Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
255 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Deep tropical moisture lingering over the region will combine
with an upper level disturbance arriving from the west to bring
more showers and thunderstorms to the Appalachians and central
mid Atlantic region into this evening. A weak cold front pushes
toward the area Friday resulting in another round of showers and
thunderstorms into tomorrow evening. This unsettled weather
will then continue with a chance for showers and thunderstorms
through much of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Thursday...

Expected development of showers/thunderstorms with locally heavy
rain has materialized. Have not yet seen any large scale
clustering or training to warrant an expansion of the current
Flash Flood Watch so will continue the watch for three counties
of NC that have been excessively wet during the past couple of
days and anticipate hydro issues elsewhere will be localized in
nature. Severe threat continues to look marginal with the
upstream MCS expected to turn southward with the eastern flank
dissipating as it approaches our neck of the woods. The end
result will be generally rain free conditions overnight after
convection over the region exits the area to the east, though
the convective remnants will warrant chance/slight chance of
showers far west of the Blue Ridge.

A weak front will push through the region tomorrow with another
round of showers/thunderstorms. Shear and lapse rates are a bit
better but still looking like marginal conditions. Locally heavy
rain and associated flooding will once again be a threat as
precipitable water values remain elevated, but do not see enough
signals for any specific region to post a watch at this time.

Warm and muggy tonight with lows in the 60s, followed by hot and
humid tomorrow with highs in the lower 90s east of the Blue
Ridge, low/mid 80s to the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM EDT Thursday...

500MB low cuts off over the Ohio Valley on Saturday morning, drifts
southeast into Virginia by Saturday night, then weakens and moves
east on Sunday. Models bring short wave and low level convergence
across southwest Virginia, southeast West Virginia and northwest
North Carolina into early Saturday morning. Leading line of
thunderstorms will be exiting the piedmont Friday evening.

Expecting a break in the rain Saturday morning then thunderstorms
will redevelop in the afternoon. Less confident about the timing and
areal coverage on Saturday and Sunday. Enough cloud around each
morning to slow down heating and instability and NAM and GFS showed
another band of lift and deep moisture crossing the area from west
to east on Sunday.

Another couple nights with muggy dew points and mild temperatures.
High will remain slightly above normal and will depend on morning
cloud cover and location of afternoon rainfall. Models reasonable
with temperature forecast through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Thursday...

Overall long wave pattern will amplify with little change through
the period keeping upper ridging over the central and southern plains
and a deep trof over the northeast United States. Differences in the
models show up by Monday on the timing, intensity and location of
closed lows over the northeast. WPC approach of blend of ensemble
guidance not as cut off as the operational GFS and ECMWF but keeps
the mean trough axis over the Mid Atlantic region Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Cooler air will advance around the north and west side of the
surface low Monday night through Thursday behind a secondary cold
front. Surface high pressure will cover much of the eastern United
States on Thursday. Will be keeping Tuesday through Thursday cooler
and dry.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Thursday...

Flying conditions will generally be VFR outside of thunderstorms
into early this evening. Will use vicinity to cover convection
and amend for prevailing as necessary according to radar
trends. Storms will gradually diminish early tonight with some
stratus and fog developing toward daybreak, but confidence in
IFR is low given recent trends over the last couple of days.
IFR conditions at TAF sites will also be heavily influenced by
any precipitation directly affecting the airfield. Stronger front
approaches tomorrow with a renewed chance for showers and
thunderstorms toward latter portion of the valid period.

.Extended Aviation Discussion...

Wet pattern anticipated through at least Saturday as upper
trough remains situated over the east. Sub- VFR conditions are
likely thru most of the period espcly with afternoon showers and
fog at night, with small windows of VFR possible.

By Sunday the upper flow turns more to the northwest as trough
heads east, so will see some improvement in cigs, though will
still see scattered showers/storms around, and possibly some
late night/early morning fog. Should finally see improvement on
Monday as high pressure builds in resulting in more in the way
of widespread VFR to start next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 400 AM EDT Thursday...

Most showers have exited the region early this morning with just
some residual runoff leading to minor flooding issues in Watauga
county. Tropical moisture will remain in place today in advance
of an upper level disturbance that will track into the area
later in the day. Ahead of this feature, appears will see some
degree of convection taking shape along the Blue Ridge followed
by perhaps a stronger band crossing the mountains with the upper
feature later. However coverage and placement remains quite
uncertain pending heating early on, and whether or not more
linear training bands develop within rather weak west/southwest
unidirectional flow aloft. Models suggest could see multiple
bands that may initially be anchored along the Blue Ridge before
the main feature aloft arrives later and perhaps drives an axis
of deeper convection across our southern sections. Much of the
area, excluding isolated areas across the mountains, has missed
out on the more widespread heavy rain the last couple of days
with the wettest regions overall across parts of the NC
mountains espcly Watauga county. Thus have extended the flash
flood watch only for the NC mountains today but could see more
counties included later pending where deeper convection sets up.
Main concern again with locally high rainfall rates and any
training that develops over already saturated ground that could
quickly lead to flash flooding of smaller creeks, streams and
poor drainage areas across the region. Landslides within steep
terrain may also occur where the ground is the wettest.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ001-002-
     018.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/MBS/WP
HYDROLOGY...JH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
419 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018

NCZ001-002-018-010830-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-
419 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

In addition, isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon and evening with damaging winds the main
threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Tropical moisture will foster very rain efficient showers and
thunderstorms with the potential for small stream and poor drainage
flooding on Friday. Flash flooding could develop within sustained
and slow moving downpours.

In addition isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible
again Friday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-010830-
Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Wilkes-Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-
Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-
Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-
Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-
Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Western Greenbrier-
419 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms containing damaging winds
will be possible this afternoon and evening especially across the
mountains. Very heavy rainfall could also occur which may result in
localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Tropical moisture will foster very rain efficient showers and
thunderstorms with the potential for small stream and poor drainage
flooding on Friday. Flash flooding could develop within sustained
and slow moving downpours.

In addition, isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible Friday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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