Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
608 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 123 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

A strongly unstable airmass resided over the Missouri Ozarks
region this afternoon. A few boundaries were located across the
area. This boundaries in conjunction with an incoming wave from
Kansas will help to initiate strong to severe storms this
afternoon and evening primarily along and southeast of Interstate
44. All modes of severe weather are possible with this activity
with potential for significant hail up to tennis ball size. The
most intense storms will occur across south central missouri or
southeast of Interstate 44. Most of the storms will move
southeast of the area by 10pm.

Mid level heights rise on Friday with high temps soaring into the
lower 90s at most locations. Heat Indicies will approach the low
100s across western Missouri. No precipitation is expected.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 123 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

Attention then turns to Saturday as a mid level shortwave moves
east across Nebraska and Iowa. A complex of storms looks to form
to our northwest Friday night and move southeast toward northern
Missouri by early Saturday morning. Will then need to monitor left
over boundaries as GFS is showing ML capes over 4000j/kg over the
eastern half of the area Saturday afternoon. If storms form they
would likely become severe, forecast trends will need to be
monitored for Saturday afternoon.

Northwest flow pattern will develop through next Tuesday with
generally dry weather until a passing wave brings rain chances
next Wednesday. High temps will remain in the 80s to around 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 602 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

For the 00z TAFS, outflow boundary which has been instigator in
storm development this afternoon and evening was south of JLN/SGF
and not expecting anything at their terminals through the period.
For BBG, storms a bit too close to not at least mention with a
vcts wording, but probably will not keep in for more than the
first two hours of the forecast. Have thrown in some MVFR
conditions between 11z-14z with some light fog developing in
almost calm wind field.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Lindenberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Springfield MO
225 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-011930-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
225 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated tornado risk.
  Elevated hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited flooding risk.
  Significant lightning risk.
  Limited excessive heat risk.

DISCUSSION...

Strong to severe thunderstorms will develop early this afternoon
across the Interstate 44 corridor and move southeast during the
afternoon and evening hours as a very unstable airmass over the
region interacts with a remnant outflow boundary.

Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts up to 70 mph and hail up to the
size of tennis balls will be the main threats. Isolated tornadoes
are possible along and south of Interstate 44 with the best chance
for a tornado across south central missouri. Cloud to ground
lightning will be likely in all thunderstorms. The overall highest
threat for severe thunderstorms will be southeast of Interstate
44 this afternoon and evening.

Due to the abundant moisture and potential redevelopment of
storms over the same area, localized flash flooding of low lying
areas will be possible, especially across south central missouri.

Heat index values will rise into the mid 90s over portions of
southwest Missouri this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Another round of thunderstorms is expected on Saturday, mainly
over the eastern Missouri Ozarks. A few strong to severe storms
will be possible.

Afternoon heat index values will reach near 100 degrees Friday and
Saturday afternoons especially along and west of the Interstate
49 corridor.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation may be needed in the next three hours for
  locations along and south of Interstate 44.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Burchfield

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
646 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             1 NNE MANSFIELD         37.12N 92.58W
05/31/2018  E1.00 INCH       WRIGHT             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NICKLE TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL VERY HEAVY
            LIGHTING STRIKES. HWY 5 DOUGLES AND
            MANSFIELD LIN.

&&

TEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
647 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0632 PM     HAIL             EMINENCE                37.15N 91.36W
05/31/2018  E1.75 INCH       SHANNON            MO   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

&&

TEO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
656 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

MOZ098-106-010045-
Oregon MO-Shannon MO-
656 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SHANNON AND NORTHERN
OREGON COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

At 656 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Birch Tree, or 13 miles southeast of Mountain View, moving east at 30
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Winona...                         Birch Tree...
Montier...                        Thomasville...
Greer...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for south central
Missouri.

LAT...LON 3672 9113 3674 9163 3700 9160 3699 9122
      3685 9122 3683 9123 3682 9111
TIME...MOT...LOC 2356Z 278DEG 25KT 3691 9148

Hatch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
704 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

MOZ082-092-010045-
Wright MO-Texas MO-
704 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WRIGHT AND
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

At 704 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mountain Grove, moving east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mountain Grove...                 Cabool...
Dawson...                         Norwood...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for south central
and southwestern Missouri.

LAT...LON 3706 9214 3710 9247 3727 9238 3730 9203
      3705 9205 3705 9213
TIME...MOT...LOC 0004Z 273DEG 14KT 3717 9231

Hatch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
716 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

MOZ092-096-010100-
Douglas MO-Wright MO-
716 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DOUGLAS AND SOUTHERN
WRIGHT COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

At 716 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mansfield, or 11 miles northeast of Ava, moving east at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mansfield...                      Norwood...
Drury...                          Vanzant...
Brushyknob...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for south central
and southwestern Missouri.

LAT...LON 3699 9265 3714 9267 3708 9225 3706 9224
      3705 9210 3688 9209
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 274DEG 16KT 3707 9252

Hatch

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
806 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     HAIL             4 SSE AKERS             37.31N 91.54W
05/31/2018  E0.88 INCH       SHANNON            MO   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL REPORTED BY PUBLIC. TIME
            ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

&&

MA