Wind Advisory 14, NWS Blacksburg, VA

794 
WWUS71 KRNK 151714
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
114 PM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

...Gusty winds and wet soils could bring down trees late this
afternoon into Sunday...

.Northeast winds will increase again this afternoon then shift 
to the southeast Sunday as Florence tracks inland across South 
Carolina, before turning northwest into the Southern Appalachians 
Sunday. The winds will be gusting as high as 35 to 50 mph, 
especially along the ridges.

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ009-015-016-032-160115-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0014.180915T2000Z-180916T2000Z/
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Smyth-Grayson-Carroll-
Patrick-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Dobson, Boone, 
Wilkesboro, Marion, Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, 
Galax, and Stuart
114 PM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* Winds...Northeast at 15 to 25 mph, with gusts to 50 mph, 
  becoming southeast Sunday.

* Timing...Late this afternoon through Sunday afternoon.

* Impacts...These wind gusts combined with saturated soils will 
  cause some trees to fall. Scattered power outages are possible 
  as well.

* Locations...Along the Blue Ridge from Patrick County, south to 
  Wilkes, then west to the Grayson Highlands.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This Wind Advisory is issued for gusts of 35 to 50 mph combining 
with wet soils to potentially down trees and cause power outages. 
Secure any outdoor loose objects and be alert to the potential for
downed trees and power outages.

&&

$$

570 
WWUS71 KRNK 151914
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
314 PM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

...Gusty winds and wet soils could bring down trees tonight into 
Sunday...

.Northeast winds will increase again tonight before shifting
to the southeast Sunday as Florence tracks inland across South 
Carolina. The winds will be gusting as high as 35 to 55 mph, 
especially along the ridges.

NCZ020-VAZ007-010-012-013-017-WVZ042-160315-
/O.EXA.KRNK.WI.Y.0014.180915T2000Z-180916T2000Z/
Yadkin-Tazewell-Bland-Wythe-Pulaski-Floyd-Mercer-
Including the cities of Yadkinville, Tazewell, Bland, Wytheville,
Radford, Pulaski, Floyd, Bluefield, and Flat Top
314 PM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY...

The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has issued a Wind
Advisory, which is in effect until 4 PM EDT Sunday.

* Winds...Northeast at 15 to 25 mph, with gusts to 50 mph, 
  becoming southeast Sunday.

* Timing...Tonight through Sunday afternoon.

* Impacts...These wind gusts combined with saturated soils will 
  cause some trees to fall. Scattered power outages are possible 
  as well.

* Locations...Parts of the New River Valley into the Mountain
  Empire of Virginia, including Mercer county in southeast West
  Virginia, and Yadkin county in northwest North Carolina.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This Wind Advisory is issued for gusts of 35 to 50 mph combining
with wet soils to potentially down trees and cause power outages.
Secure any outdoor loose objects and be alert to the potential
for downed trees and power outages.

&&

$$

NCZ003-019-VAZ009-015-016-032-160315-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0014.180915T2000Z-180916T2000Z/
Surry-Wilkes-Smyth-Grayson-Carroll-Patrick-
Including the cities of Dobson, Wilkesboro, Marion, Independence,
Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, Galax, and Stuart
314 PM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* Winds...Northeast at 15 to 25 mph, with gusts to 50 mph, 
  becoming southeast Sunday.

* Timing...Tonight through Sunday afternoon.

* Impacts...These wind gusts combined with saturated soils will 
  cause some trees to fall. Scattered power outages are possible 
  as well.

* Locations...Along the Blue Ridge from Patrick County, south to 
  Wilkes, then west to the Grayson Highlands.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This Wind Advisory is issued for gusts of 35 to 50 mph combining
with wet soils to potentially down trees and cause power outages.
Secure any outdoor loose objects and be alert to the potential
for downed trees and power outages.

&&

$$

NCZ001-002-018-160315-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0014.180915T2000Z-180916T2000Z/
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, and Boone
314 PM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* Winds...Northeast at 20 to 30 mph, with gusts to 55 mph or
  higher on the ridges, becoming southeast Sunday.

