Severe Thunderstorm Warning 179, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
234 PM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure off the Mid-atlantic coast will drift northeast through
Tuesday with a nearly stationary front across the eastern
Carolinas, keeping a chance for showers and thunderstorms over
the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region through
Tuesday. High pressure will then build in from the west with
generally fair weather for Wednesday, before a warm front brings
showers and thunderstorms back to the forecast on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Monday...

Convection is starting to pop early this afternoon as cool pool
associated with upper low is aiding in destabilization. Expect
some storms to be strong with a few producing large hail and
damaging winds mainly in Virginia along and east of I81 and
east of I77. Some storms will also have heavy downpours and may
produce some localized flooding, but the main threat for
excessive rainfall will reside further off to our northeast.

Convection will move east and taper off this evening, allowing
for fog and stratus to develop once again overnight. Do not have
enough confidence on areal coverage of fog outside of valley
locations to issue a dense fog advisory but expect some
visibilities below one mile by daybreak.

Any fog/stratus will burn off Tuesday morning and allow for
some self destructive sunshine. While the upper low will slowly
be pulling off to the northeast, it will still have enough
influence over the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region
to aid convective development Tuesday afternoon. Expect coverage
to be of the scattered/widely scattered variety and a bit less
vigorous than the past couple of days.

Lows tonight will be on the chilly side with low/mid 60s east
of the Blue Ridge and mid 50s/around 60 to the west, with cooler
readings in the valleys. Highs Tuesday will be near seasonal
norms with mid 80s in the east and mid 70s/around 80 to the
west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 445 AM EDT Monday...

The closed 576dm upper low that brought the rain and severe
thunderstorms to the area yesterday, will continue to drift
northeast away from the region Tuesday. However, it will remain
close enough to still have a notable influence on the weather
across our region as we remain under the periphery cyclonic
circulation and subject to any PVA spokes tracking through the
west/south side of the upper low. While it appears any organized
convection would remain to our north and east, there is still
good diurnal potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms,
especially across the mountains in association with the added
impetus of differiental diurnal heating. There will be a notable
diurnal swing to the precipitation chances, peaking in the mid
to late afternoon and basically diminishing to near zero at
night.

This upper low will continue to drift further away from the CWA
Wed-Thu in advance of a more progressive trough drifting
eastward from the Midwest. In between, a short wave ridge will
drift across the Mid-Atlantic. This will allow for a minimum in
diurnal convection, but given the continued moist/warm/unstable
air mass, would still expect widely scattered to scattered
diurnally driven convection. Have gone above MOS guidance pops,
as both MET and MAV MOS seem low given the available moisture
and overall cyclonic flow, at least through much of Wed.

Little change expected in temperatures through the period as the
warm humid air mass remains across the area. Dewpoints, which
dropped a tad across northern/western areas Monday, will creep
back up toward 70 by Wednesday. Lows in the lower to mid 60s
Mon-Tue will drift back toward the 65-70 range by midweek. High
temperatures will remain near to just slightly below normals in
the 80-85 range most areas, except 70s mountains.

/Forecast Confidence Levels/
Temperatures - High
Precipitation Chances - Moderate,
Winds - Moderate,
Thunderstorm Threat - Moderate.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 500 AM EDT Monday...

Yet another upper trough will drift into the region from the
Midwest/Ohio Valley by Friday. Deep moisture is expected to
return with PWATS creeping back into the 1.5 to 2.0 range once
again. This trough will move very slowly through the region over
the weekend as yet another upper trough lifts out of the
southern/central plains early next week. The tropical air mass
resident over the southern plains at this time will eventually
lift northeast into the eastern half of the U.S. by the weekend
in association with the trough. This very moist air mass will
be back in our region by Thu/Fri and as a result could renew the
threat of flooding rainfall with expected showers and
thunderstorms into the weekend. A brief short wave ridge will be
wedged between the two late week and weekend troughs, so a
minimum of convection Sunday may be possible, with convection
briefly more widely scattered.

