River Flood Warning 48, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1107 AM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Minor changes to the current forecast which was to raise the high
temperature for the afternoon for areas along and to the South of
Interstate 20 which may not affect the wording in the zones.
Also adjusted the winds due to a tightening pressure gradient
across East and Northeast Texas and Northwest Louisiana. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 703 AM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018/

AVIATION...
For the ArkLaTex, a weak fropa is now stationary over NE TX, NW LA
and NE LA. This boundary has NE light winds to the N and SE winds
to the S. Sfc winds are only around 5KT attm, but will mix down
S/SW gusts w/ heating. Climb winds are S/SE 15 KT to SW 30 KT by
3kft. SW flow extends into mid levels slowly increasing in speed
with due W winds aloft for flight levels around 50KT. Isold
shwr/TSTM possible vcty boundary, but none in TAFS until mid to
late Tuesday with heavy convection training over area for Wed.
/24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 AM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Swly flow aloft continues to take shape across our region, as
large-scale upper trof digs sewd across srn CA. As a result,
moisture continues to increase at all levels. A tightening
pressure gradient today will allow for gusty winds to develop.
However, latest model blends keep wind speeds just below Lake Wind
Advisory criteria. This seems reasonable as low level clouds are
likely to linger through most of the day, effectively inhibiting
the stronger winds from mixing down to the sfc.

Series of weak disturbances will interact with a stalled boundary
across our nrn sections today, bringing a few shwrs/tstms to
these areas. However, as we move into Tuesday, a slow-moving cold
front will begin to serve as a focus for more widespread
convection, initially across portions of N TX/central OK. This
will gradually spread ewd into our region as the now closed upper
low/cold front inch ewd. Cold front looks to slow even more by
Wednesday, incidentally as it bisects the ArkLaTex, which will set
us up to receive the heavy rainfall that has been advertised in
the models over the last several days. The NAM seems to be a bit
slower than other models, but otherwise generally good consensus
on location of heavy rainfall axis and amounts remains between the
GFS/Euro/Canadian. That said, axis of 4-6 inch amounts from near
Shreveport up through Pine Bluff AR, with widespread 3-4 inch
totals elsewhere, appear reasonable. We will likely be discussing
the potential issuance of a Flood Watch in the next few fcst
cycles, as the potential for training storms and isold higher
amounts certainly exists for at least portions of the region. In
addition to the flood potential with this storm system, moderate
instability and ample deep layer shear will allow for a few storms
to become severe, with large hail and damaging winds the primary
threats.

Convection to continue to slowly push ewd through Thursday before
finally coming to an effective end by late Thursday/early Friday.
Secondary impulse may bring a few sct shwrs to the region Friday,
but the impact would be minimal.

Sfc high pressure to settle in over the region under wnwly flow
aloft late Friday. Flow to become more zonal and disturbed during
the weekend, as sfc ridge departs to the e, and some sct
convection may be possible. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  68  82  66 /  10  30  40  80
MLU  83  66  80  68 /  10  20  30  60
DEQ  77  65  76  57 /  20  50  90 100
TXK  80  66  79  60 /  20  30  70 100
ELD  80  66  80  64 /  10  30  40 100
TYR  83  68  79  61 /  20  30  70 100
GGG  83  68  82  64 /  20  30  40 100
LFK  86  68  82  68 /  20  20  30  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

06/24/12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1217 PM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-271100-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
1217 PM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

A few thunderstorms will be possible, mainly along and North of
Interstate 30.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Thunderstorms will increase Tuesday and Tuesday night across much
of the Four State Region with locally heavy rainfall as early as
Tuesday night, generally between the Interstate 30 and Interstate
20 corridors. A chance for isolated severe thunderstorms capable
of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts will increase.
The threat for heavy rainfall, flooding, and severe storms will
gradually shift Southeast late Wednesday into early Thursday, and
eventually out of the region by Thursday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters will not be needed through
tonight.

06