* Timing...Tonight through Sunday afternoon.

* Impacts...These wind gusts combined with saturated soils will 
  cause some trees to fall. Scattered power outages are possible 
  as well.

* Locations...Across the North Carolina High Country.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This Wind Advisory is issued for gusts of 35 to 55 mph combining 
with wet soils to potentially down trees and cause power outages. 
Secure any outdoor loose objects and be alert to the potential for
downed trees and power outages.

&&

$$

568 
WWUS71 KRNK 160057
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
857 PM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

...Gusty winds and wet soils could bring down trees tonight and 
Sunday...

.Northeast winds will increase tonight before shifting to the 
southeast Sunday as Florence tracks inland across South Carolina. 

NCZ003-019-020-VAZ007-009-010-012-013-015>017-032-WVZ042-161200-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-180916T2000Z/
Surry-Wilkes-Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Wythe-Pulaski-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Patrick-Mercer-
Including the cities of Dobson, Wilkesboro, Yadkinville, 
Tazewell, Marion, Bland, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, 
Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, Galax, Floyd, Stuart, 
Bluefield, and Flat Top
857 PM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* Winds...Northeast at 15 to 25 mph, with gusts to 50 mph, 
  becoming southeast Sunday.

* Timing...Through Sunday afternoon.

* Impacts...These wind gusts combined with saturated soils will 
  cause some trees to fall. Scattered power outages are possible 
  as well.

* Locations...Along the Blue Ridge from Patrick County, south to 
  Wilkes, then west to the Grayson Highlands.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This Wind Advisory is issued for gusts of 35 to 50 mph combining
with wet soils to potentially down trees and cause power outages.
Secure any outdoor loose objects and be alert to the potential
for downed trees and power outages.

&&

$$

NCZ001-002-018-161200-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-180916T2000Z/
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, and Boone
857 PM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* Winds...Northeast at 20 to 30 mph, with gusts to 55 mph or 
  higher on the ridges, becoming southeast Sunday.

* Timing...Through Sunday afternoon.

* Impacts...These wind gusts combined with saturated soils will
  cause some trees to fall. Scattered power outages are likely as
  well.

* Locations...Across the North Carolina High Country.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This Wind Advisory is issued for gusts of 35 to 55 mph combining
with wet soils to potentially down trees and cause power outages.
Secure any outdoor loose objects and be alert to the potential
for downed trees and power outages.

&&

$$

360 
WWUS71 KRNK 160922
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
522 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...Gusty winds and wet soils could bring down trees today...

.East winds will shift to the southeast this afternoon as 
Florence tracks inland across upstate South Carolina.

NCZ003-019-020-VAZ007-009-010-012-013-015>017-032-WVZ042-161730-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-180916T2000Z/
Surry-Wilkes-Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Wythe-Pulaski-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Patrick-Mercer-
Including the cities of Dobson, Wilkesboro, Yadkinville, 
Tazewell, Marion, Bland, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, 
Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, Galax, Floyd, Stuart, 
Bluefield, and Flat Top
522 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* Winds...East 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Timing...Through this afternoon.

* Impacts...These wind gusts combined with saturated soils will 
  cause some trees to fall. Scattered power outages are possible 
  as well.

* Locations...Along the Blue Ridge from Patrick County, south to 
  Wilkes, then west to the Grayson Highlands.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This Wind Advisory is issued for gusts of 35 to 45 mph combining 
with wet soils to potentially down trees and cause power outages. 
Secure any outdoor loose objects and be alert to the potential for
downed trees and power outages.

&&

$$

NCZ001-002-018-161730-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-180916T2000Z/
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, and Boone
522 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* Winds...East 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Timing...Through Sunday afternoon.

* Impacts...These wind gusts combined with saturated soils will 
  cause some trees to fall. Scattered power outages are likely 
  as well.

