Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
846 PM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A wedge of high pressure east of the Appalachians will gradually
weaken tonight in advance of low pressure approaching from the
northwest. This system will cross the region Sunday before
spilling to the south by early next week. Scattered showers and
storms will accompany this system today before rainfall becomes
more widespread Sunday and through the first part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Saturday...

Convergence between easterly low level flow on the east side of
the mountains and westerly flow associated with approaching
upper level trough is resulting in scattered showers/storms
across the mountains this evening. Upper level winds are out of
the west, so this activity will drift east into the foothills
and piedmont before dissipating during the overnight.

Once the precipitation wanes after midnight, fog formation will
be possible, particularly in areas which receive rain. Low level
stratus is also possible late tonight and early Sunday.

Upper level closed low will continue to sink south toward the
gulf tomorrow, providing plenty of moisture ahead of the front
before it finally stalls out to the east of the region by the
end of the period. A short wave rotating around the upper level
low could get get showers and thunderstorms started earlier than
in a typical diurnal pattern which would reduce heating during
the day and also the severe threat. Shower and thunderstorm
coverage will peak during the afternoon into evening hours and
will be more widespread than on Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

Blocky pattern remains in place with an upper ridge over the
Atlantic and stacked closed low sinking south toward the Gulf
coast with a distinct wedge signature in place through the period.
This will gradually establish very deep moisture transport into
the region with a well developed conveyor of southeasterly low
level winds. This moisture will ride up over the top of the wedge
and generate a good amount of isentropic lift along and east of
the Appalachians. The end result will be persistent and
occasionally heavy rain developing over the region, especially
along and east of the Blue Ridge with some local enhancement
from orographic effects possible.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches by daybreak Wednesday appear
quite attainable. However, this wet period is arriving after a
couple of weeks of hot and relatively dry conditions, so soils will
be eager to absorb a good amount of water and this will help temper
runoff. Local hydro issues will be possible if rain rates become
excessive, but at this time larger scale flooding problems do not
look likely through Tuesday night.

Given the wedge and expected cloud cover high temperatures will
be running a bit below normal through the first part of next week,
though mins will be around normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

Once the closed low reaches the Gulf coast, it will open up and
become assimilated into the mean flow as another closed low moves
across southern Canada to near Hudson Bay by the end of next week.
However, the net result will keep us in a wet pattern as a stalled
frontal boundary develops over the Appalachians and central mid
Atlantic region on the periphery of high pressure over the Atlantic.
This is a more typical summertime pattern and will yield ample
amounts of instability with lower amounts of shear in southwesterly
low level flow. Expect daily rounds of thunderstorms with locally
heavy rain and a severe threat generally dependent on storms that
can organize into lines and/or clusters. Will have to see where
the heaviest rain occurs early in the week to get a handle on
where a flood threat may materialize later in the week.

Temperatures will warm steadily through the middle of next week
with highs by Friday in the upper 80s/near 90 east of the Blue
Ridge and in the low/mid 80s to the west.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Saturday...

An upper level trough over the Ohio Valley will result in
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorm the next several
days with greatest coverage during the afternoon and evening
hours. This will result in highly variable flight conditions. In
addition, shallow easterly low level winds may allow for the
formation of fog/stratus along the Blue Ridge late tonight and
early Sunday.

Extended Aviation:

Wet weather pattern is forecast for most of the upcoming week
with a nearly stationary upper level trough of low pressure
remaining over the eastern CONUS. As such, forecast will reflect
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, but mainly
during the afternoon hours coinciding with peak heating and
instability.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...JR/PM
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
312 PM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>034-043-044-WVZ042>044-
507-508-220900-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Henry-Pittsylvania-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
312 PM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, south central Virginia, southwest
Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms containing
damaging winds are possible Saturday afternoon and evening. Heavy
rainfall that could result in localized flooding may also occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Several periods of heavy rainfall may bring a threat for flooding by
the early to mid portion of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ035-045>047-058-059-220900-
Amherst-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
312 PM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia and south
central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Several periods of heavy rainfall may bring a threat for flooding by
the early to mid portion of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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