Special Weather Statement, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1221 PM CST Thu Nov 8 2018

.AVIATION...
For the ArkLaTex, IFR/MVFR, but some drier air improving KTXK/KELD
this aftn while the next short wave sliding down the Red River of
OK/TX will be increasing shwrs/elevated TS for our TX terminals.
IFR will increase area wide this evening as a strong cold front
begins to push in early on Friday. Winds NE today will back to N
10-20KT as conditions improve by the end of this TAF cycle.
Outlook is cold and dry with frost and light freeze N of I-20 Sat.
A Gulf low will spread more ra in later that day. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 947 AM CST Thu Nov 8 2018/

UPDATE...
Model blend rest of today pop/wx and tweak high temps.

SHORT TERM...
Low to mid 50s under cloudy skies as our dew points are drying a
bit, fog is not an issue. The coverage of moderate showers and
thunderstorms is shifting Eastward and light showers will continue
with the next impulse or short wave along the Red of OK/TX will
ramp up pops again later this afternoon into E Texas and
widespread for the overnight as the next plunge of cold air spills
out of a 1035mb high over the high plains diving South by tomorrow
afternoon. This air mass is the first in a series of arctic high
pressure systems looming for much of the country. /24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 407 AM CST Thu Nov 8 2018/

SHORT TERM...

Weak surface boundary from De Queen to Shreveport and southward to
Alexandria combined with ripples in the mid-level southwest flow
aloft allowing for showers and isolated Thunderstorms across much
of north Louisiana and portions of east Texas this morning. May
see a break in the convection later this afternoon. However,
showers and thunderstorms to return tonight as reinforcing high
pressure dives south from the Great Plains. Conditions to
gradually improve on Friday as surface and upper-ridge bring deep
layer drying to the region. However, temperatures will be the
main story in the short term with highs in the mid 50s forecast
for today and overnight lows in the upper 40s tonight. By Saturday
morning, temperatures to range from the upper 20s across
southeast Oklahoma to the lower 40s across deep east Texas. /05/

LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday/

The coolest air of the Fall season will move into the Four State
Region on Saturday morning behind Friday's front. Temperatures will
start off in the 30s across most of the region, with Freeze Warnings
likely north of the Interstate 30 corridor, where temperatures will
approach the freezing mark. With wet grounds from previous rains,
some frost could develop as far south as the Interstate 20 corridor
Sat mrng, but winds and dewpoint depression may be a bit too high
for this to occur. This will be something to monitor over the next
couple of model runs.  Overall, a partly sunny day can be expected
for most of Saturday with lgt ENE winds, and cool conditions as
temperatures will be 10-15 degrees below seasonal normals. By late
Saturday evening into Sunday, a low will develop in the Gulf near
the northern coast of Mexico. Rain chances will return to the area
during this time frame as scattered showers/t-storms will develop
near the low across south Texas and eventually spread northward into
the region. At the same time an upper trough will begin to dig
southward out of the Rockies toward region, dragging a cold front
through our area late Sunday into Monday, keeping rain chances
across the region during this period. This front will bring a
reinforcing shot of dry and cold air to the region on Tuesday and
Wednesday with high's ranging from the upper 40s north to the mid
50s south. Additional Freeze Warnings may be warranted as overnight
lows could approach the freezing mark areawide on Tues and Wed
mornings. Dry conditions will continue across the region through the
end of the work week. Temps will modify somewhat, but remain below
climatic normal. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  58  47  56  38 /  70  80  40  10
MLU  57  47  56  37 /  80  80  60  10
DEQ  54  42  55  29 /  60  70  10  10
TXK  54  44  55  33 /  40  80  10  10
ELD  56  43  56  33 /  30  80  40  10
TYR  58  46  55  37 /  70  80  30  10
GGG  58  47  56  37 /  80  90  40  10
LFK  63  51  57  42 /  50  90  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

24/05/20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1207 PM CST Thu Nov 8 2018

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-091200-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
1207 PM CST Thu Nov 8 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will increase this
afternoon across portions of East Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and
Southwest Arkansas, before spreading into Northwest Louisiana this
evening. Additional redevelopment will occur tonight over these
areas, and spread east southeast across Deep East Texas and
Northcentral Louisiana, ahead of a cold front and associated upper
level disturbance. A few of these storms may be strong this
afternoon and tonight over portions of the region, and may
produce small hail and brief heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will diminish by midday
Friday across East Texas and North Louisiana as cooler and drier
air filter southeast behind the cold front. The coldest air so far
this fall will settle into the region Friday night, with the
first freeze of the season expected by Saturday morning across
portions of extreme Northeast Texas along and north of the
Interstate 30 corridor, Southeast Oklahoma, and much of Southwest
Arkansas. Additional scattered showers will increase across the
region Saturday night through Monday, ahead of the next cold front
that will quickly move southeast into the region Monday afternoon.
This next front will reinforce even colder temperatures southward
as the rain diminishes Monday evening, with freezing temperatures
possibly reaching as far south as the Interstate 20 corridor of
East Texas and North Louisiana Tuesday morning, and areawide
Wednesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency managers, storm spotters, and amateur
radio operators, should not be needed through tonight.

15

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
108 PM CST Thu Nov 8 2018

TXZ110-124-125-081945-
Upshur TX-Camp TX-Wood TX-
108 PM CST Thu Nov 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WOOD...SOUTHWEST
CAMP...AND NORTHWEST UPSHUR COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM CST...

At 108 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pleasant Grove, or 10 miles southwest of Winnsboro, moving east at
30 mph.

Half inch hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Winnsboro, Pleasant Grove and Perryville.

LAT...LON 3295 9552 3297 9503 3285 9502 3284 9554
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 267DEG 28KT 3290 9545

15