Severe Thunderstorm Warning 189, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
444 PM CDT Sun Aug 12 2018

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night/

The combination of an upper level low pressure system over West
Texas, Western Oklahoma and Southeast new Mexico and an upper
level building ridge of high pressure across the Northern
Gulf of Mexico will continue to help with a North drifting
warm front over the Four State Region to produce showers and
thunderstorms overnight and into the start of the work week.
Drier air working into the more southern areas will result
in decreasing chances of rain, however the upper low will
remain a focus for showers and thunderstorms for the Northwest
and Northern areas as it remains situated between an upper level
ridge of high pressure over the Western and Eastern conus. A
series of disturbances will be rounding the base of the upper
trough keeping higher rain chances for areas along and near
and to the North of the Interstate 30 corridor. Daytime high
temperatures will remain cooler in the regions of rainfall and
thicker cloud cover and range from the lower to middle 80s
but where clouds decrease and void of wetting rainfall
temperatures will climb in to the 90s. /06/

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday/

Closed upper level low largely responsible for much of our rainfall
over the past few days will continue to gradually lift northward
across the Southern Plains and mid MS Valley through early to mid
week. As a result, expect rain chances to remain in the forecast for
the roughly the northern half of our region through Wednesday night.
By Thursday into Friday, increasing southerly flow will allow return
of seabreeze convection which will also be aided by another strong
shortwave trough diving south across the Plains to provide better
chances of more scattered convection. In the meantime, expect a
gradual climb in temperatures back closer to seasonal averages with
highs in the lower to mid 90s through much of the week. Northern
areas may see temperatures held down just a bit due to more cloud
cover and better overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms.

Rain chances will continue into the weekend, albeit slightly lower
with weak upper ridging slowly nudging eastward into the region by
late Saturday into Sunday. However, recent rain and any additional
amounts that we accumulate through this week will certainly be most
welcome as our drought conditions see some much needed improvement.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 206 PM CDT Sun Aug 12 2018/

AVIATION...

For the 12/18Z terminal forecast will have a mix of VFR and
lowering to MVFR in showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy
rainfall and visibility restrictions. Could see IFR at times
during the onset of thunderstorms this afternoon and early
evening. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop overnight and into Monday. Will prevail IFR flight
categories between 13/08Z-13/14Z for most of the sites. Surface
winds will be light and variable to variable 5-10 knots through
the period with higher gusts near and in thunderstorms from 15-25
knots. /06/The combination of an upper level low pressure system over West
Texas, Western Oklahoma and Southeast new Mexico and an upper
level building ridge of high pressure across the Northern
Gulf of Mexico will continue to help with a North drifting
warm front over the Four State Region to produce showers and
thunderstorms overnight and into the start of the work week.
Drier air working into the more southern areas will result
in decreasing chances of rain, however the upper low will
remain a focus for showers and thunderstorms for the Northwest
and Northern areas. Relative humidity levels will remain
elevated and the wetting rains will help the previous dry
conditions. A middle conus trough will remain situated between
high pressure ridges aloft over the Eastern and Western sections
of the country for much of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  92  72  94 /  30  20  10  10
MLU  73  92  72  94 /  30  20  10  10
DEQ  72  83  70  87 /  50  50  40  30
TXK  72  87  72  90 /  40  30  30  20
ELD  72  90  71  93 /  30  20  10  10
TYR  74  90  73  93 /  40  30  20  10
GGG  74  91  72  93 /  40  20  20  10
LFK  74  94  72  94 /  40  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...The combination of an upper level low pressure system over West
Texas, Western Oklahoma and Southeast new Mexico and an upper
level building ridge of high pressure across the Northern
Gulf of Mexico will continue to help with a North drifting
warm front over the Four State Region to produce showers and
thunderstorms overnight and into the start of the work week.
Drier air working into the more southern areas will result
in decreasing chances of rain, however the upper low will
remain a focus for showers and thunderstorms for the Northwest
and Northern areas. Relative humidity levels will remain
elevated and the wetting rains will help the previous dry
conditions. A middle conus trough will remain situated between
high pressure ridges aloft over the Eastern and Western sections
of the country for much of the work week.AR...None. LA...None.
OK...None. TX...None. &&

06/19

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1201 PM CDT Sun Aug 12 2018

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-131715-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
1201 PM CDT Sun Aug 12 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to
develop this afternoon. Some storms may produce gusty winds and
brief but heavy rainfall that may result in some minor flooding of
low lying and poor drainage areas during the afternoon and early
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to be possible on Monday.
Locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds and frequent lightning could
occur in stronger storms. Showers and thunderstorms will become
more isolated in coverage for the middle and latter part of the
upcoming work week, and will be confined mainly to areas north of
Interstate 20.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency managers, spotter networks, and amateur
radio operators will not be be required through tonight.

19

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