Alert archive / Missouri / Special Weather Statements in 2018

Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

July 20, 2018Douglas County, Missouri

NWS Springfield, MO issued this special weather statement at Jul 20, 2018, 7:41 AM CDT for Douglas County, Missouri. It was in force for 34 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 20, 2018, 7:41 AM CDT (12:41 UTC)
Expired: Jul 20, 2018, 8:15 AM CDT
In force: 34 min
Issued by: NWS Springfield, MO

County Douglas County, MO

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 68 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 0.7 hours before the alert went out and 102 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1151 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -259 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1847 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 53 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 197 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 203 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 2.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 20, 6:22 AM CDT, 1 hour 19 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 20, 6:22 AM CDT, 1 hour 19 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
622 AM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

...Updated for 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Main forecast concern is on hot temperatures today along with
severe weather threat.

Scattered storms, some likely containing large hail were ongoing
across central and southern Missouri this morning. Convective
allowing models (CAMS) dissipate this activity later this morning
with a break in activity expected then until afternoon.

The overall pattern will keep the local area in northwest flow
aloft between and mid level closed low over the Upper Mississippi
River Valley region and the northeastward expanding ridge over the
southwest Conus.

Another hot and humid day in store for the region. Expect
temperatures to push the century mark across southwest Missouri
and southeast Kansas with heat indices of 105 to 110. One fly in
the ointment will be the morning convection and cloud debris that
may hold temperatures down a little. None the less will hoist a
heat advisory for far southern Missouri where warmest temperatures
are expected. Day shift may have to expand it northward based on
cloud and convective trends along with moisture pooling along a
frontal boundary over the region. A few locations across far
southwest Missouri may approach heat warning criteria as well.

Models prog this weak frontal boundary to remain in place across far
southern Missouri and southeast Kansas through tonight. Convective
coverage looks better later this afternoon and tonight as a
shortwave combines with a strengthening low level jet to initiate
storms. Deep layer shear and instability look favorable for
organized convection, with mainly a damaging wind and hail risk.
Current SPC day 1 outlook has much of the area in a slight risk,
with the enhanced risk just east of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

For the Saturday and Sunday period mid level closed low will slowly
migrate through the Ohio Valley, while ridging remains across
western conus and into the Plains. Drier air is expected to filter
into the area, with more comfortable humidity levels along with
little in the way of rain chances.

The mid and upper level low will then drift southward across the
eastern conus through Tuesday. Seasonable temperatures are expected
with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and little in the way of
rain chances. Medium range models do prog a shortwave to drop
through the flow towards midweek which could potentially lead to
some rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Scattered storms were once again developing over southwest
Missouri early this morning, with the KBBG and KSGF TAF sites
likely to be affected by these over the next several hours. Still
expect a break later this morning, but more storms will develop
late this afternoon and especially tonight. Overall, VFR flight
conditions will prevail for most of the period, with IFR
conditions possible in the stronger storms.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     MOZ088-093>097-101>106.

KS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     KSZ101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Raberding

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 20, 3:14 AM CDT, 4 hours 27 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
314 AM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-210815-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
314 AM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive heat risk.

DISCUSSION...

  Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected early this
  morning, with the main threats being large hail to the size of
  quarters and lightning.

  More thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon and tonight
  across much of the area. Some of these storms could be severe,
  with large hail and damaging winds the main threats.

  In addition, another hot day is expected today with temperatures
  well into the 90s, with some 100 degree readings possible across
  far southern Missouri. Heat indices will be near 105 degrees over
  portions of southeast Kansas and far southern Missouri this
  afternoon and early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

  No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation may be needed across the area later today and
  tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Raberding

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 20, 2:29 AM CDT, 5 hours 12 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
229 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2018

MOZ079-080-200800-
Dallas MO-Polk MO-
229 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DALLAS AND SOUTHERN
POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

At 229 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bolivar, moving east at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bolivar...                        Buffalo...
Pleasant Hope...                  Morrisville...
Halfway...                        Olive...
Eudora...                         Brighton...
Foose...                          March...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3747 9354 3766 9352 3765 9307 3743 9307
      3742 9308 3741 9310
TIME...MOT...LOC 0729Z 276DEG 43KT 3756 9342

Schaumann

Special weather statement, Jul 20, 3:21 AM CDT, 4 hours 20 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
321 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2018

MOZ068-069-079-080-200915-
Dallas MO-Camden MO-Polk MO-Hickory MO-
321 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HICKORY...DALLAS...NORTHERN POLK
AND SOUTHWESTERN CAMDEN COUNTIES UNTIL 415 AM CDT...