* Locations...Across the North Carolina High Country.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This Wind Advisory is issued for gusts of 35 to 45 mph combining
with wet soils to potentially down trees and cause power outages.
Secure any outdoor loose objects and be alert to the potential
for downed trees and power outages.

&&

$$

661 
WWUS71 KRNK 161629
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1229 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...Gusty winds and wet soils could bring down trees this afternoon...

.East winds will shift to the southeast this afternoon as
Florence tracks inland across upstate South Carolina.

NCZ003-019-020-VAZ007-009-010-012-013-015>017-032-WVZ042-162000-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-180916T2000Z/
Surry-Wilkes-Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Wythe-Pulaski-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Patrick-Mercer-
Including the cities of Dobson, Wilkesboro, Yadkinville, 
Tazewell, Marion, Bland, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, 
Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, Galax, Floyd, Stuart, 
Bluefield, and Flat Top
1229 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* Winds...East 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Timing...Through this afternoon.

* Impacts...These wind gusts combined with saturated soils will 
  cause some trees to fall. Scattered power outages are possible 
  as well.

* Locations...Along the Blue Ridge from Patrick County, south to 
  Wilkes, then west to the Grayson Highlands.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This Wind Advisory is issued for gusts of 35 to 45 mph combining
with wet soils to potentially down trees and cause power outages.
Secure any outdoor loose objects and be alert to the potential
for downed trees and power outages.

&&

$$

NCZ001-002-018-162000-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-180916T2000Z/
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, and Boone
1229 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* Winds...East 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* Timing...Through this afternoon.

* Impacts...These wind gusts combined with saturated soils will 
  cause some trees to fall. Scattered power outages are likely 
  as well.

* Locations...Across the North Carolina High Country.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This Wind Advisory is issued for gusts of 35 to 45 mph combining
with wet soils to potentially down trees and cause power outages.
Secure any outdoor loose objects and be alert to the potential
for downed trees and power outages.

&&

$$

705 
WWUS71 KRNK 161853
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
253 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...Gusty winds and wet soils could bring down trees into tonight...

.East winds will shift to the southeast tonight as Florence 
tracks along the southern Appalachians and into eastern Kentucky
by early Monday.

NCZ003-019-020-VAZ007-009-010-012-013-015>017-032-WVZ042-170300-
/O.EXT.KRNK.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-180917T0400Z/
Surry-Wilkes-Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Wythe-Pulaski-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Patrick-Mercer-
Including the cities of Dobson, Wilkesboro, Yadkinville, 
Tazewell, Marion, Bland, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, 
Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, Galax, Floyd, Stuart, 
Bluefield, and Flat Top
253 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

* Winds...East 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Timing...Through midnight.

* Impacts...These wind gusts combined with saturated soils will 
  cause some trees to fall. Scattered power outages are possible 
  as well.

* Locations...Along the Blue Ridge from Patrick County, south to 
  Wilkes, then west to the Grayson Highlands.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This Wind Advisory is issued for gusts of 35 to 45 mph combining
with wet soils to potentially down trees and cause power outages.
Secure any outdoor loose objects and be alert to the potential
for downed trees and power outages.

&&

$$

NCZ001-002-018-170300-
/O.EXT.KRNK.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-180917T0400Z/
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, and Boone
253 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

* Winds...East 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* Timing...Through midnight.

* Impacts...These wind gusts combined with saturated soils will 
  cause some trees to fall. Scattered power outages are likely 
  as well.

* Locations...Across the North Carolina High Country.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This Wind Advisory is issued for gusts of 35 to 50 mph combining 
with wet soils to potentially down trees and cause power outages. 
Secure any outdoor loose objects and be alert to the potential for
downed trees and power outages.

&&

$$

408 
WWUS71 KRNK 170211
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1011 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...Gusty winds and wet soils could bring down trees into
tonight...

.East winds will shift to the southeast tonight as Florence
tracks along the southern Appalachians and into eastern Kentucky
by early Monday.

