Severe Thunderstorm Warning 160, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
248 PM CDT Fri Jul 6 2018

.SHORT TERM...
Scattered convection quickly erupted across ne TX around noon with
cells quickly movg to the west as our area located in the se
sector of large upper ridge over central high plains.  In this
scenario, any cell will produce stg gusty winds and larger storms
can easily produce damaging wind gusts. More isold cells covering
entire remainder of cwa. Backdoor cold front still well north over
mid mississippi river valley with considerable dewpoint pooling
seen south of front. As this front and moisture convergence makes
its way towards area this weekend, expect greater coverage of
storms into the wknd. Will see relief from daytime highs as high
temps this wknd either side of 90 degrees depending on sky cover
in the aftn./07/.

LONG TERM.../Sunday through Friday Night/

The end of the weekend into much of next week will remain unsettled
across our region which as far as rainfall goes is good news.
Expansive upper ridging will dominate much of the center of the
country, extending from the Four Corners Region through the upper
midwest and into the Ohio Valley. Weak troughing will exist to the
south of this ridge axis, or across our region of the country and
thus we will maintain good chances for rain into early next week.

By the middle and latter half of the work week, the eastern flank of
this ridge axis appears to get replaced by a trough of low pressure
aloft that will extend from New England southward across the
Appalachian chain but there will remain a strong shear axis in place
across our region which will continue to focus at least scattered
diurnally driven convection across portions of our region each day.

Did not stray too far from MOS temps concerning overnight lows or
daytime highs but did raise Max temps a few degrees towards the
later extended periods.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 104 PM CDT Fri Jul 6 2018/

AVIATION...
Scattered convection has rapidly begun to develop across the
general Interstate corridor region of ne TX and nw La. Vcnty tstms
currently at kshv, kggg, and ktyr, and can be expected areawide
this aftn. Expect a similar day to yesterday with storms tracking
from the e-ne with gusty winds of 40+ kts possible in larger
cells which will diminish by sunset. Mostly vfr conditions with ne
winds becmg lgt overnight. A weak frontal boundary will slowly
approach area Saturday, with convection possibly increasing even
more just after the end of the 07/18z fcst cycle./07/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1131 AM CDT Fri Jul 6 2018/

UPDATE...
Late morning temps rising to upper 80s to around 90. Have bumped
up temps a degree or two at some locations, and expect aftn highs
mainly in upper 90s given trends as well as looking back at
yesterday. Dewpoints not mixing out much so far and mainly in
middle 70s. So although heat advisory criteria will be met for
much of the area today, a not so hot Saturday will negate the 2
consecutive day criteria met issuance of heat advisory. Have
adjusted aftn pops to a more smooth chance category. However, do
expect any storms that develop to move sewd in deep ne flow,
similar to yesterday, with gusty winds pretty much occurring in
most cells./07/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  91  73  92 /  30  40  30  70
MLU  76  90  72  91 /  20  60  50  70
DEQ  73  91  70  90 /  30  30  20  30
TXK  75  90  72  90 /  30  40  30  50
ELD  74  89  71  90 /  20  50  40  60
TYR  76  93  73  91 /  40  40  30  60
GGG  76  92  73  91 /  40  40  30  60
LFK  75  91  73  90 /  40  50  40  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1250 PM CDT Fri Jul 6 2018

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-071100-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
1250 PM CDT Fri Jul 6 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

An Easterly flow aloft will persist across the Four State Region
with embedded disturbances expected to combine with available
moisture and daytime heating resulting in destabilization,
The result will be scattered showers and thunderstorms during the
afternoon and evening. A few of the thunderstorms will become
strong with gusty winds to 25-35 MPH, locally heavy rainfall with
amounts to near one quarter to one half inch, and deadly
lightning. Any hail that falls will be small. An isolated
severe storm could form with winds to near 60 MPH but that threat
is very small.

In addition, afternoon temperatures will climb into the middle
and upper 90s and when combined with the relative humidity can
produce heat indices from 100-108 degrees. If working or
venturing outside While outside, remember to take frequent breaks
in the shade, wear light weight clothing and drink plenty of
water.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Rain chances to continue through next week, as a series of
tropical waves progressing across the Gulf Coast States and
embedded disturbances within the Easterly flow aloft will
aid in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms. A
weak cold front moving in Saturday will serve as an additional
focus for precipitation. Isolated strong to severe storms will be
possible, with damaging winds and brief heavy rainfall the main
threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency managers, amateur radio operators, and
storm spotters, is not expected through tonight.

06

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