Freeze Warning 5, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1200 AM CST Mon Nov 12 2018

.AVIATION...

For the 12/06Z TAF period, ceilings continue to deteriorate as
widespread shwrs and isolated tstms expand northward overnight.
Look for IFR/LIFR ceilings and vsbys to overtake all sites during
the early morning hours as rainfall intensity further increases.
Poor flight conditions will prevail through the remainder of the
period on Monday as a strong cold front sweeps across the region.
E/NE winds tonight will shift N/NW with fropa on Monday as speeds
increase to around 15 kts with higher gusts as high as 25-30 kts
from late Monday morning through Monday afternoon. Convection will
begin to slowly end from west to east late Monday through Monday
night as the cold front clears the region.

/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1012 PM CST Sun Nov 11 2018/

UPDATE...

Moisture continues to surge northeast across our region ahead of a
sfc low tracking up along the Texas coast this evening. The result
is widespread shwrs and a few embedded tstms lifting northeastward
across the Four-State region. This trend will continue overnight
as further enhancement of convection is aided by a deep upper level
trough swinging out across the Plains accompanied by a strong cold
front. For the update this evening, did make some adjustments to
temperatures to better reflect ongoing observations and expected
trends over the next several hours. Otherwise, no other changes
are needed at this time. All updated text products have been sent.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  44  44  36  46 / 100 100  30  10
MLU  45  47  38  46 / 100 100  50  10
DEQ  40  40  28  40 / 100 100  20   0
TXK  41  41  32  43 / 100 100  20  10
ELD  41  42  33  44 / 100 100  30  10
TYR  44  44  30  43 / 100 100  20  10
GGG  43  43  33  44 / 100 100  20  10
LFK  46  50  36  46 / 100 100  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

19

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1147 AM CST Sun Nov 11 2018

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-121800-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
1147 AM CST Sun Nov 11 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered showers across mainly the southern half of the Four
State Region will become more widespread overnight, along with a
few thunderstorms possible. Rainfall amounts along and south of
the Interstate 20 corridor could total between one and two inches
through sunrise Monday Morning with lighter amounts north of the
corridor. Otherwise, no hazardous weather is anticipated through
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Rain will continue to be widespread across the entire Four State
Region on Monday before tapering off from northwest to southeast
Monday Night. An additional one half to over one inch of rain
possible Monday through Monday evening. Colder air will penetrate
the region Monday Night and a quick transition to some light snow
or snow flurries cannot be ruled out across portions of the
Middle Red River Valley of extreme Northeast Texas, Southeast
Oklahoma and the adjacent counties in Southwest Arkansas Monday
Evening before the precipitation comes to an end. No accumulation
is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters will not be needed this afternoon
or tonight.

07