At 320 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Wheatland, or near Hermitage, moving east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pomme de Terre Lake...            Pomme De Terre State Park...
Bennett Spring State Park...      Buffalo...
Pittsburg...                      Humansville...
Polk...                           Hermitage...
Weaubleau...                      Urbana...
Wheatland...                      Macks Creek...
Preston...                        Cross Timbers...
Flemington...                     Bennett Springs...
Louisburg...                      Windyville...
Quincy...                         Tunas...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

If on or near Pomme de Terre Lake, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3802 9284 3789 9284 3789 9285 3758 9285
      3775 9363 3783 9363 3783 9357 3791 9357
      3792 9351 3802 9351 3808 9349
TIME...MOT...LOC 0820Z 282DEG 28KT 3798 9342

Schaumann

Special weather statement, Jul 20, 4:25 AM CDT, 3 hours 16 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
425 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2018

MOZ055>057-069-201015-
Camden MO-Benton MO-Miller MO-Morgan MO-
425 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BENTON...
SOUTHWESTERN MILLER...CAMDEN AND SOUTHWESTERN MORGAN COUNTIES UNTIL
515 AM CDT...

At 424 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles west of Laurie, or 19 miles east of Warsaw, moving east at 45
mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lake of The Ozarks...             Lake of The Ozarks State Park...
Ha Ha Tonka State Park...         Osage Beach...
Camdenton...                      Village of Four Seasons...
Lake Ozark...                     Laurie...
Sunrise Beach...                  Linn Creek...
Climax Springs...                 Brumley...
Lakeview Heights...               Freedom...
Kaiser...                         Knobby...
Hurricane Deck...                 Old Linn Creek...
Barnumton...                      Hastain...

LAT...LON 3819 9241 3788 9261 3803 9307 3806 9307
      3806 9317 3827 9318
TIME...MOT...LOC 0924Z 284DEG 39KT 3817 9304

Raberding

Special weather statement, Jul 20, 6:22 AM CDT, 1 hour 19 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
622 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2018

MOZ078-079-089-201145-
Cedar MO-Polk MO-Dade MO-
622 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CEDAR...SOUTHERN
POLK AND NORTHEASTERN DADE COUNTIES UNTIL 645 AM CDT...

At 622 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fair Play, or 10 miles southeast of Stockton, moving east at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bolivar...                        Stockton Lake...
Stockton State Park...            Fair Play...
Morrisville...                    Halfway...
Aldrich...                        Bearcreek...
Masters...                        Brighton...
Cane Hill...                      Eudora...
Bona...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

If on or near Stockton Lake, get out of the water and move indoors
or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3756 9381 3773 9375 3765 9318 3742 9332
      3742 9344
TIME...MOT...LOC 1122Z 285DEG 41KT 3762 9363

Schaumann

Special weather statement, Jul 20, 7:28 AM CDT, 13 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
728 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2018

MOZ105-201315-
Ozark MO-
728 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OZARK COUNTY UNTIL 815 AM CDT...

At 728 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles north of Price Place, or 18 miles south of Ava, moving
southeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gainesville...                    Sundown...
Hardenville...                    Thornfield...
Sycamore...                       Noble...
Willhoit...                       Long Run...
Isabella...                       Zanoni...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3664 9277 3681 9276 3671 9226 3649 9237
      3650 9247
TIME...MOT...LOC 1228Z 294DEG 26KT 3669 9268

Schaumann

Special weather statement, Jul 20, 7:41 AM CDT, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
741 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2018

MOZ091-092-096-201315-
Douglas MO-Wright MO-Webster MO-
741 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WEBSTER...WESTERN
DOUGLAS AND SOUTHWESTERN WRIGHT COUNTIES UNTIL 815 AM CDT...

At 741 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mansfield, or 7 miles north of Ava, moving southeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ava...                            Seymour...
Mansfield...                      Norwood...
Dogwood...                        Brushyknob...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3702 9284 3715 9281 3723 9271 3711 9232
      3683 9249
TIME...MOT...LOC 1241Z 303DEG 32KT 3707 9268

Schaumann

The office that day

Everything else NWS Springfield, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 19, 7:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Ozark	65 min
Jul 19, 7:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Douglas, Howell, Texas, Wright	59 min
Jul 19, 8:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Howell, Ozark	36 min
Jul 20, 1:23 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Barton	52 min
Jul 20, 2:29 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Polk	31 min
Jul 20, 2:55 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	St. Clair, Vernon	50 min
Jul 20, 3:21 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Dallas, Hickory	54 min
Jul 20, 3:27 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Camden, Dallas, Hickory	33 min
Jul 20, 3:48 AM CDT	Heat Advisory	SGF	Barry, Barton, Christian, Dade, Douglas, Greene and 13 more	16 hr
Jul 20, 4:25 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Camden	50 min
Jul 20, 6:22 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Polk	23 min
Jul 20, 7:03 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Greene, Webster	42 min
Jul 20, 7:28 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Ozark	47 min
Jul 20, 10:12 AM CDT	Excessive Heat Warning	SGF	Barry, Howell, Jasper, McDonald, Newton, Oregon and 3 more	10 hr
Jul 20, 4:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Howell, Shannon, Texas	33 min
Jul 20, 4:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Shannon	29 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Missouri, 2018 Every special weather statement in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.