Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
706 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

In a bit of a lull right now with morning convection having
stabilized conditions. Convection is firing along a distinct
outflow boundary over northeast AR. The boundary becomes less
distinct has farther to west into NW AR. Another shortwave that
extends form south central KS into central OK will shift northeast
with lift increasing over the area, especially the western cwfa
late this afternoon and this early this evening. MLCAPE values off
the HRRR reach 1000-1500 j/kg with around 30kts 0-6km bulk shear
which would support multicell or possibly supercells with a large
hail and damaging wind risk for a few hours before the wave lifts
off to the northeast. Questions still consist of how long
convection will linger into the eastern counties overnight. Have
raised rain chances using a blend of cams/short term guidance.

In general, Monday looks more quiet with weak mid level height
rises.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Mid level shortwave ridging and height rises are expected through
midweek as an upstream closed upper low moves into the western
CONUS. Can't rule out some diurnally driven isolated pulse
convection through midweek, but coverage looks limited. The
western upper trough opens up and lifts well northwest of the
area. Late in the week a blocking upper level pattern develops
with a slow moving upper low moving north out of the Gulf of
Mexico and another moving east from the western CONUS. Chaotic
upper level flow doesn't generate much confidence in the forecast.
May see an uptick in diurnal convection late in the period, but
no major systems are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Pilots can expect variable flight conditions tonight into Monday.
Storms will push east of the terminal sites this evening. A front
will move across the region late tonight and Monday morning
bringing a wind shift and lowering ceilings. Expect MVFR to
potentially IFR ceilings spreading west to east late tonight and
Monday morning. Improving flight conditions can be expected by
Monday afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Foster

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
438 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-212145-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
438 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

Elevated hail risk.
Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
Limited flooding risk.
Elevated lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop and move north
and northeast through parts of southeast Kansas and central and
southwest Missouri. Some of these storms may be severe with hail
to the size of half dollars and damaging wind gusts. Frequent
lightning and locally heavy rainfall can also be expected with
these storms. The threat for severe storms will begin to diminish
by late evening.

Due to recent heavy rainfall, the potential for flooding will
persist into tonight mainly from extreme southeastern Kansas into
west-central Missouri.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible at times this
week, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. In
general the storm coverage is expected to be more limited and
organized severe weather is not expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through this evening for damaging
winds and hail reports.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

DSA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
539 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

MOZ067-202330-
St. Clair MO-
539 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTY UNTIL
630 PM CDT...

At 539 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Weaubleau, or 16 miles northeast of Stockton, moving
north at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Truman Lake...                    Osceola...
Collins...                        Vista...
Gerster...                        Harper...
Iconium...

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
central and west central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3821 9354 3821 9351 3820 9350 3792 9351
      3792 9357 3790 9357 3785 9365 3788 9379
      3820 9368 3820 9356 3822 9356
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 201DEG 27KT 3791 9368

Wise

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
551 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0551 PM     HAIL             1 NW WEST BRANSON       36.70N 93.38W
05/20/2018  E0.75 INCH       STONE              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

FEH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
552 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

MOZ095-104-202330-
Taney MO-Christian MO-
552 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CHRISTIAN AND NORTH
CENTRAL TANEY COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

At 552 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Taneyville, or 7 miles north of Forsyth, moving north at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sparta...                         Taneyville...
Oldfield...                       Garrison...
Chadwick...                       Elkhead...
Bruner...                         Keltner...

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
southwestern Missouri.

LAT...LON 3675 9316 3709 9307 3708 9290 3686 9291
      3671 9304
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 201DEG 27KT 3678 9309

Wise

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
635 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             TANEYVILLE              36.74N 93.03W
05/20/2018  E0.88 INCH       TANEY              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

FEH

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
659 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0659 PM     HAIL             1 W GOODHOPE            36.91N 92.82W
05/20/2018  E0.75 INCH       DOUGLAS            MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

FEH