Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1023 AM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front passes through the region today bringing showers and
thunderstorms. Noticeably cooler and drier conditions behind
the front will be in place this weekend. Warmer and more humid
conditions return by mid-week along with isolated to scattered
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1000 AM EDT Friday...

Updated PoPs with the higher chance this morning across SE WV,
in the vicinity of the cold front. Removed PoPs in the east
through this morning as nothing has formed. Shower coverage will
increase this afternoon for the entire area as the cold front
slides across the area.

As of 500 AM EDT Friday...

After a prolonged period of hot and humid weather, some relief is on
the way. A cold front will sweep across the region today bringing a
decent chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms in it's wake.
Timing for the front entering into the forecast area will be
approximately 8AM/12Z, and should exit to the southeast at around
8PM/00Z. Isolated thunder will continue to be possible west of the
Blue Ridge this morning as the front comes through. The past several
HRRR runs continue to insist that coverage will become more
widespread, to include areas east of the Blue Ridge around 2PM and
lasting into the evening. During the night time hours, coverage will
gradually decrease in a north to south fashion across the CWA.

At peak heating, severe indices are modest at best, and overall
shear is pretty low. Can not at all rule out that some storms will
gain enough energy to become fairly strong, however any severe
potential appears to be low at this point. Given overall dry
conditions leading into the day, hydrological issue also appear
unlikely.

Winds at the start of the forecast period will be light and
generally from the south to southwest. After frontal passage, winds
will swing around to the northwest becoming more north going into
the nightime hours.  These post-frontal winds could become a bit
gusty, but nothing over the top.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 615 AM EDT Friday...

Cold front is expected to be moving slowly south through the
southern part of the CWA into NC/TN Saturday morning at the
beginning of the forecast period as the subtropical ridge drifts
back into the Midwest, albeit briefly. Lingering showers and a
few thunderstorms will remain possible near the front, perhaps
as far north as the VA/NC border. The front will continue to
move slowly south during the day and should be near the NC/SC
border by evening. Models are a bit slower in moving the front
and its associated precipitation south of our area today than
was indicated in previous model runs. So have decreased pops a
bit slower than previously advertised. During the afternoon and
evening, there is also the potential of return flow and
southeast upslope flow again the Blue Ridge of NW NC into far
southwest VA, that could further delay the exit of showers in
that portion. Thinking is that this will still be possible to a
lesser extent Sunday, but the potential for such should drift
further south and west into TN by Sun.

Dewpoints behind the front drop markedly and rather quickly into
the 50s. This dry air will spread south into the CWA Saturday
afternoon/evening and should reach the I-64 Corridor early
afternoon, then filter southward toward the NC border by Sunday
morning. As a result, mornings will be substantially cooler and
less humid than this past week has been. High temperatures
Saturday and Sunday are expected to be mostly in the 70s west to
80s east with lows in the 50s west and north to 60s east. 850mb
temperatures will drop as low as +14C over the weekend before
heading back to +20C+ early next week.

Monday should remain dry, but the strong upper high is poised to
return quickly and much quicker than thought just a couple of
days ago, spreading back over the Mid-Atlantic and Appalachians
as early as Monday. Fortunately, the remnant Canadian high will
keep temperatures in check yet on Monday, but do expect high
temperatures back close to 90 Piedmont and 80s west. Rain
chances should remain minimal, but isolated late day
showers/thunderstorms could return to the far western areas
where moisture returns around the departing surface high.
850mb temperatures will drop as low as +14C over the weekend
before heading back to +20C+ early next week.

/Forecast Confidence Levels/
Temperatures - Moderate to High,
Precipitation Chances - Moderate,
Thunderstorm Chances - Low to moderate,
Wind - Moderate.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 630 AM EDT Friday...

High pressure aloft is expected to spread back across the region
for the later half of the week. The forecast area will remain on
the eastern periphery of the strong upper high and the models
seem to vary quite a bit from run-to-run and model-to-model.
Latest trends have been to back off the advertised heat wave
during the later half of next week, but nonetheless still
showing 850mb temperatures climbing to around +20C to +21C and
lingering for several days. However, being on the eastern
periphery of this upper high there will be several potential
MCSs to keep an eye on tracking around the northern side of the
upper high. If the high remains further west, we may get in on
some of these. If it builds more directly over our region, then
these will likely track more into New England/NY/PA area.

REturn moisture up the west side of the Appalachians may
encroach on our SW VA and NW NC counties as the week progresses
as well, warranting at least low chance pops in that area for
diurnal thunderstorm activity.

Finally, there is a tropical low progged to develop off the
NC/SC coast early in the week. All models keep this system well
away from the U.S., but nonetheless the circulation around such
may impede or enhance convection across our region depending on
its strength, track, and its interaction with the upper high to
the west.

