Special Weather Statement, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
625 PM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018

.AVIATION...
Currently dealing with TS or VCTS at the SHV/MLU terminals and
this will continue for a couple hours or so this evening before we
see a quick diminishing trend on convective coverage and
intensity. Otherwise, we should see VFR conditions prevailing
through the remainder of the overnight hours.

Growing cu field on store for Saturday and have introduced VCTS
once again from 18z until the end of the TAF period at the TXK/ELD
and MLU terminals. Isolated TSRA will be possible at the SHV
terminal as well but coverage will not warrant a mention for Sat
in this taf package.

Outside of convection, expect a general SSW wind overnight less
than 10kts with SW winds prevailing for Saturday with speeds
ranging between 6-12kts.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 325 PM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018/

SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Saturday Night/
Upper ridge remains centered over the Desert SW, extending nwd
into the Rockies/wrn Plains. Upper low over the srn Great Lakes
region providing disturbed nwly flow aloft across much of the
Mid/Lower MS River Valley. One such disturbance is currently
generating widespread tstms across srn AR, and at least some
portion of these will move swd into our region along an outflow
boundary during the next few hours. Most model output, including
the HRRR, keeps much of the convection skirting just e of our
region this aftn and with another round overnight.

Tstms will remain possible, especially across our nern areas,
during the day Saturday, as another impulse rounds the upper low.
Cold front associated with the upper low will push swd into our
region late Saturday aftn/evening, providing a focus for
additional convective development overnight Saturday night,
especially as a shortwave riding over the ridge approaches from
the nw.

As for temps in the short term, have maintained a guidance/persistence
hybrid, with temps slightly cooler across our nrn and ern areas
where convection and cloud cover are likely to play a role. Heat
index values generally 100-105 degrees will be common Saturday
aftn, and some areas may even exceed 105 briefly. Sporadic
coverage and the brevity of these higher heat index values will
preclude the issuance of a Heat Advisory attm.

/12/

LONG TERM.../Sunday through Thursday Night/

Gradual cooling trend expected on Sunday and Monday as upper-
ridge shifts west. On Sunday, parts of east Texas along the
eastern periphery of the ridge will still experience high
temperatures in the mid 90s with portion of north Louisiana in the
lower 90s. Additionally, a weak frontal boundary across the
Ozarks will generate enough cloud-cover and convection to limit
high temperatues to the mid to upper 80s across these areas.

Cooling trend to continue into Monday as precipitation becomes more
widespread as surface front and broad upper-trough shift east across
the region. High temperatures on Monday forecast to climb into the
low to mid 90s areawide with the exception of the upper 80s north of
I-30.

Precipitation to end from the northwest on Monday night into Tuesday
as surface high and upper-ridge rebuild across the region. Dry
conditions expected from Tuesday through Thursday with high
temperatures forecast to range from the mid 80s to lower 90s each
day with lows in the upper 60s to around 70.

/05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  97  76  95 /  20  20  40  30
MLU  77  93  75  92 /  40  40  40  50
DEQ  73  91  73  88 /  50  30  30  60
TXK  77  93  75  90 /  30  30  30  60
ELD  75  93  75  91 /  60  40  40  60
TYR  78  98  77  95 /  10  20  20  20
GGG  78  98  76  96 /  20  20  30  20
LFK  75  96  76  96 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

05/12/13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
708 AM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-012>014-021-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-112-181100-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-Bienville-
Jackson-Ouachita-Caldwell-McCurtain-Red River-Bowie-Cass-
708 AM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas.
.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Showers and thunderstorms will be increasing during the
afternoon. Storms will be capable of producing gusty winds to
near 30 MPH, locally heavy rainfall with amounts to near one half
to one inch per hour and deadly lightning. An isolated strong to
severe thunderstorm could develop during the afternoon and evening
during maximum heating with strong damaging winds possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Showers and thunderstorms will increase in areal coverage
and intensities through the weekend and especially
for the start to the work week and through Tuesday night
and early Wednesday with the approach and passage of a cold front.
Strong to severe storms with locally heavy rainfall, strong and
damaging winds and isolated large hail will be possible Monday
and Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters will not be needed through
tonight.

