Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
335 PM EDT Sat May 5 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled frontal boundary draped over the area will lift north
overnight as a low pressure system tracks into the Ohio Valley.
A weak cold front will pass over the region Sunday morning,
followed by another on Monday. A stronger front is possible on
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Saturday...

An upper level trough will drive a surface low northeastward
across central Tennessee and Kentucky this evening. This low
pressure system is expected to stay west of the Appalachians as
a weak insitu wedge hovers over the Mid Atlantic region.
Moisture from the low to the west will overrun the wedge in the
east, bringing rain to area north of HWY 460 with the heavier
rain occuring north of I64. This low will also help erode the
wedge overnight, which could give way for scattered storms
persisting into Sunday morning. Also this evening and as the
wedge erodes across the mountains and eventually in the east,
scattered storms are possible and could bring localize heavy
downpours as PWATS are running around an inch. Rainfall amounts
over the next 24 hours will range from 1-2 inches in
southeastern West Virginia and up to an inch in the mountains of
southwest Virginia. Across the piedmont and foothills counties
and NW North Carolina mountains, upwards to a half of an inch is
possible.

By rise Sunday, the surface low should be near Pittsburgh and
the trailing cold front tracks across West Virginia. The front
moves quickly crosses the area Sunday morning. Only light
rainfall is expected with the frontal passage as bulk of the
heavier rain and deeper moisture tracks north with the low. As
the front moves east Sunday, temperatures will be slightly
cooler than normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM EDT Saturday...

Easterly moving upper low fills and becomes part of long wave
high amplitude trough over the eastern United States by Monday.
Nearly closed 500 MB low develops over the Carolinas by Tuesday
morning.

Surface wedge develops for Monday and Tuesday with abundant
cloud cover. Clouds and precipitation will hold back daytime
temperature rise. Will trend toward cooler guidance for highs on
Monday and Tuesday. Have slightly increased probability of rain
on Monday and Tuesday. Best chance will be in the mountains and
foothills.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Saturday...

Upper low move northeast by Wednesday night with pattern
becoming more zonal but still with some weak troughing as short
waves track through the northern stream Thursday and Friday.

Large differences in the models after Thursday, especially in
western United States. 06Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF/CMC were completely
out of phase. WPC is leaning toward trough in the western
United States but not to the extent of the CMC/ECMWF.

Surface wedge breaks on Wednesday with increasing southwest
wind ahead of the low pressure system approaching from the Ohio
Valley. This low crosses the areas pushing a cold front through
the Mid Atlantic region on Thursday. At this time models
indicate enough forcing and instability for thunderstorms on
Thursday afternoon and evening. Will keep the forecast dry for
Friday and Saturday behind this system. Temperatures will be
near normal through the period with a warming trend at the end
of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 720 AM EDT Saturday...

Showers and a few thunderstorms have developed across the
mountains of SE WV and SW VA (BLF/LWB/BCB) early this afternoon.
These storms have the capability to drop conditions to IFR for
15-30 minutes, then back to VFR. Ceilings across the mountains
are ranging from 1500-3500 feet. These trends will continue into
this evening. For the east, stations (ROA/LYH/DAN) should not
see storms until tonight, but a stray light showers is possible
through the evening.

The threat for showers and low flight restriction continues
tonight as a cold front approaches the region. Areas not seeing
continuous showers will likely have LIFR-IFR fog into Sunday
morning. Conditions will slowly improve Sunday as the cold front
moves to the coast.

.Extended Aviation Discussion...

Another cold front could arrive on Monday to spark added
showers. By Tuesday, high pressure will build over the New
England, which will start a period of east winds ushering marine
air from the Atlantic Ocean that should provide lower ceilings
and visibilities espcly southern and southwest sections. Drier
air as winds turn more southerly and the weak wedge breaks down
should allow for improvement to VFR on Wednesday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...RCS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
437 AM EDT Sat May 5 2018

VAZ007-009>011-018>020-WVZ042>044-507-508-060845-
Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Mercer-Summers-
Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
437 AM EDT Sat May 5 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, west
central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday afternoon
into the evening. Locally heavy downpours are possible with these
showers and thunderstorms, which may cause localized minor flooding.
There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ012>017-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-060845-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Roanoke-
Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-
Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
437 AM EDT Sat May 5 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
313 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2018

VAZ007-WVZ042-051945-
Tazewell-Mercer-
313 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN TAZEWELL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MERCER COUNTIES...

Until 345 PM EDT

At 313 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Tiptop, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bluefield...
Pocahontas...
Bramwell...
Coaldale...
and Pinnacle Rock State Park.

LAT...LON 3732 8138 3732 8137 3733 8137 3735 8135
      3727 8120 3718 8139 3722 8143
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 218DEG 17KT 3721 8139

DS

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