Severe Thunderstorm Warning 235, NWS Springfield, MO

715 
WWUS53 KSGF 191843
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
143 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

MOC161-169-215-191915-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0235.000000T0000Z-180719T1915Z/
Pulaski MO-Texas MO-Phelps MO-
143 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI...NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN PHELPS
COUNTIES...

At 142 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Fort Leonard 
Wood, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Leonard Wood...              Waynesville...
St. Robert...                     Licking...
Edgar Springs...                  Beulah...
Devil's Elbow...                  Hazelton...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 155 and 168, and
between mile markers 180 and 183.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3743 9175 3757 9225 3780 9225 3787 9220
      3785 9180 3760 9181 3758 9176
TIME...MOT...LOC 1842Z 294DEG 30KT 3774 9207 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Cramer

197 
WWUS53 KSGF 191903
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
203 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

MOC169-191913-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0235.000000T0000Z-180719T1915Z/
Pulaski MO-
203 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
south central, central and east central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3743 9175 3753 9211 3760 9207 3761 9203
      3780 9203 3782 9200 3782 9180 3760 9181
      3758 9176
TIME...MOT...LOC 1903Z 294DEG 30KT 3767 9187 

$$

MOC161-215-191915-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0235.000000T0000Z-180719T1915Z/
Texas MO-Phelps MO-
203 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN PHELPS COUNTIES...

At 203 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 11 miles north of
Licking, or 15 miles east of Fort Leonard Wood, moving southeast at
35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Licking...                        Edgar Springs...
Hazelton...                       Beulah...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3743 9175 3753 9211 3760 9207 3761 9203
      3780 9203 3782 9200 3782 9180 3760 9181
      3758 9176
TIME...MOT...LOC 1903Z 294DEG 30KT 3767 9187 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Cramer

338 
WWUS53 KSGF 191906
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
206 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

MOC161-215-191916-
/O.EXP.KSGF.SV.W.0235.000000T0000Z-180719T1915Z/
Texas MO-Phelps MO-
206 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN PHELPS COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 215 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However heavy rain
is still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
south central, central and east central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3743 9175 3753 9211 3760 9207 3761 9203
      3780 9203 3782 9200 3782 9180 3760 9181
      3758 9176
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 294DEG 30KT 3766 9185 

$$

Cramer

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1231 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

...Update to Aviation Discussion for 18Z Tafs...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

We hate to start forecast discussions with a disclaimer, but here
goes. There is big bust potential today with both temperatures and
PoPs!

As of 2 AM, the weather is fairly quiet across the Missouri
Ozarks. We are monitoring a cluster of strong to severe storms
which is diving southeast across eastern Nebraska. This will be
the first forecast concern as these storms should have no problem
making it into northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri by
daybreak.

The question then becomes whether or not they make it into central
Missouri and portions of extreme southeastern Kansas a bit later
this morning. Low level theta-e and MUCAPE gradients support a
continued southeastward trek. Corfidi vectors will also support
a southeastward motion as a low level jet veers and noses into
the Kansas City metro. We have placed 30-40% PoPs up towards
Highway 54 this morning to account for this. Even if these storms
do not make it this far southeast, we may see widely scattered
development across central Missouri during the predawn and early
morning hours as that veering low level jet induces isentropic
upglide.

Thunderstorm chances this afternoon are then a tough call with
multiple possible triggers. The two main mechanisms appear to be:

1) Any remaining outflow boundaries from morning storms.
2) Storms firing in the Kansas City metro/I-70 corridor with an
   incoming short wave trough.

There seems to be loose agreement in both of these scenarios
playing out from convection allowing models (CAMs).

While some areas may get worked over by morning convection, it
does appear that most of the area will become highly unstable this
afternoon with MLCAPE values of 2500-3500 J/kg. There will also be
anomalously strong westerlies in place across northern and central
Missouri as an upper level speed max punches into the region.

