Small Craft Advisory 24, NWS Seattle, WA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
920 PM PST Sun Jan 28 2018...Corrected aviation section

.SYNOPSIS...A frontal system will move slowly through Western
Washington. The freezing level is high and heavy rain in the
Olympics and North Cascades brings a chance of flooding to several
rivers. Cooler showery will lower the snow level back below the
passes Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...The front will shift through Western WA slowly through
Monday with heavy rain--especially along the coast, and in the
Olympics and North Cascades. Snow levels will remain high til
Monday evening and flood Watches are in effect. NWAC issued an
avalanche warning for the North Cascades on both sides of the crest.

The air behind the front will drop the snow level back below the
passes Monday night through midweek. A PSCZ might enhance the snow
showers at times in the central Cascades by Tuesday evening before
the shower taper off.

.LONG TERM...The extended models continue to show some moisture
over the region in W to NW flow. Previous solutions were hinting
at a break but this is pretty much gone in the 12z ECMWF. The GFS
is similar. So there's at least a chance of rain each day through
next weekend. Most of the activity will be along the coast and in
the mountains. Temperatures are close to normal. 33

&&

.AVIATION...A cold front stalled just north of Washington
tonight will push southeast across the area Monday. Moderate to
strong southwest flow aloft becoming light westerly MOnday
night. The air mass is moist and stable. Rain over the Olympic
Peninsula extending to the north interior tonight will spread
southeast later tonight ahead of the front. Moderate rainfall Monday
will taper to showers behind the front Monday night. Widespread MVFR
cigs across the north tonight including KBLI, otherwise low VFR from
KPAE southward except isolated pockets of IFR including KPWT/KOLM.
Widespread MVFR on Monday with moderate rainfall across the area.
Cigs improving to a mix of MVFR and VFR behind the front Monday
night with rain tapering to showers.

Strong southwest flow of around 40 kt at 2k ft develops Monday
Morning. S-SE surface winds will not increase until midday around
central/south Puget Sound to the southwest interior. Will indicate
LLWS at KSEA/KBFI/KOLM for SW wind to 40 kt at 2k ft between 14-20Z
Monday.

KSEA...VFR and mostly dry tonight, becoming MVFR as rain
develops around 13-15Z continuing through the day. MVFR or low VFR
by Monday evening as rain tapers to showers. Southerly wind 8-12 kt
tonight and early Monday, becoming southwest and increasing to 12-15
kt w/gusts 25 kt Monday afternoon. dtm

&&

.MARINE...Strong southeast pressure gradients will support low-end
gale force winds to 35 kt over much of the coastal waters tonight.
Small craft winds over remaining waters through Monday. Winds will
becoming westerly in the Strait during the afternoon as a front
pushes through the interior waters.

Onshore flow will follow the cold front Monday night and Tuesday.
Small craft winds will likely persist over the coastal waters and
Strait, and possible some other interior waters. Onshore flow
weakens Wednesday, then small craft winds return to most waters
Thursday and Thursday night as the next front arrives. dtm

&&

.HYDROLOGY...There is a Flood Watch for the rivers coming
out of the Olympics and North Cascades. The Skokomish River in Mason
county is at risk of flooding tonight through Monday. Flooding
is also possible on rivers flowing off the rest of the Olympics and
the Cascades of Whatcom, Skagit and possibly Snohomish counties late
Monday afternoon or Monday night. A cool and showery pattern Tue and
Wed will allow the rivers to recede midweek.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Flood Watch for Clallam, Jefferson, Grays Harbor, Mason,
Whatcom,
     Skagit, and Snohomish counties.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory for rough bar until 4 PM PST Monday for
     Grays Harbor Bar.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Tuesday for Coastal Waters
     From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 4 AM PST Tuesday for
     Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60
     Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
     Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
     To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
     Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To
     Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm.

     Gale Warning until 4 AM PST Monday for Coastal Waters From Cape
     Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
     From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Monday for Admiralty Inlet-
     East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern
     Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands-Puget Sound
     and Hood Canal.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday for West Entrance
     U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

&&

www.weather.gov/seattle

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