Wind Advisory 1, NWS Shreveport, LA

414 
WWUS74 KSHV 031952
NPWSHV

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
252 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018

...Lake Wind Advisory has been cancelled...

TXZ096-108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150-032100-
/O.CAN.KSHV.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180504T0000Z/
Red River-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Wood-Upshur-Smith-Gregg-
Cherokee-Rusk-
Including the cities of Clarksville, Bogata, Mount Vernon, 
Mount Pleasant, Pittsburg, Daingerfield, Lone Star, Naples, 
Omaha, Mineola, Winnsboro, Quitman, Hawkins, Gilmer, Big Sandy, 
Tyler, Longview, Jacksonville, Rusk, and Henderson
252 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Shreveport has cancelled the Wind
Advisory. 

$$

19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1201 AM CDT Thu May 3 2018

.AVIATION...
For the 03/06z TAFs, convection ongoing across West Texas will
likely begin to impact portions of Southeast Oklahoma and adjacent
portions of extreme Southwest Arkansas and Northeast Texas around
03/12z. Rain chances will continue to increase from northwest to
southeast through the period, but the highest chances for
convection should be northwest of a line from KJSO to KADF. A few
storms could be severe, especially during the afternoon hours.

Ceilings are already lowering in a few locations. All terminals
are expected to experience MVFR conditions during the early
morning hours. A very slow improvement is expected after sunrise.
Most locations should improve into the VFR range around 03/18z
before ceilings lower once again late in the period.

CN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 952 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018/

UPDATE...
Lowered POPs areawide through the overnight and early morning
hours. The broken line of convection over Oklahoma and North Texas
is finally beginning to take on a more southwest-northeast
orientation. This should tend to favor an overall slower eastward
progression. Meanwhile, convection is already developing over the
Texas Hill Country between Interstates 10 and 20. Additional
development is expected northward. Through 12z, rain chances
should remain confined to areas west of a line from Jacksonville
TX to Nashville AR.

Otherwise, temperatures remain quite warm this evening with most
locations in the mid to upper 70s. Abundant cloud cover tonight
will keep overnight lows around 70 degrees F. With the exception
of POPs, the remainder of tonight's forecast looks on track.

Updated text products will be sent shortly.

CN

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018/

SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Thursday night/
Breaks in cloud cover have greatly impacted temperatures today as
areas seeing sunshine have warmed into the mid 80s while locations
blanketed in a more extensive cu field have only managed the lower
80s. Convection has been slow to develop this afternoon, but radar
trends are showing isolated showers starting to pop up over parts
of north Louisiana and south Arkansas. Expect additional scattered
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms to continue popping up
through the remainder of the afternoon over much of the area. The
loss of heating around sunset will allow much of this convection
to diminish, but have held POPs through the overnight period over
roughly the NW half of the region where enhanced SW flow aloft in
advance of the upper trough to our west will contribute to more
lift with an embedded shortwave. The SE half of the area will see
cloud cover diminish during the mid to late evening, but low level
clouds will return after midnight through Thursday morning with
low temperatures only falling into the upper 60s to lower 70s area
wide.

Similar trends will carry on through Thursday as the closed upper
low across the Four-Corners region begins to slowly lift NE across
the Rockies. The slow progression of this system will keep higher
rain chances across our NW zones through Thursday night as storms
should become more robust into the afternoon and evening Thursday
with a Slight Risk of severe storms covering the NW third of our
region in SE Oklahoma, adjacent areas of SW Arkansas, and roughly
the northern third of NE Texas. Damaging winds and large hail are
the primary concerns with any of these stronger to possibly severe
storms that develop during the peak heating hours of Thursday. The
cold front associated with this upper level system will gradually
shift SE across the Plains through late Thursday but will remain
NW of our CWA through the end of the short term forecast period.

/19/

LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday/
A very slow moving trough of low pressure will gradually push from
northwest to southeast across the region on Friday and Saturday. As
a result, the threat of showers and thunderstorms will prevail
across the ArkLaTex on Friday and Friday night, with the threat
tapering from northwest to southeast during the day on Saturday.
That being said, this line of showers and thunderstorms will likely
be elongating and potentially weaken as it pushes across the region.
Therefore, not really anticipating the threat of severe weather.
However, cannot completely rule it out either, as there is a
marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for portions of Deep East
Texas for Friday afternoon and evening, where the greatest
instability will be.  If our Deep East Texas counties do see severe
weather on Friday believe the primary threats will be large hail and
damaging winds.

Dry northwesterly flow will prevail across the region for Saturday
night through Monday, with high pressure building back across the
region on Tuesday.  As a result, warmer conditions should develop
across the region for Sunday through Tuesday, with temperatures
rebounding into the lower to mid 80s. Models are then showing at
another short wave trough moving across the central portions of the
US on Wednesday. At this time, there is some model variability as to
whether or not our region will stay dry or get clipped by the
southern portion of the front. Therefore, added a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms to southeast Oklahoma and southwest
Arkansas, but left the rest of the region dry. Palmer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  87  69  80 /  10  20  20  50
MLU  68  86  66  83 /  10  10  10  20
DEQ  69  81  65  74 /  30  70  60  50
TXK  69  84  67  74 /  10  40  40  40
ELD  68  84  68  80 /  10  20  20  40
TYR  71  85  69  76 /  20  40  30  70
GGG  71  85  69  77 /  10  30  20  50
LFK  71  86  68  84 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

09/13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
601 AM CDT Wed May 2 2018

ARZ073-LAZ003>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ152-153-165>167-031115-
Union-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-Red River-Bienville-
Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-
Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
601 AM CDT Wed May 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana and east
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

A slow moving upper level trough out to our west will result in a
gradually increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms beginning
late Thursday. A weak cold front will providing a better focus
for additional coverage of more widespread thunderstorm activity
Friday and Friday night. The cold front will gradually shift on
through the area during Saturday with the threat of showers and
thunderstorms decreasing for the latter half of the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators and storm spotters will not be needed through tonight.

ARZ060-061-070>072-LAZ001-002-TXZ112-125-126-136>138-149>151-
031115-
Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-Columbia-Caddo-Bossier-Cass-
Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-
601 AM CDT Wed May 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Arkansas, northwest Louisiana and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...
Isolated to scattered afternoon and overnight showers and
thunderstorms are expected. However...any storms are expected to
remain below severe limits and no hazardous weather is expected
at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

A slow moving upper level trough out to our west will result in a
gradually increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms beginning
Thursday afternoon. A few storms may become strong, with gusty
winds and possible hail. A weak cold front, providing a better
focus for additional coverage of more widespread thunderstorm
activity during Friday into Friday night. The cold front will
gradually shift on through the area during Saturday with the
threat of showers and thunderstorms decreasing for the latter half
of the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators and storm spotters, is not anticipated through tonight.

ARZ050-051-059-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>111-124-031115-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-McCurtain-Red River-Bowie-Franklin-
Titus-Camp-Morris-Wood-
601 AM CDT Wed May 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...
Isolated to scattered afternoon and overnight showers and
thunderstorms are expected. However...any storms are expected to
remain below severe limits and no hazardous weather is expected
at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...
A slow moving upper level trough out to our west will result in a
gradually increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms beginning
Thursday afternoon. A few storms may become strong to severe,
with strong gusty winds and possible large hail. A weak cold
front, providing a better focus for additional coverage of more
widespread thunderstorm activity during Friday into Friday night.
The cold front will gradually shift on through the area during
Saturday with the threat of showers and thunderstorms decreasing
for the latter half of the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators and storm spotters is not anticipated through tonight.

07