No appreciable change in air mass, other than the noted
humidity and moisture levels changes, will result in little to
no change in day-to-day temperatures. Look for highs in the 80s
east to the mid and upper 70s western mountains. Overnight lows
will remain above normal in the mid 60s west to the lower 70s
east.

/Forecast Confidence Levels/
Temperatures - Moderate to High,
Precipitation Chances - Moderate,
Winds - Moderate,
Thunderstorm Threat - Moderate to High.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Monday...

Cool pool aloft will aid in destabilization and yield scattered
thunderstorms across the region into this evening. Will go with
VCTS all sites and use short term amendments when storms become
imminent at an airfield.

After convection tapers off this evening, expect a brief period
of VFR before fog/stratus develop in a manner similar to last
night. This should yield IFR/LIFR conditions due to cig and/or
vis at all TAF sites late tonight before burning off Tuesday
morning. VFR conditions are then expected for the latter portion
of the valid period before widely scattered showers/storms
develop later Tuesday afternoon.

Winds will generally be light, with higher gusts near
thunderstorms.

Extended Discussion...

Model solutions are fair agreement that cut off upper level low
will move northeast through Wednesday. This will bring drier
weather and a better chance of VFR conditions into midweek. The
next cold front and chance of widespread showers and
thunderstorms with the associated MVFR conditions arrives on
Friday.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
As of 215 PM EDT Monday...

Still awaiting parts delivery to begin repair of the KFCX WSR-
88D power supply.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB/SK
AVIATION...MBS/AMS
EQUIPMENT...MBS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
245 PM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>013-015-016-019-020-WVZ042>044-507-508-
140900-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Grayson-Carroll-
Alleghany VA-Bath-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Western Greenbrier-
245 PM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia
and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Dense fog will develop toward daybreak with visibility below one
mile at times.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ014-017-018-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-140900-
Montgomery-Floyd-Craig-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-
Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-
Halifax-Charlotte-
245 PM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, south
central Virginia, southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A few thunderstorms may become severe this afternoon into this
evening with large hail and damaging winds.

Dense fog will develop toward daybreak with visibility below one
mile at times.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
318 PM EDT MON AUG 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HAIL             3 E WARM SPRINGS        38.05N 79.72W
08/13/2018  E0.25 INCH       BATH               VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE AMOUNTS OF HAIL ON THE EAST SIDE OF WARM SPRINGS
            MOUNTAIN. REPORTED THERE WAS ENOUGH TO MAKE DRIVING
            CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS.

&&

JRUCKMAN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
322 PM EDT MON AUG 13 2018

NCZ004-005-131945-
Stokes-Rockingham-
322 PM EDT MON AUG 13 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN STOKES AND WESTERN
ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES...

Until 345 PM EDT.

At 322 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Ayersville,
moving south at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mayodan...
Madison...
Walnut Cove...
Stoneville...
and Sandy Ridge.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3654 8012 3654 7989 3626 7986 3627 8026
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 001DEG 23KT 3647 8004

KK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
333 PM EDT MON AUG 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0313 PM     HAIL             5 NE HOT SPRINGS        38.04N 79.77W
08/13/2018  E1.00 INCH       BATH               VA   PUBLIC

            HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE ACCUMULATED ON ROUTE 39 AND
            CREATED HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. A TREE WAS ALSO
            BROUGHT DOWN BY THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

&&

MBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
335 PM EDT MON AUG 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             3 E WARM SPRINGS        38.05N 79.73W
08/13/2018  E1.00 INCH       BATH               VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL ON THE EAST SIDE OF WARM
            SPRINGS MOUNTAIN ALONG ROUTE 39. REPORTED THERE WAS
            ENOUGH TO MAKE DRIVING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS.

&&

JRUCKMAN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
337 PM EDT MON AUG 13 2018

VAZ033-043-132000-
Henry-Franklin-
337 PM EDT MON AUG 13 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN HENRY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

Until 400 PM EDT.

At 337 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Rocky Mount,
moving south at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rocky Mount...
Bassett...
Sydnorsville...
Ferrum...
and Stanleytown.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3675 8008 3679 8007 3679 8004 3682 8006
      3704 8001 3704 7978 3674 7974
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 001DEG 23KT 3697 7990

KK