Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
738 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure was centered over the southeastern United States
providing typical summer weather conditions with a daily threat
for mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms and near
seasonal temperatures. A weak cold front is approaching from the
northwest and will provide better coverage of showers, and
greater threat for organized storms, to the region as it
crosses the area Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 700 PM EDT Tuesday...

While a few remain robust across the area, the trend for showers
and thunderstorms that past hour or so has been a downward
trend. This is only expected to accelerate from sunset and
onward into the evening hours. Have updated the near term
forecast to reflect the current isolated to scattered coverage
at best across the area, with coverage waning quickly after
sunset and becoming confined to isolated coverage over
southeast West Virginia, nearest the approaching cold front.
Have also tweaked hourly temperature, dew point wind
speed/gust, and sky cover to reflect the latest conditions and
expected trends through the evening hours.

As of 305 PM EDT Tuesday...

For late this afternoon into early evening, instability have
increased per diurnal heating cycle and with little or no cap,
deep convection has formed over the mountains. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms a good bet into this evening with greatest
concentration along old outflow boundary that continues to sink
southeast from southeastern West Virginia this morning into
southwestern Virginia this afternoon. Aside for pulse storms
associated with the general heating of the day, there is a
chance for organization of storms to generate from this old
outflow boundary. This boundary favors robust deep convection
and yield strong to isolated severe storms WV/VA this afternoon
and evening. With PWATs in excess of 1.50, main threats would be
from torrential downpours and wet microbursts.

Showers will survive through the evening, living off residual
instabilities and outflow boundaries. Majority of the
convection, if not all, should dissipate around midnight. Debris
clouds from today's storms should limit dense fog from forming
overnight. Overnight lows will ranging from the mid to upper 60s
across the mountains to the low 70s east.

A weak cold front will approach the area tomorrow, but may not
enter the mountains until late in the day. If this is the case,
scattered thunderstorms will fire during the afternoon across
the mountains from heating and lingering outflow boundaries.
These prefrontal mountain showers may help stabilize the
environment before the front enters the area. Late in the day,
convection will start east of the Blue Ridge and in the vicinity
of a lee trough. Convection will likely become stronger across
the piedmont as the front jumps to this surface trough. With the
later arrival of the front tomorrow, more heating will help
destablize the atmosphere, therefore increasing the chances for
strong to severe storms across the area with the higher chance
for organize storms occuring east of the Blue Ridge. SPC
currently has the area in a marginal risk for storms producing
damaging winds. High temperature across the mountains will warm
into the 80s with low to mid 90s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 150 PM EDT Tuesday...

Enough upper support reaches southwest Virginia, northwest
North Carolina, and southeast West Virginia that thunderstorms
will be in full swing early Wednesday evening. Will be leaning
toward the timing and placement shown by the GFS for the showers
and thunderstorms on Thursday through Friday.

The surface front stalls across Tennessee and North Carolina
Thursday and Friday. This pushes the higher precipitable water
values into the Carolinas and Tennessee Valley. However, not
much change in temperatures behind the front.

Confidence was average for all elements.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 155 PM EDT Tuesday...

Models continued to advertise the same synoptic pattern over
the weekend as the past few runs, with an upper low closing off
over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. The Canadian showed little
movement of the upper low but the ECMWF and GFS have the low
lifting northeast and becoming an open wave by Tuesday. WPC
favors this more progressive solution.

This is a mild and wet pattern for the Mid Atlantic region with
deep southwest winds keeping moisture over the area, especially
Saturday and Sunday. A push of drier air works into the region
behind a front that comes through late Monday. Will keep
probability of precipitation behind the second front confined
to the western upslope area in the mountains.

Confidence was average for temperatures and below average for
timing of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Tuesday...

Shower and thunderstorm coverage will continue to decrease in
coverage as we head through the evening hours. There may be a
small resurgence across southeast West Virginia towards
daybreak Wednesday in advance of an approaching cold front. The
vast majority of the region will experience VFR conditions
during the valid TAF period concluding at 00Z Thursday/8PM
Wednesday. The exception will be some localized sub-VFR ceilings
across the mountains and some patchy fog late tonight into
early Wednesday morning. Also for those showers and storms that
still exist this evening, and those expected tomorrow in
association with a cold front, some of the heavier shower and
storm will generate some brief, localized sub-VFR
visibilities/ceilings under the stronger cores. Also variable
and gusty winds will be associated with these storms as well.

Extended...

Best coverage of storms for the Virginias will occur mid-week
(Wednesday) associated with an upper level trof and passage of
the surface cold front. Focus will then shift south into the
Carolinas Thursday into Friday as the front stalls across the
southern Appalachians.

There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast for the weekend.
Models are hinting at a cutoff low forming over the eastern
CONUS which suggests a wet pattern for the Mid-Atlantic and
greater potential for sub-VFR. Just not sure how much of an
impact this will have attm to Cigs/Vsbys.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...DS/RCS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/PM/RCS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
410 AM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

VAZ007-010>014-016>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-WVZ042>044-
507-508-080900-
Tazewell-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-
Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-
Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-
Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Western Greenbrier-
410 AM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, south
central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and
southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Some storms Wednesday afternoon and evening may produce locally
damaging wind, especially north of Route 460.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ009-015-080900-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Smyth-Grayson-
410 AM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
950 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0846 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ENE BOONVILLE         36.25N 80.65W
08/07/2018                   SURRY              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE BLOWN DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF GADBERRY
            ROAD AND ROCKFORD ROAD

&&

PW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
950 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

NCZ004-005-080215-
Stokes-Rockingham-
950 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
SOUTHEASTERN STOKES AND SOUTHERN ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES...

Until 1015 PM EDT.

At 950 PM EDT, radar indicated redeveloping strong thunderstorms
located along a line extending from Wentworth to near Danbury.
Movement was south at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Reidsville...
Wentworth...
Mayodan...
Madison...
and Walnut Cove.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3626 8023 3642 8026 3645 7968 3624 7958
TIME...MOT...LOC 0150Z 345DEG 19KT 3642 7976 3640 8017

Loconto

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
954 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0857 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 W EAST BEND           36.22N 80.60W
08/07/2018                   YADKIN             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE BLOWN DOWN ON VALLIE DAVIS DRIVE JUST OFF ROUTE
            67

&&

PW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1005 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0851 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ESE BOONVILLE         36.22N 80.66W
08/07/2018                   YADKIN             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE BLOWN DOWN ALONG ROCKFORD ROAD BETWEEN THE
            INTERSECTIONS OF ROUTE 67 AND NEBO ROAD

&&

PW

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