NCZ003-019-020-VAZ007-009-010-012-013-015>017-032-WVZ042-170800-
/O.EXT.KRNK.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-180917T0800Z/
Surry-Wilkes-Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Wythe-Pulaski-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Patrick-Mercer-
Including the cities of Dobson, Wilkesboro, Yadkinville, 
Tazewell, Marion, Bland, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, 
Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, Galax, Floyd, Stuart, 
Bluefield, and Flat Top
1011 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY...

* Winds...East 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Timing...Through early Monday morning.

* Impacts...These wind gusts combined with saturated soils will 
  cause some trees to fall. Scattered power outages are possible 
  as well.

* Locations...Along the Blue Ridge from Patrick County, south to 
  Wilkes, then west to the Grayson Highlands.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This Wind Advisory is issued for gusts of 35 to 45 mph combining
with wet soils to potentially down trees and cause power outages.
Secure any outdoor loose objects and be alert to the potential
for downed trees and power outages.

&&

$$

NCZ001-002-018-170800-
/O.EXT.KRNK.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-180917T0800Z/
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, and Boone
1011 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY...

* Winds...East 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* Timing...Through early Monday morning.

* Impacts...These wind gusts combined with saturated soils will 
  cause some trees to fall. Scattered power outages are likely 
  as well.

* Locations...Across the North Carolina High Country.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This Wind Advisory is issued for gusts of 35 to 50 mph combining
with wet soils to potentially down trees and cause power outages.
Secure any outdoor loose objects and be alert to the potential
for downed trees and power outages.

&&

$$

625 
WWUS71 KRNK 170757
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
357 AM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018


NCZ003-019-020-VAZ007-009-010-012-013-015>017-032-WVZ042-170900-
/O.EXP.KRNK.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-180917T0800Z/
Surry-Wilkes-Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Wythe-Pulaski-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Patrick-Mercer-
Including the cities of Dobson, Wilkesboro, Yadkinville, 
Tazewell, Marion, Bland, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, 
Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, Galax, Floyd, Stuart, 
Bluefield, and Flat Top
357 AM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM THIS MORNING...

Southeast winds may still gust as high as 35 mph this morning, but
will generally average 20 to 30 mph early. Some trees could still
fall given wet ground conditions.

$$

NCZ001-002-018-170900-
/O.EXP.KRNK.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-180917T0800Z/
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, and Boone
357 AM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

Southeast winds may still gust as high as 35 mph this morning, but
will generally average 20 to 30 mph early. Some trees could still
fall given wet ground conditions.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
425 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Florence will track inland into South Carolina today before
passing northward across the southern Appalachians and into the
Ohio Valley Sunday through Monday. Periods of rain and gusty
winds will accompany this system bringing the threat of
significant flooding by Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Saturday...

All eyes on Florence as it continues to drift west-southwest across
eastern South Carolina, with northern edge of rain shield
along/south of I-40 in NC generally east of the Triangle.

Radar has been fairly quiet but even a few showers with echoes of 25-
30db are rain efficient, but hourly rates are generally a quarter
inch or less, but very isolated higher rates possible.

Current flash flood watch headlines will hold fast as bulk of
heavier rains will occur late tonight into Monday morning and still
looks like the NC mountains/foothills up the Blue Ridge in VA to
Roanoke could see 6-10 inches of rain with locally higher amounts,
especially in places like Meadows of Dan/Fancy Gap down to Blowing
Rock.

Winds will pick up as the center of Florence gets closer, with 8h
flow increasing to 45 to 55 kts in NC. Will likely be hoisting a
wind advisory for our NC mountains/foothills into portions of far SW
VA and the Blue Ridge later this morning. Strongest winds are
expected late this afternoon/early evening into Sunday.

Overall wind speeds stay under our normal advisory levels of more
than 45 mph gusts, but with rain and wet ground, any gusts over 35
mph will likely down a few trees.

For today, will see bulk of rain shield shift northwest to the Blue
Ridge south of Roanoke to Boone, east to southside VA, with lower
chances over WV. Heavier downpours likely at times mainly
along/south of the VA/NC border.

