Severe Thunderstorm Warning 231, NWS Springfield, MO

872 
WWUS53 KSGF 172006
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
306 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2018

MOC009-209-172045-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0231.000000T0000Z-180717T2045Z/
Stone MO-Barry MO-
306 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR STONE AND SOUTHEASTERN BARRY COUNTIES...

At 306 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 10 miles northeast of Cassville to near Beaver, moving
east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Table Rock Lake...                Roaring River State Park...
Silver Dollar City...             Kimberling City...
Shell Knob...                     Reeds Spring...
Indian Point...                   Branson West...
Galena...                         Mccord Bend...
Golden...                         Emerald Beach...
Eagle Rock...                     Blue Eye...
Chain-O-Lakes...                  Arrow Point...
Coney Island...                   Cape Fair...
Jenkins...                        Lampe...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

If on or near Table Rock Lake, get away from the water and move 
indoors or inside a vehicle. remember, lightning can strike out to 
15 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you 
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter 
now!  Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 9384 3680 9377 3681 9331 3650 9332
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 266DEG 20KT 3676 9370 3652 9373 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Cramer

930 
WWUS53 KSGF 172038
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
338 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2018

MOC009-209-172048-
/O.EXP.KSGF.SV.W.0231.000000T0000Z-180717T2045Z/
Stone MO-Barry MO-
338 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR STONE AND SOUTHEASTERN BARRY
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 345 PM CDT...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However heavy rain
is still possible with these thunderstorms.

LAT...LON 3650 9384 3680 9377 3681 9331 3650 9332
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 272DEG 24KT 3675 9346 3651 9349 

$$

Cramer

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1224 PM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

The main concern will be thunderstorm chances and timing.

A weak sfc front moved south of the area late yesterday with sfc
high pressure centered over the western Great Lakes. The low level
front will become oriented as a nw-se oriented boundary from
the Dakotas to eastern KS/OK and into AR. Upper level ridging has
been suppressed to the south and west opening the door for some
disturbances to move from the central and northern Plains into
eastern KS and MO along the boundary/baroclinic zone. A storm complex
now over NE will move southeast and weaken, but a residual
MCV/upper level disturbance moving into se KS may allow some
storms to regenerate this afternoon into this evening, especially
over the western cwfa closer to the low level boundary. A stronger
cell or two is possible with 1000-1500 j/kg mlcape over the far
western cwfa, but sfc dewpoints will be a bit drier than previous
days.

Guidance varies, but another stronger shortwave is expected to
move into SD/NE by 12z/7am Wed with some additional chances for
some elevated convection over the far western cwfa toward
daybreak as the low level flow begins to veer, however, better
chances late tonight would appear to remain off to the northwest.

High temperatures will be a little cooler today, but not much,
and overall fairly seasonable for mid July.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Wednesday: Additional chances for thunderstorms are expected
Wednesday into Thursday morning as a couple of more upper level
impulses move through. The first on Wednesday will be a
continuation of the activity over the eastern Plains from tonight
(Tue night). Instability with ongoing clouds/tstms is questionable
during this time, but vertical 0-6km shear around 30 knots would
support some storm organization Wednesday if pockets of moderately
stronger instability can develop.

Wednesday night-Thursday: The next stronger shortwave will
support storms as far south as our cwfa late Wed night and Thu
morning. Vertical shear looks even stronger, but progged
soundings off the GFS only show modest instability/mucape values.
The shortwave will move off to the east during the day Thursday
so rain chances will primarily be in the morning. Thursday's highs
seem to be a boom or bust situation depending on how long clouds
linger. Blended guidance has highs ranging from the mid 80s east
to the mid 90s west.

Friday-Monday: A closed and slow moving upper low is expected to
develop over the upper Midwest by Thursday and and drift slowly
east into the Great Lakes Friday/Saturday then into the OH Vly
Sunday/Monday. This will keep us in an upper level northwest flow
pattern. A sfc front and shortwave pinwheeling around the main
upper low will support some low chances for afternoon/evening
convection Friday, but better chances will be east of the area.
Drier air will then move in for the weekend. There may be some low
chances for convection late Sunday night and Monday as the
southern extent of another system moves into the Midwest. By
Monday, guidance confidence is quite low and rain chances in the
forecast reflect only very low chances at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Monitoring an area of showers and thunderstorms across southeast
Kansas at the beginning of the TAF period. These will likely move
into JLN early this afternoon. Confidence is low in exactly how
far east this complex will move east therefore will go with VCTS
at SGF and BBG for this afternoon. Additional showers and storms
will be possible generally after 09Z. Outside of any showers and
storms, VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Burchfield

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
130 PM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-181830-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
130 PM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Significant lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive heat risk.
  Limited fog risk.

DISCUSSION...

A line of storms will continue to track southeast across portions
of far southwestern Missouri this afternoon, generally along and
southwest of a Joplin to Branson Missouri line. Frequent lightning
strikes, brief heavy down pours, and gusty winds will occur with
the line. The stronger portions of the line may be capable of
producing damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph at times.

Elsewhere, isolated storms will be possible this afternoon and
evening, the overall severe risk will be low with this activity.

Overnight into Wednesday morning a complex of storms may dive
southeast into and through the area. Damaging winds gusts will be
possible mainly along and west of Highway 65.

Afternoon heat index values will reach the upper 90s to around
100 degrees this afternoon, with the hottest readings occurring
across the southern parts of the outlook area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorm chances will again occur Wednesday into early
Thursday. Some stronger storms will be possible Wednesday
afternoon and evening if enough instability can develop.

Additional thunderstorms will be possible Friday into Friday
night with the passage of a weak front.

Heat index values of 100 to 105 will be possible Thursday into
Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Wise

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
214 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0112 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSE BAXTER SPRINGS    37.01N 94.73W
07/17/2018                   CHEROKEE           KS   PUBLIC

            SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS DOWNED MEDIUM
            SIZED TREE LIMBS ON THE BAXTER SPRINGS GOLF
            COURSE.

&&

CRAMER