Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Shreveport, LA

061 
WGUS54 KSHV 211538
FFWSHV
OKC089-TXC037-159-387-449-211845-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180221T1845Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
938 AM CST WED FEB 21 2018

The National Weather Service in Shreveport has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  McCurtain County in southeastern Oklahoma...
  Franklin County in northeastern Texas...
  Northwestern Bowie County in northeastern Texas...
  Titus County in northeastern Texas...
  Red River County in northeastern Texas...

* Until 1245 PM CST

* At 936 AM CST, local law enforcement continued to report heavy 
  rain across the warned area. Up to three to four inches of rain 
  have already fallen. Flash flooding is already occurring in some 
  areas.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Mount Pleasant, Winnsboro, Clarksville, Hagansport, Boxelder,
  Idabel, Broken Bow, Mount Vernon, De Kalb, Bogata, Scroggins,
  Purley, Dalby Springs, Wilkerson, Bagwell, Manchester, Wright City,
  Valliant, Detroit and Winfield.

Additional rainfall amounts of 2 inches or more are possible in the 
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.

&&

LAT...LON 3451 9446 3364 9449 3333 9473 3332 9478
      3336 9481 3307 9503 3303 9513 3296 9517
      3296 9531 3386 9531 3391 9528 3389 9526
      3396 9523 3394 9516 3424 9515 3425 9505
      3451 9505

$$

19

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1208 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

.AVIATION...
For the 21/06z TAFs, widespread convection persists along South
Texas, towards the ArkLaTex, and towards the confluence of the
Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. These showers and storms are training
near the vicinity of a cold front, which is located from north of
KPSN, to KTYR, to just west of KTXK, to near KHOT. The front and
the associated convection will continue to gradually advance east
and southeast across the area over the next 24 hours. The front
will become quasi-stationary across the region allowing convection
to prevail at all TAFs for most of the period. Flight conditions
will continue to deteriorate as terminals become more impacted by
the precip. IFR/LIFR conditions will prevail for most locations
after 21/12z. Winds will become northerly behind the front, and
speeds should remain between 7 and 12 kts.

Note: Amendments remain unscheduled for KELD because the ASOS is
unreliable and no backup observations are available.

CN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 915 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018/

UPDATE...
Not seeing the bowing/discrete structure in the pre-frontal
storms we saw earlier this evening across portions of Northeast
Texas into Southwest Arkansas with the prefrontal activity quickly
decreasing in coverage and intensity. What is continuing to
blossom is the convection immediately on the front and in the wake
of the frontal boundary with regional radar mosaics showing
convection well west of the I-45 Corridor of Central Texas.

Latest 00z NAM output showing the frontal boundary, which as of
03z was oriented near a DeQueen, Arkansas, Mineola, Texas line,
will continue moving very slowly south and east overnight and
should be just northwest of the Shreveport/Bossier City metro area
by 12z Wed. Thus, convection should continue to build and expand
south and east overnight, encompassing all but our southeast half.
There is good agreement in the latest HRRR and 00z NAM that our
southeast zones should see very little if any precipitation
overnight so have lowered pops across these zones. Otherwise kept
heavy rainfall wording across the Watch area overnight with the
heavier downpours likely not reaching Northwest Louisiana until
near or shortly after sunrise.

Updated hourly grids to mimic current conditions and to account
for the frontal movement into our northwest zones but otherwise,
forecast is in good shape.

Update out shortly...13.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 554 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018/

AVIATION...
For the 21/00z TAFs, convection is likely to affect all TAF sites
this period as a strong cold front gradually move into and across
the area. Flight conditions will vary initially, but IFR/LIFR
ceilings and visibilities are expected at most sites, especially
after 21/06z, as the convection spreads southeast across the
region. The front will become stationary across the area, which
should allow showers and thunderstorms to prevail at most TAF
sites for much of the period.

Note: Amendments are not currently scheduled for KELD because the
ASOS is down, and there are no backup observation facilities.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  64  64  53  67 /  90 100 100  60
MLU  67  73  56  72 /  30 100 100  80
DEQ  46  51  44  55 / 100 100  80  70
TXK  53  53  45  57 / 100 100 100  60
ELD  62  62  47  63 /  90 100 100  80
TYR  47  51  45  58 / 100 100  80  70
GGG  54  56  49  65 / 100 100  90  70
LFK  66  65  53  71 /  80 100  90  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch through late Wednesday night for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...Flash Flood Watch through late Wednesday night for LAZ001>004.

OK...Flash Flood Watch through late Wednesday night for OKZ077.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through late Wednesday night for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

09/13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
624 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>004-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>151-211200-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-McCurtain-
Red River-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-
Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-
624 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, northwest Louisiana, southeast
Oklahoma and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

...A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through 6 am Thursday
Morning...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will become numerous overnight
across portions of the region. Periods of excessive heavy rainfall
associated with a very slow moving frontal boundary may result in
areas of flash flooding as training of showers and thunderstorms
will likely occur over the watch area. Rainfall totals of 3-6
inches of rainfall expected. Some isolated higher amounts are
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Persistent southwest flow aloft will provide ensuing moisture and
disturbances resulting in an unsettled and wet weather pattern
through the week and into the weekend. Adding to the mix will be
the south winds at the surface over the southern half of the
Four State Region to the southeast of the frontal boundary that
will be sending moisture over the boundary. Moderate to heavy
rainfall will continue into Wednesday and Wednesday night. The
cold front will become nearly stationary and remain a focus for
thunderstorms. As soils become saturated, the potential for
flooding and flash flooding becomes moderate for the northwest
sections of the forecast area. Later in the week, moderate to
heavy rainfall will be shifting eastward across the region thus
maintaining the potential for flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Emergency management personnel...amateur radio operators...and
storm spotters may be needed tonight through late Wednesday.

LAZ005-006-010>014-017>022-TXZ152-153-165>167-211200-
Lincoln-Union-De Soto-Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-
Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-Nacogdoches-Shelby-
Angelina-San Augustine-
624 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Louisiana, northwest Louisiana and east Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible overnight but
the more widespread rainfall will likely hold off across the
region until the day Wednesday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

As a cold front moves slowly south and east into the region during
the day Wednesday, showers and thunderstorms will become numerous
with two to four inches of rainfall possible during the day
Wednesday into Wednesday Night. Persistent southwest flow aloft
and south winds at the surface will remain over the Four-State
Region providing ensuing moisture and disturbances resulting in an
unsettled and wet weather pattern through the end of the week and
into the weekend. As soils become saturated, the potential for
flooding and flash flooding will likely increase across the region
as we go through the remainder of the work week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters will likely not be needed through
tonight.

13