River Flood Warning 68, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
609 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

.AVIATION...
Showers and thunderstorms to exit the region to the south and east
through 04/06Z with the passage of a cold front. Conditions
forecast to improve overnight behind the front with southwest
winds 15 knots becoming northwest at 15 to 20 knots. Winds to
diminish and become northeast at 10 to 15 knots on Wednesday.
/05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 519 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Grids and text products have been updated for the issuance of WW
#28 and the clearing of some of our northwestern counties out of
WW #25. Most of the convection immediately along the front has
dissipated as it encountered overturned air from the complex
currently ongoing from Lower Toledo Bend Reservoir to KELD. Some
convection continues just to the west of the CWA and redevelopment
cannot be completely ruled out along the frontal boundary.
Therefore, the remainder of WW #25 will continue through the
expiration time of 23z.

/09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Two areas of convection are ongoing. Along and south of Interstate
20, a cluster of storms is moving east-northeast into Northwest
Louisiana and will eventually impact portions of North Central
Louisiana and Southern Arkansas. Surface-based CAPE values are
above 2000 J/kg, per the 18z KSHV sounding. This should be more
than enough instability to maintain updrafts and continue the
potential for large hail. Damaging winds will also be a threat
with these storms, especially if any bowing segments develop. Low
level shear profiles are not overly impressive, but isolated
tornadoes cannot be ruled out especially if any bookend vortex or
embedded supercell structures develop.

Farther to the north, a broken line of robust convection has
developed immediately ahead of an advancing cold front. Large hail
and damaging winds will also be the primary threats with this
activity. Similar to the environment farther south, low level
shear profiles are not very conducive for tornadoes. However, as
long as these cells remain semi-discrete, tornado potential cannot
be ruled completely out. As the expected QLCS becomes more solid,
the associated cold pool and the passage of an upper trough axis
should allow the cold front to surge southeast across the area
this evening. The severe weather threat with this system is a bit
more uncertain later tonight. The southern convective cluster may
overturn the atmosphere and decrease instability. This should
cause the intensity of the QLCS along the cold front to diminish
somewhat as it progresses farther southeast. Re-intensification
may occur across our farther south and east Louisiana parishes
depending on the progress of the first complex. In short, it's
quite the messy scenario tonight. The last of the convection
should completely exit the area by 06z or 07z tonight.

Drier air, clear skies, and much cooler temperatures are expected
in the wake of the front. Some locations in northern McCurtain
County may fall to near or just below freezing tonight/Wednesday
morning. Daytime temperatures on Wednesday will only warm into the
60s. Temperatures will quickly warm Thursday and Friday ahead of
the next storm system. Thunderstorms will develop Friday and
spread across the area Friday and into Saturday ahead of another
cold front. Severe weather will be possible again with this
system. Latest model guidance suggests there will be quite a bit
of post-frontal precip on Saturday, especially across Louisiana.

After a dry Sunday, a progressive upper flow pattern will bring
another upper trough and cold front, and more thunderstorm
chances, into the area early next week.

/09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  45  65  42  71 /  70   0   0   0
MLU  46  63  40  71 / 100   0   0   0
DEQ  35  62  36  68 /  20   0   0  10
TXK  38  61  39  70 /  30   0   0   0
ELD  41  62  37  70 /  70   0   0  10
TYR  42  64  43  72 /  30   0   0   0
GGG  43  65  42  71 /  40   0   0   0
LFK  48  70  44  75 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

05/09

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
610 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072-LAZ001>003-010-017-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-041100-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-De Soto-Sabine-McCurtain-Red River-
Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-
Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-
San Augustine-
610 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Arkansas, northwest Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and
northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

A few strong thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of a cold
front. The strongest storms may product gusty winds, small hail,
and brief heavy rainfall. However, severe weather is not
anticipated.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

A series of storm systems will bring thunderstorms to the region
late Thursday night through Saturday and then again Sunday and
Monday. Although uncertainty exists, a few severe storms Friday
and Friday night cannot be ruled out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters is not anticipated through tonight.

ARZ073-LAZ004>006-011>014-018>022-041100-
Union-Claiborne-Lincoln-Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-
Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-
610 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, north central Louisiana and northwest Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 10 PM tonight.

Strong to severe storms will be possible along and ahead of a
cold front that will move through the region this afternoon and
tonight. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary
threats, but isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Otherwise,
gusty southerly winds will make for hazardous boating conditions
on area lakes today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

A series of storm systems will bring showers and thunderstorms to
the region late Thursday night through Saturday and then again
Sunday and Monday. Although uncertainty exists, a few severe
storms Friday and Friday night cannot be ruled out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters will likely be needed this
afternoon and tonight.

09