Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
639 AM CDT Tue Aug 7 2018

...12Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 209 AM CDT Tue Aug 7 2018

At this time...a surface front extends across northern Missouri
with nearly zonal upper level flow across the northern states and
the summertime flat ridge extending across the south with high
pressure centered over the desert southwest. Convection has been
firing along the front ahead of several short waves advancing
through the upper level flow.

The surface front should advance slowly southward during the day
on Tuesday making its way into southern Missouri by this time on
Wednesday. Meanwhile...several waves will continue to advance through
the upper level flow today and tonight bringing several rounds of
showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. Given the increase
in cloud cover and convective activity...temperatures will be
cooler than on Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 209 AM CDT Tue Aug 7 2018

High pressure over the desert southwest will begin to amplify
during the middle to latter portions of the week...with the ridge
getting tilted eastward as a strong trough moves into the Pacific
Northwest late Friday into Saturday.

At the surface...the front...now over northern Missouri will move
into and then stall over Arkansas. For the forecast area...much
needed rain is in the forecast through Thursday night into Friday.
Rainfall amounts overall look to be generally less than an
inch...but some areas could locally see more if storms stall or
train over a given area.

Rain chances decrease over the weekend. With the surface front
just to our south...convection will be more widely scattered and
diurnally driven. The next chances for organized rain will occur
beginning on Monday as the aforementioned trough moving into the
Pacific Northwest moves up and over the western ridge and dives
southward into the Great Lakes Region.

Overall...temperatures will be close to seasonal normals with
daily highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and overnight lows in
the mid to upper 60s. Heat index values should generally be in the
low to mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Tue Aug 7 2018

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will approach the terminals
by mid to late morning. A wind shift to the northwest will be
possible out ahead of the rain this morning. Additional showers
and storms are possible this evening and overnight however have
gone with prob 30 groups for now due to uncertainty in coverage.
Winds will be predominantly out of the south with higher gusts
possible within thunderstorms. VFR conditions are expected outside
of thunderstorms.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Burchfield

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
428 AM CDT Tue Aug 7 2018

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-080930-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
428 AM CDT Tue Aug 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited flooding risk.
  Significant lightning risk.
  Limited excessive heat risk.

DISCUSSION...

  A cold front will move through the area today and be situated
  across southern Missouri by Wednesday morning. Thunderstorms
  will occur along and ahead of the front from this morning
  through the overnight hours.

  A few of the stronger storms could produce hail up to one-inch
  in diameter and damaging straight line winds up to 60 mph
  during the afternoon and evening hours. Some of the heavier
  rain storms...especially those which are slow moving or
  continue to regenerate and move over the same area...may also
  produce localized flooding.

  Heat index values along the Missouri-Arkansas border will reach
  the mid to upper 90s this afternoon into early this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

  Thunderstorms will be possible from Wednesday into Thursday and
  again by Monday. However...severe weather is not expected at
  this time. Heat index values in the mid to upper 90s will occur
  over mainly western Missouri during the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Gaede

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1131 AM CDT TUE AUG 7 2018

MOZ091-092-071715-
Wright MO-Webster MO-
1131 AM CDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WEBSTER AND
SOUTHWESTERN WRIGHT COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 PM CDT...

At 1131 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Seymour, or 14 miles north of Ava, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Seymour...                        Mansfield...
Hartville...                      Diggins...
Odin...

LAT...LON 3707 9287 3722 9286 3732 9253 3706 9244
TIME...MOT...LOC 1631Z 256DEG 20KT 3715 9275

Raberding

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1137 AM CDT TUE AUG 7 2018

MOZ096-071730-
Douglas MO-
1137 AM CDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY UNTIL 1230
PM CDT...

At 1137 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ava, moving east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ava...                            Goodhope...
Rome...                           Dogwood...
Squires...                        Brushyknob...

LAT...LON 3681 9286 3707 9284 3706 9238 3680 9236
TIME...MOT...LOC 1637Z 262DEG 25KT 3690 9275

Raberding

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1147 AM CDT TUE AUG 7 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     TSTM WND GST     SEYMOUR                 37.15N 92.77W
08/07/2018  E60 MPH          WEBSTER            MO   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF A FEW 1 INCH LIMBS AND SHINGLES
            BLOWN OFF A GAS STATION.

&&

KP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1155 AM CDT TUE AUG 7 2018

MOZ105-071745-
Ozark MO-
1155 AM CDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN OZARK COUNTY UNTIL 1245
PM CDT...

At 1155 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles northwest of Gainesville, or 17 miles south of Ava, moving east
at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wasola...                         Thornfield...
Brixey...                         Sycamore...
Noble...                          Willhoit...
Dora...                           Rockbridge...
Long Run...                       Zanoni...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely. Listen for possible warnings
and be prepared to take appropriate action should severe weather
threaten.

&&

LAT...LON 3680 9276 3680 9224 3679 9212 3663 9212
      3661 9277
TIME...MOT...LOC 1655Z 255DEG 27KT 3670 9264

Raberding

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1209 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2018

MOZ083-098-071730-
Dent MO-Shannon MO-
1209 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL SHANNON AND
SOUTHEASTERN DENT COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM CDT...

At 1209 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bunker, or 19 miles southeast of Salem, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bunker...

LAT...LON 3734 9139 3751 9139 3751 9131 3750 9122
      3747 9121 3742 9121 3741 9119 3736 9118
TIME...MOT...LOC 1709Z 256DEG 20KT 3745 9127

Raberding