Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
254 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

Thunderstorms were developing between San Angelo and Sweetwater
at 230 PM CDT, where stratus cleared early morning, and heating
was greatest. This was just east of where the short range models
were indicating development. However, the storms are still
expected to move slowly eastward this afternoon and evening in
southwest flow aloft. A few storms may also affect Crockett and
Sutton counties this evening, as storms developing off of higher
terrain in the west, move eastward.

SPC has a slight risk of storms this afternoon and evening in the
Big Country and a marginal risk across the rest of West Central
Texas. With surface based CAPES up to 3500 J/KG, severe
thunderstorms certainly possible, although 0-6 KM Bulk shears are
more in the 25 KT range. Most storms will be ending midnight.

Tuesday's weather picture is similar, with northwest flow aloft
and strong instability in the afternoon and early evening hours.
SPC has a marginal risk across the Big Country and Concho Valley.
However, placement of severe storms will be somewhat uncertain,
Areas that are absent of morning stratus will be at greatest risk.

04

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)

Tuesday night, we will see another chance for showers and
thunderstorms across the area, especially western areas. By
Wednesday afternoon, flow becomes weak northwest aloft. We will
also have strong heating and good low level moisture. With the
flow turning northwest, bulk shear values will again be
sufficient (35 to 45 knots) when combined with areas that can
destabilize to produce strong to severe thunderstorms. The main
hazards will be large hail and damaging winds.

Thunderstorm chances diminish Wednesday into Thursday as upper
level ridging builds over the area. However, with temperatures
warming, and the dryline near/along our western border, should any
storms develop, they could again be strong to severe, with the
main hazards again being large hail and damaging winds. Along with
diminishing rain chances, the ridge will also help push
temperatures into the upper 90s in many locations, with triple
digit readings not out of the question Thursday and Friday.

The ridge begins breaking down at the end of the week into
Saturday as troughing develops across the Rocky Mountains. Models
show a cold front that they originally had moving through the area
not stalling near the Red River Valley. Either way, with southwest
flow over the area, the front in the region, and the dryline still
active to our west, we will have a continued chance for showers
and thunderstorms for western and northern areas especially
through the weekend. Temperatures should also cool some as the
upper level ridge axis moves east of the area.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 68  90  65  92 /  60  30  50  20
San Angelo 	 68  94  66  96 /  40  20  50  10
Junction 	 67  92  67  96 /  20  20  30   5
Brownwood 	 68  90  65  92 /  40  40  30  10
Sweetwater 	 67  89  65  92 /  60  30  60  20
Ozona      	 70  90  65  95 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
225 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-151930-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
225 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Aftwill again beernoon and Tonight

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across the Big
Country this afternoon and evening, and a marginal risk across the
rest of West Central Texas. The primary threats are large hail and
damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Tuesday and
Wednesday, during the afternoon and evening hours. The main
potential for severe thunderstorms will be across the Big Country
and Concho Valley. The main threats are large hail and damaging
winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested this afternoon and Tuesday
afternoon.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
227 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

TXZ054-065-142000-
Nolan TX-Coke TX-
227 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL COKE AND
SOUTHWESTERN NOLAN COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

At 226 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Silver, or 17 miles west of Blackwell, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Maryneal around 300 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include the intersection Of
Ranch Road 608 And Highway 147 and I-20 Near The Nolan-Mitchell
County Line.

This includes Interstate 20 between Mile Markers 229 and 233.

LAT...LON 3229 10044 3216 10033 3198 10054 3210 10067
      3242 10066 3245 10060
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 215DEG 15KT 3214 10061

PO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
317 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

TXZ071-072-142100-
Irion TX-Tom Green TX-
317 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL TOM GREEN AND
NORTHEASTERN IRION COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 315 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Arden, or 15 miles west of San Angelo. The storm is moving slowly
northeast at around 5 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm. In addition, heavy rainfall may cause localized flooding
due to the slow movement of the storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Carlsbad around 400 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3139 10080 3154 10084 3169 10078 3169 10046
      3146 10050
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 232DEG 4KT 3151 10071

SN