Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Springfield, MO

225 
WWUS53 KSGF 191903
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
203 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

MOC125-161-191913-
/O.EXP.KSGF.SV.W.0077.000000T0000Z-180519T1900Z/
Maries MO-Phelps MO-
203 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MARIES AND NORTHERN PHELPS
COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and have exited the warned area. Therefore the warning has
been allowed to expire.  However heavy rain is still possible with
these thunderstorms.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Springfield.

LAT...LON 3826 9164 3815 9164 3815 9153 3786 9153
      3789 9202 3801 9202 3801 9206 3829 9206
      3829 9165
TIME...MOT...LOC 1903Z 246DEG 33KT 3856 9150 3816 9147 

$$

Schaumann

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1258 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

A large area of rain and thunderstorms was ongoing in Kansas
early this morning. This was occuring on the nose of a 45kt llj
and aided by a reservoir of 3000MU capes in Oklahoma. Until the
llj veers later this morning, most of this activity will likely
skirt the far northwest corner of the CWA. Other very isolated
showers were beginning to develop across the area and this will
likely continue this morning.

Much like the last few nights, fog has developed over the eastern
ozarks with some localized dense fog across the Rolla area, this
will persist through sunrise before dissipating.

A somewhat messy synoptic situation was unfolding across the
Central Plains with a stationary boundary from Central Arkansas
stretching west into North Central Oklahoma and Northwest Texas
where it meets up with a low pressure and dryline across West
Texas. Given all the precip in Kansas, the true cold front is
likely across the northwest part of the state extending into
Nebraska with several outflow boundaries in Kansas. Several
shortwaves were moving through the developing southwest flow and
will create a messy situation today/tonight given the boundaries
and an increasingly unstable airmass.

For today, expect the stationary boundary to return north through
the area as a warm front this morning into early afternoon. The
airmass will become very unstable along and south of the front by
mid day with temps reaching the low to mid 80s and dewpoints
rising into the upper 60s. ML capes will reach 3000j/kg with about
30kts of effective bulk shear. The RAP and NAM both show CIN
decreasing to near zero along the warm front from 18-21Z across
the northeast 1/2 to 1/3 of the area. A weak wave will also be
moving into the area during this time. IF a thunderstorm develops
along that boundary (or any other boundaries from KS morning
convection), then it would have a high chance of becoming severe
given the instability and shear. Low and mid level lapse rates
will be quite steep therefore large hail and damaging winds would
be the main threats. Again this is conditional on if storms
develop. A few of the 00Z CAMS and the latest 06Z NAMnest do show
isolated storms developing across the area today. This will
definently need to be monitored as we head through the morning
hours. Outside of thunderstorms, it will be very warm today with
temps reaching 90 in a few locations. See climate section for
records.

Other showers and storms will likely develop by afternoon and
evening along the synoptic boundaries from Kansas into Oklahoma.
Models struggle to decide on the evolution of this activity with
CAMS showing a wide range of possibilities. It does looks like the
bulk of the storms could affect our northwestern CWA anywhere from
this evening into the overnight hours. Instability and wind shear
would be favorable for severe storms. Storm evolution and
resultant pop forecasts for today/tonight will likely need further
adjustment once convective evolution/placement becomes more
clear.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Depending on how worked over the atmosphere is from Saturday night
storms, additional showers and storms could occur on Sunday since
a front will stall across the area. If enough instability develops
then a severe threat could exist. Currently the best chances of
this is in the northeast CWA closer to better upper level support.

Next week looks warm and unsettled with daily rain/storm chances
given the mid level setup. Monday has the least rain chances with
increasing chances Tuesday through the end of the week. Mainly
looks like a afternoon and evening type of setup that we would
experience during the summer, not May... High temps will likely
reach the mid to upper 80s next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Convection ongoing ahead of a warm front currently situated along
the MO-AR border into northeast OK. Isolated to widely scattered
convection will occur across the area just ahead of the front this
afternoon.

