Severe Thunderstorm Warning 278, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
250 PM CDT Fri Aug 10 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Aug 10 2018

A weak cold front was located over central Missouri and extended
back along the Oklahoma/Kansas border, with Isolated to scattered
convection beginning to develop just head of the front from northern
Oklahoma into central Missouri. Given presence of front, no cap and
moderate instabilities will continue to see isolated to scattered
convection through the remainder of the afternoon and into the
evening hours. Much like yesterday, thermodynamic and moisture
profiles are favorable for pulse type severe storms, with winds and
hail being the main threat, along with heavy downpours of rain. The
front will continue to slide south through the area tonight. Storms
will weaken and diminish as instability decreases, but some activity
may last until midnight. Clear to partly cloudy skies are then
expected late tonight and cannot rule out some patchy fog over
portions of the area by morning.

For Saturday, the front lays up across northern Arkansas. Again
expect isolated to scattered afternoon/evening storms again,
especially across southern Missouri nearer the front. Given the
light easterly flow north of the front, afternoon temperatures may be
a litter cooler with highs around the 90 degree mark.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Aug 10 2018

Saturday night into Sunday, frontal boundary will remain across
northern Arkansas and northeast Oklahoma, but will begin to return
north later Sunday as a mid level low develops over the southern
Plains. Focus for storms looks to be over southeast Kansas and
southwest Missouri by Sunday afternoon/evening. Again temperatures
looks to be seasonal with highs around 90s and lows in the 60s.

This mid and upper level low will slowly build northward Monday and
Tuesday, before opening up and sliding across the region Wednesday.
This will make for an unsettled pattern with periodic rain
chances through the period. Medium range models indicate the
potential for widespread and heaver rains would be later Tuesday
and Wednesday time frame as the main shortwave trough tracks
across the area, and both the GFS and ECMWF shows a decent low
level jet developing late Tuesday night nosing into the area. As a
result of the expected clouds and precipitation chances,
temperatures will be in the mid 80s for highs and lows in the 60s
to lower 70s for overnight lows.

The active flow remains in place for the end of the week, with
another shortwave poised to move across the area later Thursday into
Friday bringing more rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Aug 10 2018

VFR flight conditions expected at the TAF sites through the
period. Cumulus will once again be common into the early evening
hours. Isolated to scattered showers/storms will be found around
the area, with better chances across central Missouri near a
frontal boundary. Due to expected coverage, have kept the VCTS at
the 3 sites from 21Z through about 03Z. Any storms that do develop
will contain low visibilities if IFR due to heavy rain, along
with gusty winds.This boundary will push through the area settling
into northern Arkansas by morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Raberding

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
311 PM CDT Fri Aug 10 2018

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-112015-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
311 PM CDT Fri Aug 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Limited excessive heat risk.

DISCUSSION...

  Isolated to Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop
  across the region the remainder of the afternoon into the evening
  hours, especially across extreme southeastern Kansas into central
  Missouri. A few of the stronger storms may produce damaging
  downburst winds and hail up to the size of quarters.

  Heat index values in the mid to upper 90s will occur over west
  central Missouri into extreme southeast Kansas during the
  late afternoon hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

  Heat index values in the low to mid 90s will occur across southern
  Missouri on Saturday afternoon.

  A few storms will again be possible Saturday and Sunday. A
  better coverage of thunderstorms is then expected from Monday
  through Wednesday as an upper level storm system slowly moves
  east through the region. No severe weather is expected at this
  time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Raberding

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
459 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0411 PM     TSTM WND DMG     APPLETON CITY           38.19N 94.03W
08/10/2018                   ST. CLAIR          MO   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN TOWN. TIME ESTIMATED
            BY RADAR.

&&

DSA