Temperatures will range from just above normal to perhaps much
above normal depending on the strength and eventual location of
the subtropical ridge.

/Forecast Confidence Levels/
Temperatures - Moderate,
Precipitation Chances - Low to Moderate,
Thunder Chances - Low to Moderate,
Wind - Low to Moderate.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 745 AM EDT Friday...

Showers and thunderstorms coverage will be isolated this morning
west of the Blue Ridge and remain so for several hours today. They
will become more widespread this afternoon as a cold front sweeps
across the region. The front should begin moving through the
forecast area around daybreak and exiting to the southeast by 00Z.
Confidence is moderate on the exact timing of thunderstorms in any
given location. Once the coverage becomes more widespread this
afternoon, it should remain that way going into the evening before
beginning to lessen in a north to south type fashion through the
end of the period.

Sky conditions will be VFR prior to the onset of any showers or
thunderstorms today. Most locations will see at least MVFR
conditions linger for a bit after any storm moves through but then
should return to VFR. The mountain locations may have a more
difficult time breaking out of sub-VFR conditions, BLF in particular.
Chances for fog may also drop conditions to sub-VFR in the mountain
valleys again tonight, however, confidence of this occurring is too
low to advertise in the TAFs at this point.

Winds will begin the forecast period from the south to southwest,
then shifting to the northwest behind the front. Winds will be light
through the forecast period with some gusts into the teens after the
front moves through. Gusty winds will also be possible in or near
thunderstorms.

Confidence is moderate on all elements.

Extended Aviation...

Over the weekend and into Tuesday, high pressure and drier air
work its way into the area. VFR conditions will prevail for most
of the region, most of this time. Late night/early morning will
be a daily issue.

Confidence in the extended forecast is above average.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
As of 750 PM EDT Thursday...

The NOAA weather radio transmitter in Hinton, West Virginia,
WXM72 broadcasting on a frequency of 162.425 MHz, remains off
the air. It will remain offline until sometime next week. Parts
are on order to repair the transmitter, and are expected early
next week. Therefore, the system may again be operation on/by
July 11th. We apologize for any inconvenience.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JR
NEAR TERM...JR/RCS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS/RAB
AVIATION...AMS/JR
EQUIPMENT...AMS/WERT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
724 AM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ015>017-032>035-043>047-058-059-071130-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-
Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
724 AM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany a cold front
moving south through the region later today and tonight. Locally
heavy rain could produced localized flooding.  One or two of these
storms could also become strong and produce strong wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

Hot temperatures and high humidity levels will combine in some areas
to renew the threat of high heat indicies and may require Heat
Advisories during the later half of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ007-009>014-018>020-022>024-WVZ042>044-507-508-071130-
Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Craig-
Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
724 AM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, west
central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

RAB

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
128 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

NCZ004-VAZ032-061830-
Stokes-Patrick-
128 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
NORTHWESTERN STOKES AND SOUTH CENTRAL PATRICK COUNTIES...

Until 230 PM EDT

At 128 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Collinstown,
moving south at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Francisco...
Collinstown...
and Vade Mecum.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3638 8045 3655 8044 3655 8045 3658 8045
      3663 8035 3647 8021 3640 8033
TIME...MOT...LOC 1728Z 343DEG 8KT 3654 8041

PC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
139 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

NCZ004-005-VAZ032-043-061815-
Stokes-Rockingham-Henry-Patrick-
139 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
NORTHEASTERN STOKES...NORTHWESTERN ROCKINGHAM...SOUTHWESTERN HENRY
AND SOUTHEASTERN PATRICK COUNTIES...

Until 215 PM EDT

At 138 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Critz, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Stoneville...
Sandy Ridge...
Spencer...
Penns Store...
and Critz.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3668 8027 3676 8013 3650 7980 3643 7995
      3650 8012
TIME...MOT...LOC 1738Z 328DEG 14KT 3663 8011

PC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
144 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

NCZ004-005-061845-
Stokes-Rockingham-
144 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
SOUTHEASTERN STOKES AND SOUTHWESTERN ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES...

Until 245 PM EDT

At 144 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Pine Hall,
moving south at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Madison...
Walnut Cove...
Pine Hall...
Ellisboro...
and Meadows.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3626 8020 3639 8021 3640 7998 3625 7991
TIME...MOT...LOC 1744Z 345DEG 12KT 3629 8009

PC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
149 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

NCZ019-061830-
Wilkes-
149 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
WILKES COUNTY...

Until 230 PM EDT

At 148 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Roaring River,
moving south at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
North Wilkesboro...
Wilkesboro...
Ronda...
Traphill...
and Boomer.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3628 8137 3629 8137 3638 8094 3633 8087
      3606 8088 3605 8125
TIME...MOT...LOC 1748Z 343DEG 12KT 3623 8104

PC