Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS San Diego, CA

355 
WGUS76 KSGX 020113
FFSSGX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service San Diego CA
613 PM PDT MON OCT 1 2018

CAC059-065-020122-
/O.CAN.KSGX.FF.W.0027.000000T0000Z-181002T0315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Riverside CA-Orange CA-
613 PM PDT MON OCT 1 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR RIVERSIDE AND EAST CENTRAL ORANGE
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The rain over the Holy Fire burn area has ended. Flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat.

LAT...LON 3376 11735 3364 11740 3367 11753 3380 11748

$$

Maxwell

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
331 PM PDT Mon Oct 1 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Weakening Rosa will move across northern Baja tonight and into
southern Arizona on Tuesday, carrying copious tropical moisture
with it. Some of this will continue moving over Southern
California with a threat of scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms, most numerous over the mountains and deserts
through tonight. The bulk of the moisture will lift away from the
area on Tuesday, though a few showers are still possible. A
Pacific storm will move across Southern California on Wednesday,
with another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms, this
time focused from the coast to the coastal mountain slopes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Tropical Storm Rosa is seen on satellite imagery as a storm of
stratus right now. The convection around the center has been
sheared off to the north and northeast. Lots of moisture has moved
into Southern California from Rosa. However, even despite the
fact that a moist environment is in place, convection has been
inhibited by an extensive mid-high level cloud deck. Instability
is struggling with MU CAPE at 500-1000 J/KG and little forcing.
Still, there continues to be a possibility of scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms developing. However, rainfall amounts were
lessened given the limited instability. The Flash Flood Watch
continues in effect for the mountains and deserts due to the
continued potential of flash flooding. This includes the Cranston
burn scar where debris flows are possible.

Tonight the moisture will continue in place, but we lose some
instability due to loss of daytime heating. However, there will
continue to be a threat of isolated showers or thunderstorms
throughout the night mountains/deserts, especially through
midnight.

Rosa moisture will lift away from the area on Tuesday as what's
left of the surface circulation finally moves into Arizona. There
will be a possibility of a few showers on Tuesday, focused over
the mountains, but rainfall amounts will be light.

Tuesday night looks mostly quiet with a slight chance of showers.

On Wednesday-Wednesday night, a Pacific storm system will move
across SoCal. This will produce a round of showers, and possibly
a thunderstorm, this time focused from the coast to the coastal
mountain slopes. Timing of heaviest rain potential continues to
look like Wednesday afternoon-evening. This could pose a risk of
debris flows at the Holy and Valley burn scars, but confidence is
too low to issue a Flash Flood Watch at this time.

The system will push out of the area by Thursday with a few light
lingering showers possible, mainly early. Then dry conditions are
expected Friday through the upcoming weekend with temps at or
below average.

&&

.AVIATION...
012030Z...Coastal low clouds are not expected tonight or tomorrow
morning. Scattered to broken clouds 6000-8000 feet are expected
today and tonight, mostly south and east of Orange County. Some
sprinkles or light showers are possible in those areas. Thunderstorms are
possible through tonight across the mountains (excluding the Santa
Ana Mountains) and in the deserts. Slight chance of thunderstorms in
southern coastal San Diego County, but confidence is low at KSAN.
Any thunderstorms could produce gusty erratic winds and heavy
showers briefly reducing visibility. Bases in those storms would be
around 7000 feet MSL with tops as high as 35000 feet MSL.

&&

.MARINE...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible near San Diego today and
tonight, and again across all coastal waters Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Any thunderstorm would produce lightning and could produce
gusty, erratic winds. Otherwise, no hazardous marine weather is
expected through Friday.

&&

.BEACHES...
South swell from Tropical Cyclone Rosa will peak today producing
high surf that will be highest on south facing beaches. Strong
currents will occur at all beaches. The swell and surf will diminish
tonight and Tuesday. See the high surf advisory and surf forecast
for details.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn spotters please send any flooding reports to us via
established protocals.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Flash Flood Watch until midnight PDT tonight for Apple and
     Lucerne Valleys-Coachella Valley-Riverside County Mountains-
     San Bernardino County Mountains-San Diego County Deserts-
     San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning.

     Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for San Diego
     County Coastal Areas.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM PDT Tuesday for Orange County
     Coastal Areas.

PZ...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...Gregoria
AVIATION/MARINE...Small

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
326 PM PDT MON OCT 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0324 PM     HIGH SURF        NEWPORT BEACH           33.60N 117.89W
10/01/2018                   ORANGE             CA   COAST GUARD

            6-10 FT SURF REPORTED AT NEWPORT BEACH IN
            THE 4PM CGR.

&&

CO