Convection will once again be possible during the overnight
hours...but will be widely scattered in nature once again.
Conditions will be VFR outside of convective areas to MFVR for
ceilings and visibilities within the stronger storms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Record Highs for Today May 19 2018

JLN 91/1987 and 2006
SGF 91/1987 and 1968
VIH 92/1996
UNO 91/1987

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Gaede
CLIMATE...Burchfield

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
818 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-201330-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
818 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited tornado risk.
  Elevated hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Significant fog risk.

DISCUSSION...

Dense fog will reduce visibilities to one quarter mile or less
across Central Missouri from Rolla to Versailles. Visibilities
will improve by mid morning.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible at various
times throughout today. Scattered storms will continue to push
east across central Missouri this morning. Some of these storms
will produce hail up to the size of quarters and locally damaging
wind.

A warm front will lift north through the area during the morning
and afternoon hours today. If storms can form along this
boundary, they will have the potential to become severe with
large hail up to the size of half dollars and damaging winds in
excess of 60 mph. This is a conditional risk with the best chance
north of Interstate 44. The timeframe for these thunderstorms
would be from late morning into the afternoon hours.

Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop by late
afternoon or evening across Kansas and Oklahoma and move
northeast, generally affecting southeast Kansas and western
Missouri. Some storms could be severe with large hail and damaging
winds the main threats. An isolated tornado can not be ruled out,
especially across southeast Kansas. Thunderstorms also would
produce cloud to ground lightning and heavy rainfall. The
timeframe for these thunderstorms would be from late evening into
the Overnight hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Additional thunderstorm are possible on Sunday. A few storms may
become severe across central Missouri if enough instability
develops.

Additional thunderstorm chances will occur next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this morning across central
Missouri mainly north of Highway 60. Spotter activation may then
be needed again this afternoon and this evening over this same
area.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Schaumann

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1227 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1221 PM     HAIL             BOIS D'ARC              37.26N 93.51W
05/19/2018  E0.88 INCH       GREENE             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

FEH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1233 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

MOZ069-070-079>081-090>092-191815-
Dallas MO-Camden MO-Polk MO-Greene MO-Wright MO-Laclede MO-
Webster MO-Pulaski MO-
1233 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEBSTER...DALLAS...NORTHWESTERN
WRIGHT...LACLEDE...SOUTHEASTERN POLK...CENTRAL PULASKI...GREENE AND
SOUTHEASTERN CAMDEN COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM CDT...

At 1233 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles southeast of Camdenton to 7 miles west
of Conway to Republic. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Springfield...                    Northwestern Fort Leonard Wood...
Republic...                       Lebanon...
Bennett Spring State Park...      Marshfield...
Battlefield...                    Willard...
Waynesville...                    St. Robert...
Buffalo...                        Rogersville...
Strafford...                      Richland...
Morgan...                         Ash Grove...
Fair Grove...                     Fordland...
Conway...                         Pleasant Hope...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 59 and 167.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3709 9353 3710 9361 3728 9361 3728 9363
      3734 9362 3791 9284 3790 9203 3789 9202
      3787 9202 3753 9237 3709 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 1733Z 264DEG 27KT 3790 9261 3749 9296 3714 9350

Schaumann

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1234 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

MOZ098-106-191815-
Oregon MO-Shannon MO-
1234 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SHANNON AND
NORTHEASTERN OREGON COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM CDT...

At 1234 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles south of Winona, or 19 miles southwest of Van Buren, moving
east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Winona...                         Birch Tree...
Thomasville...                    Greer...

LAT...LON 3677 9112 3677 9155 3700 9155 3704 9122
      3685 9122 3683 9123 3682 9112 3678 9111
TIME...MOT...LOC 1734Z 264DEG 27KT 3688 9132

Schaumann

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1249 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1248 PM     HAIL             1 ENE STRAFFORD         37.27N 93.09W
05/19/2018  E1.00 INCH       GREENE             MO   PUBLIC

&&

FEH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1257 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1257 PM     HAIL             ROGERSVILLE             37.12N 93.06W
05/19/2018  E1.00 INCH       WEBSTER            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

FEH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
101 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0101 PM     HAIL             ROGERSVILLE             37.12N 93.05W
05/19/2018  E1.75 INCH       WEBSTER            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

FEH