River Flood Warning 82, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
807 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018

.UPDATE...

Updated to include mention of the new severe thunderstorm watch
number 415 for parts of East and Northeast Texas that includes 8
counties. The watch will be in effect until midnight unless
cancelled early.

&&

.AVIATION...

For the 15/00Z terminal forecast will have VFR prevailing for
most sites for the start pf the period but a fast moving cold
front entering Northeast Texas and across Southwest Arkansas will
move through producing a chance for showers and thunderstorms near
the boundary and in its wake. In wake of the colder surge of air
MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility restrictions will then prevail
into much of the day Monday. Surface winds will be light and
variable ahead of the front to light South and then shift to the
Northwest to North and increase to 6-12 knots with passage of
front. During the mid morning hours the winds will increase to
10-15 knots with higher gusts of 17-25 knots. The winds will
continue to remain elevated after 16/00Z. With the strong
surge of cold low level air, cloud see low level wind shear./06/

&&

.LONG TERM...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 424 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018/

SHORT TERM...
Thunderstorm chances will increase overnight as a strong cold
front approaches the area. Low lvl shear in sw flow will allow
for possibility of storm rotation and a few storms may become svr,
especially over ne TX tonight. The cold front will move across nrn
portions of the region tonight and remaining portions on Monday.
Nrn portions of area will see falling daytime temps durg the day
Monday with gusty northerly winds around 15 mph and widespread
rain. Widespread rain will continue across most of the region
thru Monday night. /07/

LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Saturday Night/

Unsettled pattern will continue through next week as southwest flow
aloft prevails behind the strong early season cold front. Very cool
post-frontal air mass will result in high temperatures on Tuesday in
the upper 40s north and ranging through the 50s farther south with
widespread rain. Persistent overrunning conditions will keep high
rain chances in the forecast through Tuesday night before tapering
off through mid week aside from a few isolated showers on Wednesday
and Thursday. Temperatures will gradually moderate through Thursday
with highs climbing back into the 60s to lower 70s south.

Rain chances will begin to ramp back up on Friday through the first
half of the weekend with another cold front advancing through the
region. Rain should exit the region on Saturday night, salvaging the
last half of the weekend. Temperatures will only be slightly cooler
behind this weekend cold front, generally holding in the mid to
upper 60s through the weekend with lows in the mid 40s north to
lower and mid 50s south. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  63  63  51  52 /  60  80  80  90
MLU  71  75  53  54 /  20  40  60  60
DEQ  53  55  48  48 /  80  90  90  90
TXK  54  55  47  48 /  70  90  80  90
ELD  64  65  48  49 /  50  70  70  80
TYR  52  53  48  50 /  70  90  90  90
GGG  56  57  50  51 /  60  90  90  90
LFK  63  64  55  57 /  40  60  80  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

06/07/19

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1205 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-151715-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
1205 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible today across
portions of Deep East Texas, North Louisiana, and Southcentral
Arkansas, near a warm front that will linger over the area today.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase this
evening across Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and Southwest
Arkansas, along and just ahead of a southeast moving cold front
that will move into the area. These storms may move into portions
of Northwest Louisiana later tonight, with enough forcing and
instability to warrant the potential for isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms containing damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall,
and possibly an isolated tornado. Additional showers and embedded
thunderstorms are expected to develop tonight behind the front
across Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and Southwest
Arkansas, which may produce additional heavy rainfall at times.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to develop behind
the cold front Monday as it moves through the remainder of East
Texas and North Louisiana, while gradually shifting southeast
across the region. The threat for thunderstorms will diminish by
Monday night, although areas of showers will continue to develop
and linger across much of the region through Tuesday night before
diminishing late. Brief periods of heavy rainfall will be
possible, which may result in minor flooding of low lying, poor
drainage areas especially across portions of Northeast Texas,
Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas, and Northwest Louisiana.
Additional scattered showers will be possible Thursday night
through Saturday across the region, as a series of upper level
disturbances shift northeast over the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency managers, storm spotters, and amateur
radio operators, may be needed tonight across Northeast Texas,
Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas, and Northwest Louisiana.

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
558 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0519 PM     TORNADO          7 SW BECKVILLE          32.17N 94.55W
10/13/2018                   PANOLA             TX   NWS STORM SURVEY

            AN EF-0 TORNADO BEGAN ALONG FM 1251 AND
            SNAPPED AND UPROOTED NUMEROUS TREES ALONG A
            1.3 MILE PATH BEFORE LIFTING JUST NORTH OF
            CR 241 . MAXIMUM WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 85
            MPH AND THE PATH WIDTH WAS 40 YARDS.

&&

BR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
614 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2018

ARZ073-142330-
Union AR-
614 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY UNTIL
630 PM CDT...

At 614 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Moro Bay State Park, or 14 miles northwest of Huttig, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Moro Bay State Park, New London and Pigeon Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3310 9232 3326 9243 3330 9235 3328 9234
      3328 9233 3326 9232 3328 9230 3326 9229
      3327 9228 3325 9227 3325 9223 3323 9223
      3323 9222 3321 9223 3320 9220 3321 9218
      3319 9218 3318 9216
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 239DEG 31KT 3323 9230

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
756 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2018

TXZ124-150145-
Wood TX-
756 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WOOD COUNTY UNTIL
845 PM CDT...

At 756 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Pleasant Grove to near Hainesville to
Mineola. Movement was east northeast at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Mineola, Winnsboro, Quitman, Pleasant Grove, Hoard, Hainesville and
Perryville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
northeastern Texas.

LAT...LON 3266 9554 3273 9545 3293 9540 3296 9522
      3296 9517 3297 9517 3297 9515 3280 9515
      3266 9527 3261 9548 3262 9551 3262 9552
      3263 9551
TIME...MOT...LOC 0056Z 256DEG 18KT 3288 9534 3275 9537 3265 9549

13

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