Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Springfield, MO

743 
WWUS53 KSGF 142059
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
359 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2018

MOC065-161-142109-
/O.EXP.KSGF.SV.W.0182.000000T0000Z-180614T2100Z/
Dent MO-Phelps MO-
359 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN DENT AND PHELPS
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 400 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small hail,
gusty winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3759 9169 3760 9176 3760 9202 3800 9202
      3795 9152 3779 9153 3779 9149 3763 9147
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 233DEG 12KT 3775 9183 

$$

Hatch

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1235 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 131 AM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

We will see weak upper level height rises today as ridge slowly
builds across the central U.S. We should add a degree or so to
afternoon high temperatures as 850 mb temperatures warm beneath
that ridge.

While the upper level ridging will support synoptic scale
subsidence and warming mid-levels, CAPE and moisture profiles
should still support some isolated thunderstorm coverage this
afternoon and early evening, especially along and east of a Truman
to Table Rock Lake line. Storms that can get going will have some
downburst potential.

Storms that develop will quickly diminish by mid-evening with lows
tonight falling into the 68-74 degree range (coolest readings
across the eastern Ozarks).

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 131 AM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

An isolated pulse thunderstorm threat will persist into the
weekend, especially over areas that have better quality mid and
upper level moisture. Unfortunately, models are all over the place
with synoptic scale humidity profiles. Thus, pulse thunderstorm
potential over a given area will be more of a short term forecast
challenge through the weekend. We are looking at the status quo
for temperatures through Sunday with highs in the low to perhaps
mid 90s and low temperatures in the low to mid 70s.

Global models then continue to indicate that upper level ridge
shifting east and better quality moisture (all levels of the
atmosphere) transporting into the Missouri Ozarks during the
early and middle portions of next week. This alone will support
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Models also try
and bring a frontal boundary south into the area sometime later
Tuesday or Wednesday. Thus, prospects are increasing for showers
and thunderstorms along with slightly cooler conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

Winds will be out of the south to southwest through the TAF period.
Diurnal cumulus clouds will occur this afternoon into early this
evening. Isolated storms will also be possible this afternoon
into early this evening, mainly across the eastern Ozarks. This
activity could affect the TAF sites, but the better chances will
be east of the TAF sites. Confidence was too low due to coverage
to add any mention of thunder in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Wise

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1216 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-151730-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
1216 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive heat risk.

DISCUSSION...

  Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
  into early this evening generally along and east of a Truman to
  Table Rock Lake line. A few of these storms may produce
  damaging downburst winds and hail up to the size of quarters.
  Frequent lightning and brief heavy rainfall can also be
  expected from these isolated storms.

  Heat index values will warm between 95 and 105 degrees this
  afternoon into early this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

  Isolated thunderstorms are possible on a daily basis through
  Sunday, but most areas will remain dry. Better chances for
  thunderstorms will occur from late Monday into Wednesday with
  increased moisture and a front moving into the area.

  Heat index values between 95 and 105 degrees will occur on a
  daily afternoon basis Thursday through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Wise

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
150 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2018

MOZ082-083-098-141930-
Dent MO-Shannon MO-Texas MO-
150 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SHANNON...SOUTHEASTERN DENT AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

At 150 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Summersville, or 19 miles north of Mountain View, moving northeast at
15 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Current River State Park...       Winona...
Birch Tree...                     Eminence...
Summersville...                   Bunker...
Montier...                        Teresita...
Midridge...                       Alley Spring...
Hartshorn...                      Round Spring...
West Eminence...                  Akers...
Pine Crest...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3709 9121 3703 9122 3694 9166 3705 9166
      3705 9168 3738 9168 3753 9132 3751 9131
      3750 9122 3742 9121 3741 9117 3726 9116
      3725 9112 3720 9112 3720 9109 3718 9109
      3714 9102 3710 9102
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 236DEG 11KT 3726 9161

Hatch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
210 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2018

MOZ082-083-098-142000-
Dent MO-Shannon MO-Texas MO-
210 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SHANNON...
SOUTHWESTERN DENT AND NORTHERN TEXAS COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

At 210 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Raymondville, or 7 miles northeast of Houston, moving northeast at 15
mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Montauk State Park...             Licking...
Houston...                        Raymondville...
Montauk...                        Jadwin...
Bucyrus...                        Hazelton...
Success...                        Eunice...
Yukon...                          Akers...
Prescott...                       Darien...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3719 9183 3746 9219 3760 9186 3760 9181
      3763 9181 3767 9171 3740 9150
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 236DEG 11KT 3738 9184

Hatch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
229 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2018

MOZ071-083-142015-
Dent MO-Phelps MO-
229 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DENT AND PHELPS
COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

At 229 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles northwest of Salem, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rolla...                          St. James...
Edgar Springs...                  Lenox...
Bangert...                        Howes...
Beulah...                         Lecoma...
Lake Spring...                    Rosati...
Anutt...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 180 and 183, and
between mile markers 189 and 200.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3760 9181 3760 9196 3773 9203 3777 9203
      3811 9153 3779 9153 3778 9148 3767 9146
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 293DEG 14KT 3774 9174

Hatch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
231 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2018

MOZ097-098-106-142015-
Oregon MO-Howell MO-Shannon MO-
231 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SHANNON...NORTHEASTERN HOWELL AND
NORTHWESTERN OREGON COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

At 231 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Birch Tree, or 13 miles east of Mountain View, moving northeast at 10
mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mountain View...                  Winona...
Birch Tree...                     Eminence...
Montier...                        Thomasville...
Peace Valley...                   Alley Spring...
Teresita...                       West Eminence...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3708 9122 3685 9122 3672 9176 3705 9178
      3705 9166 3711 9165 3731 9116 3726 9116
      3725 9112 3720 9112 3720 9109 3718 9109
      3716 9104 3714 9104 3714 9102 3710 9102
TIME...MOT...LOC 1931Z 243DEG 10KT 3700 9147

Hatch