Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
215 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

Widely scattered pulse-type thunderstorms have developed this
afternoon across the eastern Ozarks where higher amounts of
instability and mid-level moisture exist. A few storms may produce
locally gusty winds given that low-level theta-e differentials
around 30 Kelvin are present. This thunderstorm activity will
diminish by mid-evening as temperatures begin to cool off.

Attention will then turn to the west starting later this evening
as a short wave trough and cold front slowly track across the
northern and central Plains. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will develop from the Corn Belt back into western
Kansas. We may also see a secondary area of storms develop closer
to the I-35 corridor in southern Kansas and Oklahoma.

If storms materialize near the I-35 corridor, there is some lower
end potential for this activity to approach the I-49 corridor late
this evening. However, most high resolution models diminish this
activity as it encounters an increasing hostile environment. The
better chances for showers and thunderstorms across southeastern
Kansas and west-central Missouri may come starting late tonight
as activity tracks out of northern and western Kansas.

Showers and thunderstorms will then remain possible into Sunday
as the southern periphery of that short wave trough glances the
area and that cold front drifts southeast through Missouri.
Coverage and timing of storms is a tough call as remnant outflow
boundaries from overnight storms may come into play. At this
point, we felt it was best to go with 30-40% PoPs over most areas
with the highest PoPs in the afternoon.

While deep layer shear will be weak across the region on Sunday,
high amounts of instability will support a risk for a few strong
to severe storms. Locally damaging winds would be the main
concern. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible with a very
moist airmass in place (especially over western Missouri) along
with relatively slow storm motions.

The other big question for Sunday will be temperatures, dew
points, and resultant heat indices. There will certainly be more
cloud cover and potential convection in the region. However,
temperatures should still warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s,
with the highest readings likely over the eastern Ozarks. In
contrast, the highest dew points may actually be located over
western Missouri immediately ahead of that front (moisture
pooling). Thus, we are still looking at heat indices of 95-100
over most of the area.

At this point, we are not confident enough in widespread 100+
heat indices to continue with Heat Advisory headlines. However,
this will be something for incoming shifts to keep a close eye on
as an extension to heat headlines may still be in play over parts
of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

That cold front will then stall across the region early next week
while losing definition. Enough convergence will still be present
on Monday to provide a focus for widely scattered storms,
especially across southern Missouri. The setup then looks
favorable for pop-up afternoon storms on Tuesday, especially
across the eastern Ozarks given overall moisture and CAPE
profiles.

Upper level subsidence and poorer moisture profiles will then
support generally dry conditions around midweek. Chances for at
least widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will then enter
back into the forecast by late week as upper level high pressure
shifts west of the region and moisture quality increases.

We will see temperatures creep back up next week with highs in
the low to perhaps middle 90s for the Fourth of July. That may be
the warmest day of the week with highs generally in the upper 80s
to lower 90s for the remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites today with afternoon
cumulus over the area. Cant rule out an isolated shower or storm
near BBG or SGF however coverage looks too low to include in TAF.
Winds will remain out of the south with a few gusts over 15kts
possible. Showers and thunderstorms may move in towards JLN
overnight and have gone with a prob30 group for now. Low level
wind shear looks marginal overnight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ057-058-070-071-
     081>083-090>098-101>106.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-
     056-066>069-077>080-088-089.

KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ101.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-
     097.

&&

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Burchfield

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Springfield MO
350 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-012100-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
350 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Significant excessive heat risk.

DISCUSSION...

Dangerous heat will continue this afternoon. Afternoon
temperatures will reach the middle 90s with heat index values
from 100 to 107 degrees.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop this
afternoon into early evening mainly east of US Highway 65 with
the greatest concentration east of US Highway 63. Cloud to ground
lightning and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these
storms. Storms will likely die off near sunset.

A line of thunderstorms will push northeast across northeastern
Oklahoma and portions of eastern Kansas early this evening. While
these storms are expected to weaken as they approach the I-49
corridor, gusty winds will still be possible across extreme
southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri this evening.

Widely scattered thunderstorms will then be possible overnight
across southeastern Kansas and west-central Missouri. Cloud to
ground lightning will be the main potential hazard.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Heat index values will continue to be in the upper 90s to around
100 degrees into next week.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible from Sunday into
Tuesday and again towards the end of next week. A few storms may
produce locally damaging wind gusts on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Schaumann

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