Flash Flood Warning 41, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1009 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.UPDATE...

Strong overrunning conditions from SW flow aloft will keep rain
going well on through tonight over the region. Intensity has begun
slack off in some areas, but moderate to heavy pockets of rain are
still noted over much of deep east Texas and into northwest and
north central Louisiana. For this update, POPs were increased
nearly across the board with no signs of rain ending anytime soon.
Temperatures continue to dip a few more degrees in the wake of the
cold front, but they should begin to hold steady after midnight
with overcast conditions and persistent rain. Thus, no additional
changes are needed at this time. Updated text products have been
issued.

/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 751 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018/

AVIATION...

For the 16/00Z TAFs, IFR/MVFR cigs to prevail, possibly with some
intermittent LIFR cigs at times, with widespread rain overtaking
all terminals during this period. Little if any change in these
conditions is expected, but vsbys may fluctuate due to rainfall
intensity. Otherwise, look for brisk northerly winds around 10 kts
with occasional higher gusts between 15-20 kts. Winds quickly
shift S/SW around 5Kft above the surface with speeds gradually
increasing to near 50 kts at 30Kft.

/19/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018/

SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Tuesday Night/
Cold and rainy short-term period ahead. Cold front has made it
completely s of our region this aftn, with portions of our n and w
already down into the 40s. CAA to continue to lead to falling
temps through tonight. Temps to hold near-steady thereafter, as
multiple rounds of rain move overhead.

Disturbed swly flow aloft to overrun the cold airmass at the sfc,
producing strong isentropic lift resulting in widespread rainfall
throughout the pd. Rain will likely be heaviest along the 850 mb
front, but models do not completely agree as to where this will
set up. Have stayed more with the Euro solution with respect to
placement of the heavier rain/higher PoPs, as it seems to split
the model differences.

Rain to begin letting up towards the end of the pd, as the upper
ridge over the se CONUS begins to nose back wwd. /12/

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Monday/
Upper level cut off low sw states bringing sw flow into area will
be replaced by nw flow aloft as upper ridging develops over
Cascades, spilling Canadian air back into region and bringing in
drier air aloft on Wednesday. Tapering off rain chances durg the
day from the north.

This relief from the rain may be short lived as Pacific moisture
around base of upper low over sw states begins to overrun the
shallow colder air over east TX. GFS aggressive bringing moisture
back into area on Thursday with ecmwf and nam much more gradual
and begin to bring -ra into area on Friday. As the closed upper
low opens up and kicks out across plains, cold front will approach
area in nw flow. Rain chances to become more widespread mainly
Friday night into early Saturday, and then will decrease from the
north later on Saturday as this front pushes across the region.
This reinforcing shot of cooler air will keep the autumn temps
across the region with overnight lows in 50s and possibly into 40s
with radiation cooling by later in the wknd, and daytime highs
mostly in the 60s. /07/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  53  49  62 /  90  90  60  20
MLU  51  54  49  63 /  60  70  60  20
DEQ  45  50  46  65 /  80  80  50  10
TXK  46  48  45  62 /  90  90  60  10
ELD  46  51  47  62 /  80  80  60  10
TYR  46  50  47  60 /  90  90  60  30
GGG  48  51  48  60 /  90  90  60  30
LFK  53  54  51  62 /  90  70  50  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

19/12/07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
358 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-162100-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
358 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

A strong cold front will continue to shift southeast across Deep
East Texas and North Louisiana this afternoon. Widespread light
and moderate rain well behind this front will slowly spread across
the region later today and tonight. Brief periods of heavy
rainfall will be possible, with rainfall amounts of one to three
inches expected through late tonight. This may result in minor
flooding of low lying, poor drainage areas, as grounds are nearly
saturated in the wake of above normal rainfall that has fallen
since early September.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Showers will remain widespread over much of the region Tuesday,
before gradually diminishing Tuesday night. Showers will begin to
increase once again from the west Thursday night and Friday as a
series of upper level disturbances move back over the area. These
showers will begin to diminish from north to south Saturday as
another cold front quickly shifts south over the area, reinforcing
cooler and drier air back south for the latter half of the
weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency managers, spotter networks, and amateur
radio operators, will not be needed today or tonight.

12