Inspection of RAP forecast soundings indicates that supercell
structures (possibly splitting) are in play this afternoon and
this evening across central Missouri. Thus, large hail would be a
concern if this panned out. High 0-3 km theta-e differentials
(30-35 Kelvin) will also support strong cold pool conglomeration
and a damaging wind threat with storms that congeal into line
segments and move southeast across the region.

At this point, we are going to advertise a limited severe weather
risk given the questions on triggering mechanisms and scenarios.
It is quite possible that the severe risk may be increased later
today.

The other big concern for today is temperatures and heat indices.
Any convection and associated cloud cover will certainly play a
role. At this time, we believe that clouds and precipitation
would tend to keep the eastern Ozarks the coolest.

In stark contrast, forecast 850 mb temperatures in the
19-22 Celsius range will support middle to upper 90s for highs
across western Missouri and southeastern Kansas. With dew points
in the lower to middle 70s, heat indices roughly along and west of
the U.S. 65 corridor will reach the 104 to 109 degree range.

We have decided to add a few counties near the Arkansas border to
the Heat Advisory. We will also have to watch for localized
pooling of dew points as it is not out of the question that some
locations reach heat indices of 110. Thus, a short-fused Excessive
Heat Warning is not out of the realm of possibility.

As we get into tonight, a surface frontal boundary will drift
south across northern Missouri. Models are all over the place
regarding possible scenarios with overnight convection. There does
appear to be a signal for a low level jet stream strengthening and
nosing into the region. Thus, elevated convection will be possible
over parts of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

That front will then continue to drift south and southwest across
the Missouri Ozarks on Friday. We could see a few left-over
showers and thunderstorms in the morning across south-central
Missouri. Thunderstorm chances in the afternoon are then in
question as weak upper level height rises commence. We have
therefore kept PoPs around 20%. PoPs will have to be increased if
breaking the cap appears more attainable, especially in the
vicinity of that front. A slightly better chance for storms may
come Friday night as a low level jet over-rides that frontal
boundary

Hot and humid conditions will persist into Friday, especially
near and south of that front. Highs in the upper 90s to around 100
degrees are expected, especially across far southwestern Missouri
and near the Arkansas border. It is possible that the Heat
Advisory will need to be extended in this area, especially if dew
point/moisture pooling takes place near the front.

Near normal temperatures are then expected from this weekend into
the first half of next week as strong upper level high pressure
over the Desert Southwest puts our region in a northerly flow
aloft. Chances for precipitation look pretty low at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Thunderstorms are pushing southeast across central Missouri early
this afternoon. Additional storms are developing across
northwestern Missouri and also across north central Kansas. This
activity will slide to the south and east this afternoon into
this evening and could clip the Taf sites. This activity will
likely be more scattered in nature. Brief lowering in flight
category and erratic and gusty winds will occur with any storm.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-066>068-
     077>080-088>091-093>096-101>105.

KS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Wise

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1128 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-201630-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
1128 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited flooding risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Significant excessive heat risk.

DISCUSSION...

A complex of strong to severe thunderstorms will impact portions
of central and southern Missouri today. Hail up to the size of
golf balls and damaging wind gusts up to 70 MPH will be the
primary hazards with the most intense storms. Frequent lightning
and locally heavy rainfall can also be expected from the storms
today. There will be a limited threat for localized flash flooding
across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks.

Heat index values of 100 to 110 degrees can be expected this
afternoon and early this evening with the hottest readings
occurring along and west of the Highway 65 corridor.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Afternoon and early evening heat indices of 95 to 105 degrees
will occur again on Friday with the hottest readings across far
southern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas. Afternoon heat
indices from this weekend into the first half of next week will
range from 90 to 100 degrees.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain possible on
Friday and Friday night. Frequent lightning, small hail, and
brief heavy downpours will be the main potential hazards from
these storms. There is then a slight chance for thunderstorms
next
Tuesday across the eastern Ozarks.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed in the next three hours.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

WFO SGF