Small Craft Advisory 41, NWS Seattle, WA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
951 AM PST Sun Feb 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Cold and dry air from the interior of western Canada
will spread across Western Washington this afternoon and evening,
and a cold upper low will exit. This will help snow showers
gradually taper off this afternoon. Look for dry, northerly flow
aloft to become established over the area tonight and continue
into Monday for cold and dry weather. A weak low pressure system
will bring some light precipitation to the coast and Southwest
Washington on Tuesday. A series of systems moving in from the
northwest will keep chances of light precipitation going for the
rest of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...The Bellingham-Williams Lake pressure gradient is
currently near -15 mb, which is strong but not as strong as
previously forecast. This is the gradient that correlates best to
the strength of northeasterly Fraser Outflow. Dewpoints have
really dropped in the northeast winds near Bellingham and the San
Juans. The arrival of drier continental air over Northwest
Washington will help snow showers to gradually taper off. The
heaviest area of snow from Port Angeles east to near Arlington is
showing signs of weakening now. The decreasing trend be an
ongoing trend throughout the afternoon. The movement of a cold
upper low over Southwest Washington will cause snow showers to end
there last, i.e. late today. Most Winter Weather Advisories and
Warnings will end at noon, except for 4 pm in the Southwest
Interior. This looks like a good glidepath moving forward.

A cold and dry air mass will be in place on Monday, with a
widespread hard freeze both tonight and Monday night.

The 00z ECMWF continues to show light precip spreading onto the
coast and into Southwest Washington on Tuesday afternoon and
evening. A larger minority of GFS ensemble members is now showing
this is as well. Any light precip that spreads onshore late
Tuesday will fall as snow over the lowlands. Haner

.LONG TERM...A series of systems moving in from the
northwest will keep chances of light precipitation going for the
rest of the week, with a cool air mass supporting snow or a
rain/snow mix over the lowlands when precip occurs. Haner

&&

.AVIATION...A low pressure center is near Grays Harbor this
morning moving slowly southeast. There are scattered snow showers
over the region and these will dry up and be pushed south over the
course of the day as the dry northerly flow pushes south. Cold
Fraser outflow will continue into tonight in the north.

KSEA...Most of the snow shower activity around Puget Sound this
morning seems to be closer to the Kitsap Peninsula and Hood Canal,
but Seattle met yet get a skiff before the north wind dries the air
up this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...A modified arctic front will shift south through Western
Washington today so north winds should develop over Puget Sound and
be quite brisk through the afternoon. Fraser NE outflow gales are
occurring in the north. A surface low is near the south Washington
coast and that is moving into southwest Wa. Gradients will ease
Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...River flooding is not expected the next 7 days.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for
     Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-East Puget Sound
     Lowlands-Southwest Interior.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for San Juan County-
     Western Skagit County-Western Whatcom County.

     Winter Storm Warning until noon PST today for Everett and
     Vicinity-Olympics.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon PST today for Admiralty Inlet
     Area-Central Coast-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Lower
     Chehalis Valley Area-North Coast-Western Skagit County-
     Western Strait of Juan De Fuca.

     High Surf Advisory until 2 PM PST this afternoon for Central
     Coast-North Coast.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory for rough bar until 4 AM PST Monday for
     Grays Harbor Bar.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PST Monday for Admiralty Inlet-
     Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60
     Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
     Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
     To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
     Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To
     Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
     Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-Puget Sound and Hood
     Canal-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Gale Warning until 4 AM PST Monday for Central U.S. Waters
     Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of
     Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan
     Islands.

&&

www.weather.gov/seattle

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