Will see area of rain moving northwest overnight though overall low
level flow remains east to northeast so best enhancement of rainfall
looks to hold off until after dawn Sunday as flow turns more
orthogonal to the Blue Ridge out of the southeast. Despite this
delay high PWATs of 2+ inches and tropical airmass will lead to
higher rain efficiency.

Will have categorical pops over most of the area by late tonight,
with likely pops north of I-64, and northeast of Lynchburg.

Highs will continue to be held down by clouds and eventually rain in
the 70s today, with some 60s NC mountains, with lows tonight about 5-
10 degrees cooler than the highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Friday...

We are anticipating a prolonged period of rain associated with
the remnants of Hurricane Florence. The remnant center is
forecast to track north through the southern/central Appalachians
Sunday and Monday. Heavy rains over the Carolinas are expected
to expand northward with potential for prolific rainfall along
the spine of the Appalachians from North Carolina into
Southwestern Virginia. Flooding remains the primary threat
owing to heavy and persistent rainfall as it interacts with the
mountainous terrain. Storm total rainfall amounts of 5 to 15 inches
are still being forecast with the higher end amounts focused along
the crest of the Blue Ridge southwest of Roanoke into the High
Country of North Carolina. This suggest moderate to major flooding
will become possible along the main stem rivers...which include the
New River, Roanoke, Dan, Yadkin, and Watauga Rivers, and the
associated tributaries. While the primary rainfall occurs within
these river basins, concerns for flooding with respective flood
watch headlines may need to be extended farther north pending track
and trends going forward in time. There are still model differences
with respect to timing which may speed up or delay the system from
exiting the region Monday and Tuesday.

The strongest low level shear and helicity will also be
realized on Sunday into Sunday night, indicating an increased
threat of a few, brief spin-up tornadoes within the stronger rain
bands. Winds during this time will average in the 15 to 25 mph range
sustained, with some gusts approaching 35 mph for much of the area,
though ridge tops such as the Blue Ridge Parkway may experience
gusts up to 45 mph. As such, the issuance of a wind advisory will
become prudent.

Between the combination of heavy rain and gusty winds,
preparations should be made for a wide range of hazards. Heavy
rain will quickly saturate our already moist soil conditions,
resulting in a heightened potential for down trees and rock/land
slides which may begin to occur and potentially compromise
roadways. As rainfall persists, streams and rivers may rise
rapidly, resulting in a strong threat for flooding. Power
outages and losses of telecommunications are likely, which may
last for extended periods of time, perhaps several days. Folks
are strongly advised to anticipate these hazards and prepare
accordingly.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Friday...

Subtropical ridge of high pressure is forecast to build back
across the southeastern CONUS with temperatures favoring above
normal readings for the remainder of the week. Dewpoints will
also remain elevated, so anticipating summer-like conditions as
we progress through the 3rd week of September. A cold front will
approach late in the week providing an uptick in shower/storm
chances in the Friday/Saturday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 132 AM EDT Saturday...

Aviation conditions will be poor across the forecast area
through much of the period. Periods of showers will stick around
from LYH/DAN to BCB/ROA with ceilings at or below 1000 ft, and
visibilities at times IFR 2-3SM. Low clouds and fog will also
hinder the BLF/LWB area with less threat of showers until later
today into Sat night.

Expect northeast winds to gust at times across the entire area,
with highest gusts to 30-35kts possible at DAN this morning.
Lower winds anticipated at LWB further away from Florence.

Ceilings and vsbys will improve at times during the daylight
hours after 14z especially in BLF/LWB but no higher than high
end MVFR.

More widespread showers are expected Sat night by 00-06z mainly
south of a line from BLF-LYH.

There is high confidence in IFR or lower this morning and medium
on vsbys and rain threat through the period. Confidence on
ceilings drop to medium this afternoon/evening.

There is an outside threat of low level wind shear Sat evening
nearing DAN, but too far out to add to TAFS.

Extended Discussion...

