Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
230 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

...Storms in South Central Missouri This Afternoon...
...Much Colder Air Returns Tonight and Again Friday...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

Storms were firing up along a cold front advancing across south
central Missouri early this afternoon. A continued gradual
intensification of storms is expected through mid afternoon across
far south central Missouri or southeast of a Salem to Gainesville
line before the front exits to the east. Mixed layer CAPE around
1500 J/KG and deep layer shear near 50 kts will support strong to
locally severe convection through 5 PM. There is a low risk for
a tornado but low level winds have veered and best low level shear
parameters will be east of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

Much colder air will overspread the region tonight with lows
falling into the middle and possibly even lower 20s. This will
bring a hard freeze to the entire area.

Surface high pressure will build into the Ozarks Wednesday
resulting in a tranquil but cool day. Lows will fall to near or
below freezing Wednesday night across the eastern Ozarks as
surface high pressure gradually shifts eastward.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

A brief warm up can be expected Thursday as southerly winds
return. However the warming trend will be short lived as another
unseasonably cold airmass arrives Friday. An amplifying upper
pattern with an upper level ridge along the west coast and a
deepening trough from Hudson Bay into the Eastern U.S. will send
another surge of cold Canadian air into the central and eastern
U.S.

A passing minor shortwave coupled with the entrance region of a
strong polar jet stream will bring a round to precipitation to the
Ozarks region Friday and Friday night while cold air moves in.
This will result in a transition from rain to snow or a wintry
mix by Friday night. Light snow accumulations are possible Friday
night.

Low temperatures Friday night could fall into the lower 20s
bringing another widespread hard freeze. The cool temperatures
will persist over the weekend with another chance of precipitation
arriving as early as Sunday. Overall below normal temperatures and
an active weather will continue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

Pilots can expect MVFR to locally IFR conditions this afternoon
but improving conditions from the west later today into this
evening. VFR conditions are expected tonight into Wednesday as
surface high pressure builds into the area.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-077-078-088-
     089-093-094-101.

KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for
     KSZ073-097-101.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

MESOSCALE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Foster

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
107 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-041815-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
107 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited tornado risk.
  Elevated hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.
  Extreme Freeze risk.

DISCUSSION...

Scattered thunderstorms will develop across south central Missouri
this afternoon ahead of a strong cold front. A few strong to
severe storms will develop across far south central Missouri or
generally southeast of a line from Salem to Gainesville. The
strongest storms could produce hail to the size of quarters and
winds up to 60 mph. There is a limited risk for a tornado in far
south central Missouri. A higher risk for severe weather will
occur just east and southeast of the area.

Gusty south winds will shift to the west and northwest today with
frontal passage. Non thunderstorm wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph can
be expected.

A hard freeze can be expected tonight into Wednesday morning as
lows fall into the middle 20s.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Another risk for a frost or a light freeze is expected Wednesday
night into Thursday over eastern parts of the outlook area from
Rolla to West Plains.

Another area wide spread hard freeze will be possible again
Friday night into early Saturday morning.

A light dusting of snow may also be possible Friday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon across south
 central Missouri southeast of a Salem to Gainesville line.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Foster

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
310 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0307 PM     HAIL             2 W WEST PLAINS         36.73N 91.89W
04/03/2018  E0.75 INCH       HOWELL             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
312 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             POMONA                  36.87N 91.92W
04/03/2018  E1.00 INCH       HOWELL             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
314 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0311 PM     HAIL             4 SW WEST PLAINS        36.68N 91.90W
04/03/2018  E1.00 INCH       HOWELL             MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
319 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0253 PM     HAIL             4 NW CAULFIELD          36.66N 92.15W
04/03/2018  E1.75 INCH       OZARK              MO   PUBLIC

            CLOUD 9 RANCH.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
323 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             4 SW WEST PLAINS        36.68N 91.90W
04/03/2018  E0.88 INCH       HOWELL             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

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