Severe Thunderstorm Warning 223, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
616 PM CDT Fri Jul 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Fri Jul 13 2018

A CU field has developed across much of the area with a little
better CU depth near the Highway 65 corridor and on either side
from the Branson area to the SGF area up to the Lake of the Ozarks
area. There have been a couple tiny blips on radar. Over the next
hour or so, we should see some convection developing between Table
Rock Lake and the SGF area. These isolated storms will move
northward. We can't rule out an isolated strong storm with gusty
winds up to 50 mph, small hail, brief heavy downpours, and of
course lightning. All convection will dissipate by sunset with the
loss of daytime heating.

The upper level ridge continues to slowly move eastward and
gradually start seeing less influence on our local weather on
Saturday. It will still remain hot and humid. At this time, we
will continue the existing Heat Advisories but temperatures will
also be creeping slightly downward as well. We do have a slightly
better chance for scattered storms Saturday afternoon and evening
with a disturbance moving into the region and a weak frontal
boundary. These rain chances will bring some relief to a few more
locations tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Fri Jul 13 2018

Scattered storm chances will continue Sunday into Monday along
with more seasonable like warm temperatures thanks to added cloud
cover and a frontal boundary in the area. That frontal boundary
may become oriented from northwest to southeast across the Ozarks
Region with the mid level flow from the northwest. Better than
average rain chances continue into mid week. Guidance shows a
stout shortwave moving across the Midwest Region on Thursday. This
feature will continue storm chances into late next week. While
widespread severe weather is not expected, there is always a
chance for isolated strong to severe storms possible. WPC 7 day
rainfall forecast totals indicate 1 to 2 inches could be possible
which is would be extremely helpful for our drought situation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 604 PM CDT Fri Jul 13 2018

Widely scattered thunderstorms will diminish early this evening
with the loss of daytime heating. Brief MVFR and IFR are expected
around storms. Otherwise, VFR is expected tonight with light south
to southeast winds.

Scattered thunderstorms are then expected Saturday afternoon.
MVFR and brief IFR conditions will occur around storms along with
gusty and erratic winds.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058-066>069-
     077>080-088>090-093-094-101.

KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
636 PM CDT Fri Jul 13 2018

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-142345-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
636 PM CDT Fri Jul 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive heat risk.

DISCUSSION...

  Widely scattered thunderstorms will remain possible through
  mid-evening in the general vicinity of the U.S. 65 corridor.
  The main potential hazards will include cloud to ground
  lightning and wind gusts to 40 mph.

  Heat index values will range from the upper 90s to around
  105 degrees until mid-evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

  Scattered storms will occur at times this weekend into next
  week.

  Heat index values will range from the upper 90s to around
  105 degrees on Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Schaumann

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