LAZ010-011-017>020-022-TXZ108>111-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-
181100-
De Soto-Red River-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-La Salle-
Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-
Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-
San Augustine-
708 AM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Louisiana, northwest Louisiana, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible mainly during the
afternoon and evening. No hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Showers and thunderstorms will increase in areal coverage
and intensities through the weekend and especially
for the start to the work week and through Tuesday night
and early Wednesday with the approach and passage of a cold front.
Strong to severe storms with locally heavy rainfall, strong and
damaging winds and isolated large hail will be possible Monday
and Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters will not be needed through tonight.

06

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
549 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018

LAZ013-014-021-172315-
Caldwell LA-Ouachita LA-Jackson LA-
549 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL...
SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON AND SOUTHWESTERN OUACHITA PARISHES UNTIL 615 PM
CDT...

At 548 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 17
miles southeast of Ruston. This storm was nearly stationary.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Chatham, Eros, Luna, Vixen and Lapine.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3239 9256 3243 9221 3220 9218 3216 9255
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 347DEG 4KT 3234 9244

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
550 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018

LAZ002-003-012-172315-
Bossier LA-Bienville LA-Webster LA-
550 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN WEBSTER...NORTHWESTERN
BIENVILLE AND EAST CENTRAL BOSSIER PARISHES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 550 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sibley, or 7 miles southwest of Minden, moving southwest at 5 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Minden, Ringgold, Sibley, Doyline, Dubberly, Dixie Inn, Heflin, Noles
Landing, Lake Bistineau North, Plum Orchard Landing, Ogden and
Curtis.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3263 9336 3255 9316 3232 9327 3248 9353
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 042DEG 6KT 3252 9334

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
557 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018

LAZ001-002-172330-
Bossier LA-Caddo LA-
557 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CADDO AND SOUTH
CENTRAL BOSSIER PARISHES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

At 557 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Bossier City. This storm was nearly stationary.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Shreveport, Bossier City, Fosters, Taylortown, Elm Grove, Robson,
Forbing, Sligo, Barksdale Air Force Base and Red Chute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3227 9356 3230 9364 3232 9366 3232 9369
      3233 9370 3232 9371 3233 9374 3234 9375
      3235 9377 3234 9378 3236 9384 3257 9365
      3246 9350
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 012DEG 3KT 3240 9367

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
720 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018

LAZ001-010-180045-
De Soto LA-Caddo LA-
720 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DE SOTO AND
SOUTHWESTERN CADDO PARISHES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

At 719 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Stonewall, or 12 miles south of Shreveport. This storm was nearly
stationary.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Stonewall, Keachi, Gloster, Kickapoo, Keithville and Reeds Store.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3237 9387 3231 9369 3211 9374 3225 9401
TIME...MOT...LOC 0019Z 030DEG 3KT 3229 9381

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
727 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018

LAZ020-022-180100-
La Salle LA-Grant LA-
727 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN GRANT AND LA SALLE
PARISHES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

At 727 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Olla, or 22 miles south of Columbia, moving south
at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jena, Olla, Midway, Urania, Tullos, Georgetown, Zenoria and Rochelle.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3161 9243 3180 9237 3180 9236 3181 9236
      3182 9234 3185 9233 3185 9234 3186 9232
      3189 9233 3189 9232 3191 9231 3192 9201
      3162 9201
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 017DEG 10KT 3180 9219

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
821 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018

LAZ020-022-180200-
La Salle LA-Grant LA-
821 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GRANT AND CENTRAL LA SALLE
PARISHES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

At 820 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Wallace Ridge to 11 miles northeast of
Colfax. Movement was south at 12 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Alexandria, Jena, Colfax, Midway, Pollock, Dry Prong, Nebo, Rogers,
Catahoula Lake, Bentley, Lake Iatt, Fishville and Williana.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3138 9212 3142 9216 3147 9216 3148 9218
      3139 9263 3139 9266 3141 9267 3140 9269
      3141 9270 3142 9268 3143 9269 3145 9268
      3145 9271 3147 9271 3147 9269 3151 9271
      3171 9268 3173 9201 3137 9201
TIME...MOT...LOC 0120Z 357DEG 13KT 3168 9178 3166 9260

24