Rainfall will spread north and west through late Sat night
through Monday with poor flying conditions under strong
easterly winds especially mountains. Winds will swing to the
east by Sunday then to the southwest to west early next week.
Will see Florence shift north of us by Tuesday of next week with
conditions improving. Drier weather is expected for Wednesday.

Confidence gradually transitions to below average through
Sunday due to existing uncertainties associated with the
movement and placement of Florence.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 400 AM Saturday...

Latest model output continues to suggest heavy rainfall across
at least the southern half of the region with much of this
occurring Saturday night into Monday. Rainfall rates will likely
be higher across northwest North Carolina as deeper banding
occurs just to the northeast of Florence by Sunday. This may
spell excessive rainfall of 5 to 10 inches there with locally
heavier totals pending just how the bands pan out. Elsewhere,
appears that a wedge of high pressure aided by strong northeast
flow may tend to lessen rainfall rates heading north into parts
of Virginia until this cool pool exits by early Monday. This
would support a bit less rainfall heading north until things
become more banded and convective in nature on Monday. However
rainfall exceeding 5 inches appears likely espcly along and east
of the Blue Ridge in Virginia.

This has resulted in projections of moderate to major flooding
along the New, Roanoke and Dan Rivers by early next week.

Given the above the current flash flood watch remains as is.

Otherwise the effects of the wet antecedent conditions are
unclear because if it rains hard enough and long enough it may
not matter much but soil moisture and stream flows are well
above the seasonal norms. Output from the National Water Model
shows positive streamflow anomalies on nearly all our streams
and rivers for this time of year and similar numbers are shown
on the USGS Waterwatch website. The Roanoke River at Roanoke
forecast point for example, is running at the 98th percentile of
all flows for this date and over 500 percent of the mean flow
for the date. The New River at Allisonia, above Claytor Lake is
at the 95th percentile and over 200 percent of mean flow.
Because these flows are near their annual minima in early to
mid- September it may be a less of a factor but cannot be
discounted.

With the existing QPF consensus, moderate to major flooding
within several river basins is a very real possibility. The
other concern is the risk for landslides which become start to
become a concern in steep terrain with 5 inches or more of rain
and a big concern above 10 inches. This has been included within
the current Flash flood Watches that are in effect.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flash Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT this morning through Monday
     evening for VAZ009-012>017-022-032-033-043-044-058.
NC...Flash Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT this morning through Monday
     evening for NCZ001>006-018>020.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...PM/RCS
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/KK/WP
HYDROLOGY...JH/PC/WP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
439 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

VAZ007-010-011-018>020-023-024-034-035-045>047-059-WVZ042>044-507-
508-160845-
Tazewell-Bland-Giles-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Bedford-Amherst-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Charlotte-Mercer-
Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
439 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, south
central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and
southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Excessive rainfall from the remnants of Florence will impact the
area Sunday into Monday. Some areas could see flash flooding. River
flooding may occur as well by midweek.

Although winds are not expected to be that strong, a few gusts over
40 mph and saturated soils could lead to downed trees, with isolated
power outages. There could also be some isolated weak tornadoes
Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to monitor for flooding, downed trees and
power lines, along with possible tornadoes Sunday. Please email your
rainfall and severe weather reports to rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or pass
them along on our US National Weather Service Blacksburg VA Facebook
page.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ009-012>017-022-032-033-043-044-058-160845-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Smyth-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Roanoke-
Patrick-Franklin-Henry-Pittsylvania-Halifax-
439 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, south central Virginia, southwest
Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

East winds will start to pick up especially in the higher elevations
late today through tonight. A wind advisory may be needed for
portions of the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

In addition, although winds are not expected to be that strong, a
few gusts over 40 mph and saturated soils could lead to downed
trees, with isolated power outages Sunday. There could also be some
isolated weak tornadoes Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to monitor for flooding, downed trees and
power lines, along with possible tornadoes Sunday. Please email your
rainfall and severe weather reports to rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or pass
them along on our US National Weather Service Blacksburg VA Facebook
page.