Severe Thunderstorm Warning 288, NWS Springfield, MO

822 
WWUS53 KSGF 162312
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
612 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

KSC011-162345-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0288.000000T0000Z-180816T2345Z/
Bourbon KS-
612 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN BOURBON COUNTY...

At 612 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Pleasanton to 6 miles east of Blue Mound to
Bronson, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Scott...                     Marmaton...
Bronson...                        Uniontown...
Fulton...                         Redfield...
Mapleton...                       Hammond...
Devon...                          Harding...
Xenia...                          

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 9508 3804 9462 3783 9462 3783 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 313DEG 24KT 3821 9469 3807 9490 3792 9509 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Raberding

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
325 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

A couple of upper level impulses will interact with a quasi-
stationary front to produce some strong to severe thunderstorms
into this evening. The surface front is currently located from
about Columbia to Joplin. The first upper level impulse is
currently moving out of northeastern NE into IA. Convection is
beginning to fire ahead of this impulse from southern IA into
northeast KS. The second impulse is a leftover MCV currently
moving into north central OK. Visible satellite imagery is
showing what looks like an old outflow boundary extending from
north central AR through north central OK. This seems to be
providing the focus for the northeast OK storms at this time.

Convection associated with these impulses will be on the increase
from late this afternoon into this evening. These storms will
eventually congeal into a complex as they move through the area
overnight. Primary severe threats will be strong winds and large
hail. As the front shifts southward on Friday...afternoon
convection will be more confined to the MO-AR border region.
Temperatures overnight will fall to around 70 with highs on Friday
in the mid to upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

There will be a brief lull in the weather from Friday night into
early Sunday. It should be dry with daytime highs in the upper 80s
and overnight lows around 70.

The next system begins to approach the area Sunday as a short wave
moves up over the ridge and begins to dig into the Central Plains.
This system should bring some more widespread rain to the area
which will provide further drought relief. This system will
affect the weather over the region through Tuesday. By Tuesday
night...high pressure begins to move back in both at the surface
and aloft. This will bring in a cooler and drier Canadian air mass that
will remain over the area through the forecast period. Highs mid
to late week will be in the low to mid 80s with lows in low to mid
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

For the 18z TAFS, will see cumulus field expand further west into
the terminal locations this afternoon. A cold front will work its
way southward into the area tonight with showers and thunderstorms
expected to develop. Convection will likely knock the flying
conditions into MVFR and brief IFR conditions, with improving
conditions towards morning behind the convection.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Lindenberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
413 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-172115-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
413 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited flooding risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Limited excessive heat risk.

DISCUSSION...

  Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop out
  ahead of a cold front and upper level disturbance across the
  plains this afternoon. These storms will then move into extreme
  southeast Kansas and western Missouri, generally this evening
  and overnight.

  The best chance of severe storms will be west of
  an Anderson to Stockton to Osceola line after 6 pm. Hail to
  the size of golf balls and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts up
  to 60 mph will be the primary severe weather risks.

  If thunderstorms can develop and move across the same
  locations, some minor localized flooding will be possible in
  addition to the severe storms.

  Some heat index values in the mid 90s will be possible late
  this afternoon across the Missouri Ozarks and extreme
  southeast Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

  Heat index values in the mid to upper 90s will be possible
  Friday and Saturday afternoons primarily across southern
  Missouri and extreme southeast Kansas.

  Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday
  into the early of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation may be needed later this evening into
  tonight over western Missouri and extreme southeast Kansas.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Gaede