Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Springfield, MO

257 
WWUS53 KSGF 030405
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1105 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

MOC015-085-030445-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0036.000000T0000Z-180503T0445Z/
Hickory MO-Benton MO-
1105 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN HICKORY AND BENTON COUNTIES...

At 1104 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Green Ridge to near Warsaw to near Osceola,
moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Truman Lake...                    Truman State Park...
Warsaw...                         Lincoln...
Cole Camp...                      Hermitage...
Wheatland...                      Preston...
Cross Timbers...                  Ionia...
Palo Pinto...                     Quincy...
Lakeview Heights...               Crockerville...
Fristoe...                        Knobby...
Racket...                         Mora...
Hastain...                        Whitakerville...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If on or near Truman Lake, get away from the water and move indoors 
or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 15 miles 
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close 
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now!  Do not 
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3853 9307 3819 9308 3818 9306 3816 9306
      3793 9307 3794 9351 3820 9350 3821 9353
      3823 9353 3851 9351 3851 9330 3854 9329
      3854 9326
TIME...MOT...LOC 0404Z 265DEG 31KT 3857 9338 3828 9344 3799 9365 

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Schaumann

581 
WWUS53 KSGF 030446
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1146 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

MOC015-085-030456-
/O.EXP.KSGF.SV.W.0036.000000T0000Z-180503T0445Z/
Hickory MO-Benton MO-
1146 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN HICKORY AND BENTON
COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been allowed to expire.  However heavy rain
is still possible with these thunderstorms.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
central and west central Missouri.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Springfield.

LAT...LON 3853 9307 3819 9308 3818 9306 3816 9306
      3793 9307 3794 9351 3820 9350 3821 9353
      3823 9353 3851 9351 3851 9330 3854 9329
      3854 9326
TIME...MOT...LOC 0446Z 265DEG 31KT 3860 9294 3831 9300 3802 9321 

$$

Schaumann

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
634 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

A complex and volatile weather situation is setting up across the
region tonight through Thursday as a storm system moves slowly
east. Strong to severe thunderstorms will erupt across Plains and
into northwestern Missouri into this evening. This activity will
spread eastward into southeastern Kansas and central Missouri
during the mid to late evening and across the remainder of the
Missouri Ozarks during the overnight hours.

There is some uncertainty on the exact evolution of this activity
but ample instability and increasing low level and deep layer shear
resulting from a strengthening low level jet will support ongoing
storm development. Expect the potential of severe weather
including large hail, damaging winds and possibly a couple of
tornadoes. Damaging straight line winds look to be the primary
risk. Low level shear profiles support northeast to east bowing
segments which will pose the greatest risk for strong winds and
the potential of a couple of quick spin up line segment tornadoes.
The greatest risk for damaging winds and tornadoes will generally
be northwest of a line from Pittsburg KS to the Lake of the
Ozarks region of central Missouri. The damaging wind threat will
continue farther east but diminish with time.

Showers and storms will continue into Thursday morning as the first
wave of activity shifts southeast and weakens. Another round of
storm development is expected later Thursday afternoon and evening
as the actual cold front and upper level trough push east into
the region. Some uncertainty on the potential of severe storms
Thursday given the residual clouds and activity. Appears the
greatest risk for severe storms Thursday will be across eastern
Kansas and western Missouri where heating and instability will be
maximized.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

A more tranquil weather pattern will return for late week into the
weekend. Temperatures will remain mild to warm. A cold front will
drop southward across the region Sunday afternoon and evening
resulting in a low chance for showers. More active weather may
return the middle to later part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

Thunderstorm potential will be on the increase overnight though
confidence in coverage is modest given differences in model
output. Expectation at this point is for convection currently over
KS to move north of TAF sites...with additional storms over OK to
expand in coverage as it moves into southwest Missouri after
midnight into the early morning hours. Have maintained MVFR
ceilings through the morning. Questions remain in redevelopment
of convection during the mid to late afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Runnels

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1003 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-040315-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
1003 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited tornado risk.
  Elevated hail risk.
  Significant thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited flooding risk.
  Significant lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will move through
central Missouri through midnight. Some of these storms could be
severe capable of producing hail to the size of quarters and
damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph. There remains a limited threat
for tornadoes as well.

Another area of strong to severe storms will move northeast out of
Oklahoma and into southwest Missouri after midnight...continuing
toward the Highway 63 corridor into the late night hours. Winds
to 70 mph will be the greatest threat...though short lived
tornadoes will be possible as well.

Locally heavy downpours will also accompany the stronger
storms...but widespread flooding is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

 Scattered thunderstorms will impact the outlook area Thursday
 into Thursday evening. There is a conditional risk for strong to
 severe storms if enough instability develops. The greatest risk
 for severe storms will across central Missouri later in the day.

 Southerly wind gusts over 30 mph will be possible on Thursday,
 especially across western Missouri and southeastern Kansas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed overnight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Runnels