Alert archive / North Carolina / River Flood Warnings in 2018

River Flood Warning 73, NWS Blacksburg, VA

December 28, 2018Caswell County, Rockingham County, North Carolina; Pittsylvania County, City of Danville, Virginia

NWS Blacksburg, VA issued this river flood warning at Dec 28, 2018, 10:48 AM EST for Caswell County, Rockingham County, North Carolina; Pittsylvania County, City of Danville, Virginia. It took effect at Dec 28, 2018, 9:47 PM EST. It was in force for 41 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Dec 28, 2018, 10:48 AM EST (15:48 UTC)
In effect from: Dec 28, 2018, 9:47 PM EST
Expired: Dec 30, 2018, 2:38 PM EST
In force: 41 hr
Issued by: NWS Blacksburg, VA
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: Minor

Counties Caswell County, NC, Rockingham County, NC, City of Danville, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA

The radar

The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 88 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Dan River at STP near Danville (DVLV2). The gauge peaked at 19.60 ft at Dec 29, 2018, 4:00 PM EST.

Action stage: 18 ft
Minor stage: 21 ft
Moderate stage: 26 ft
Major stage: 32 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 02075045, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

567 
WGUS41 KRNK 281548
FLWRNK
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA  
1048 AM EST Fri Dec 28 2018

...The National Weather Service Blacksburg Va has issued
a Flood Warning for the following rivers in Virginia...North 
Carolina...

  Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph affecting Charlotte and 
  Halifax Counties
  Dan River near Danville affecting Caswell...Rockingham...City of 
  Danville and Pittsylvania Counties
  Dan River at Paces affecting Halifax County


 ...Rises have occurred on the Dan at Danville and at Paces, and on the 
 Roanoke River near Randolph. An additional inch to inch and a quarter of 
 rainfall is forecast across the Dan and lower reaches of the Roanoke basins. 
 This combined with excess upstream runoff will lead to continued rises 
 to minor flood stage levels along the Dan River at Danville and Paces, 
 and on the Roanoke River at Randolph. Flood warnings are now posted.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

Listen to noaa weather radio or your favorite media outlet for later 
statements or warnings.

&&

VAC037-083-290347-
/O.NEW.KRNK.FL.W.0072.181230T0300Z-190101T0936Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.181230T0300Z.181230T1800Z.181231T2136Z.NO/
1048 AM EST Fri Dec 28 2018

The National Weather Service in Blacksburg Va has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  the Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph
* from Saturday evening until late Monday night
* At 09AM Friday the stage was 17.1 feet.
* Flood Stage is 24.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 

* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Saturday evening and continue to
  rise to near 25.6 feet by early afternoon Sunday. The river will 
  fall below flood stage by Monday early afternoon.
* Impact...at 25.0 feet...Water is several feet deep on portions of 
  river road and black walnut road.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 26.1 
  feet on Dec 17 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
          3680 7863 3680 7870        

$$

NCC033-157-VAC143-590-290347-
/O.NEW.KRNK.FL.W.0073.181229T0826Z-181230T1938Z/
/DVLV2.1.ER.181229T0826Z.181229T1800Z.181230T0738Z.UU/
1048 AM EST Fri Dec 28 2018

The National Weather Service in Blacksburg Va has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  the Dan River near Danville
* from late tonight until Sunday afternoon
* At 09AM Friday the stage was 9.6 feet.
* Flood Stage is 17.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 

* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by early tomorrow and continue to
  rise to near 19.2 feet by tomorrow early afternoon.The river will 
  fall below flood stage by early Sunday morning.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 19.7 
  feet on Aug 2 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3646 7974 3650 7976 3664 7941 3663 7920
          3648 7923 3650 7949         

$$

VAC083-290347-
/O.NEW.KRNK.FL.W.0074.181229T1604Z-181231T1737Z/
/PCEV2.1.ER.181229T1604Z.181230T0600Z.181231T0537Z.NO/
1048 AM EST Fri Dec 28 2018

The National Weather Service in Blacksburg Va has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  the Dan River at Paces
* from Saturday morning until Monday afternoon
* At 09AM Friday the stage was 11.7 feet.
* Flood Stage is 20.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 

* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by tomorrow late morning and 
  continue to rise to near 22.8 feet by early Sunday morning.The 
  river will fall below flood stage by early Monday morning.
* Impact...at 24.0 feet...Low spots along routes 658 and 671 begin 
  to flood.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 23.3 
  feet on Dec 17 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 7923 3663 7920 3672 7902 3660 7898
          3656 7911                   

$$

8 follow-up statements

227 
WGUS81 KRNK 282011
FLSRNK

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
311 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2018

VAC019-067-089-690-290015-
/O.NEW.KRNK.FA.Y.0280.181228T2011Z-181229T0015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
City of Martinsville VA-Bedford VA-Henry VA-Franklin VA-
311 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2018

The National Weather Service in BLACKSBURG has issued a

* Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
  The City of Martinsville in south central Virginia...
  Bedford County in south central Virginia...
  Henry County in south central Virginia...
  Franklin County in west central Virginia...

* Until 715 PM EST

* At 308 PM EST, Doppler radar indicated continuing areas of 
  moderate rainfall. Runoff from this rain will cause small stream 
  flooding in the advisory area. Several roads are reported to be 
  closed due to flooding. 

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Martinsville...
  Bedford...
  Rocky Mount...
  Boones Mill...
  and Stewartsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding,
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather Service
by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and
pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3655 8003 3679 8008 3680 8004 3685 8008
      3686 8016 3689 8021 3721 7984 3733 7981
      3742 7973 3746 7954 3736 7926 3704 7949
      3703 7962 3655 7971

$$

PC

332 
WGUS81 KRNK 290127
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
827 PM EST Fri Dec 28 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...North Carolina...
 
  Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph affecting Charlotte and Halifax
  Counties 
  Dan River Near Wentworth affecting Rockingham County 
  Dan River near Danville affecting Caswell...Rockingham...City of 
  Danville and Pittsylvania Counties 
  Dan River at Paces affecting Halifax County 
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County 

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...North Carolina..
  Roanoke (Staunton) River At Brookneal affecting Campbell...
  Charlotte and Halifax Counties 
  Yadkin River At Elkin affecting Surry and Yadkin Counties 

Runoff from heavy rainfall on Friday continues to flow into mainstem
rivers. This will bring portions of the Yadkin river to flood stage
tonight, followed by portions of the Roanoke and Dan rivers on Saturday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.

The next scheduled statement will be issued later tonight or Saturday
morning.

&&

VAC031-037-083-290926-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0077.181230T0000Z-181230T1200Z/
/BROV2.1.ER.181230T0000Z.181230T0000Z.181230T0000Z.NO/
827 PM EST Fri Dec 28 2018

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke (Staunton) River At Brookneal.
* from tomorrow evening until Sunday morning
* at 07PM Friday the stage was 18.4 feet.

* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Forecast to equal or exceed flood stage of 23.0 feet by tomorrow
  evening. The river will fall below flood stage early tomorrow night.
* Impact...at 23.0 feet...Low-lying fields and woods are flooded.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 23.3 
  feet on Nov 16 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 7911 3711 7908 3703 7882 3695 7885
                                      

$$

VAC037-083-290926-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0072.181229T1942Z-190101T0843Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.181229T1942Z.181230T1800Z.181231T2043Z.NO/
827 PM EST Fri Dec 28 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph.
* from tomorrow early afternoon until late Monday night
* at 07PM Friday the stage was 19.6 feet.

* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow early afternoon and 
  continue to rise to near 25.8 feet by Sunday early afternoon. The 
  river will fall below flood stage by Monday afternoon.
* Impact...at 25.0 feet...Water is several feet deep on portions of 
  river road and black walnut road.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 26.1 
  feet on Dec 17 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
          3680 7863 3680 7870        

$$

NCC157-290926-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0076.181229T1400Z-181230T0042Z/
/WENN7.1.ER.181229T1400Z.181229T1800Z.181229T1842Z.NO/
827 PM EST Fri Dec 28 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River Near Wentworth.
* from tomorrow late morning until Saturday evening
* at 07PM Friday the stage was 15.7 feet.

* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow late morning and 
  continue to rise to near 19.2 feet by tomorrow early afternoon. The
  river will fall below flood stage by tomorrow early afternoon.
* Impact...at 19.0 feet...Minor flood stage. Flooding of lowlands 
  and one or two roads. 
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 18.1 
  feet on Nov 13 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3637 7995 3641 7995 3650 7976 3646 7974
          3641 7978 3637 7987         

$$

NCC033-157-VAC143-590-290926-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0073.181229T0247Z-181231T1000Z/
/DVLV2.1.ER.181229T0247Z.181229T1800Z.181230T2200Z.UU/
827 PM EST Fri Dec 28 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River near Danville.
* from tonight until late Sunday night
* at 08PM Friday the stage was 16.1 feet.

* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tonight and continue to rise 
  to near 20.3 feet by tomorrow early afternoon. The river will fall 
  below flood stage by Sunday afternoon.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 20.6 
  feet on Dec 16 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3646 7974 3650 7976 3664 7941 3663 7920
          3648 7923 3650 7949         

$$

VAC083-290926-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0074.181229T1126Z-190101T0611Z/
/PCEV2.1.ER.181229T1126Z.181230T1200Z.181231T1811Z.NO/
827 PM EST Fri Dec 28 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at Paces.
* from tomorrow morning until late Monday night
* at 07PM Friday the stage was 14.6 feet.

* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow morning and continue
  to rise to near 23.9 feet by Sunday morning. The river will fall 
  below flood stage by Monday early afternoon.
* Impact...at 24.0 feet...Low spots along routes 658 and 671 begin 
  to flood.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 23.3 
  feet on Dec 17 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 7923 3663 7920 3672 7902 3660 7898
          3656 7911                   

$$

VAC083-290926-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0071.181229T0112Z-190101T2300Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.181229T0012Z.181231T0000Z.190101T1100Z.NO/
827 PM EST Fri Dec 28 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* from this evening until Tuesday evening
* at 07PM Friday the stage was 19.0 feet.

* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by this evening and continue to 
  rise to near 24.9 feet by Sunday evening. The river will fall below
  flood stage by Tuesday morning.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 25.1 
  feet on Dec 17 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$

NCC171-197-290926-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0075.000000T0000Z-181229T1841Z/
/ELKN7.1.ER.181228T1935Z.181228T2230Z.181229T0641Z.NO/
827 PM EST Fri Dec 28 2018

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Yadkin River At Elkin.
* until Saturday afternoon. 
* at 07PM Friday the stage was 19.1 feet.

* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by after 
  midnight tomorrow.
* Impact...at 18.5 feet...Rockford Road near Rockford floods.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 19.6 
  feet on Apr 24 2017.

&&

LAT...LON 3617 8099 3624 8105 3632 8075 3631 8045
          3622 8045 3622 8073         

$$

958 
WGUS81 KRNK 290552
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
1252 AM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers
in North Carolina...
 
  Yadkin River At Elkin affecting Surry and Yadkin Counties
 
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...North Carolina..
  Roanoke (Staunton) River At Brookneal affecting Campbell...
  Charlotte and Halifax Counties 
  Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph affecting Charlotte and 
  Halifax Counties 
  Dan River Near Wentworth affecting Rockingham County 
  Dan River near Danville affecting Caswell...Rockingham...City of 
  Danville and Pittsylvania Counties 
  Dan River at Paces affecting Halifax County 
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County 

Runoff from heavy rainfall on Friday continues to flow into mainstem
rivers. This will bring portions of the Roanoke and Dan rivers on Saturday.

 
 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.

 
 
The next scheduled statement will be issued by 11 AM Saturday.

&&

VAC031-037-083-291351-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0077.181230T0000Z-181230T1200Z/
/BROV2.1.ER.181230T0000Z.181230T0000Z.181230T0000Z.NO/
1252 AM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke (Staunton) River At Brookneal.
* from this evening until Sunday morning
* at 11PM Friday the stage was 21.4 feet.

* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by this evening and continue to 
  rise to near 23.0 feet by late this evening. The river will fall below 
  flood stage Saturday night.
* Impact...at 23.0 feet...Low-lying fields and woods are flooded.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 23.3 
  feet on Nov 16 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 7911 3711 7908 3703 7882 3695 7885
                                      

$$

VAC037-083-291351-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0072.181229T1942Z-190101T0843Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.181229T1942Z.181230T1800Z.181231T2043Z.NO/
1252 AM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph.
* from this afternoon until late Monday night
* at 11PM Friday the stage was 20.8 feet.

* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue 
  to rise to near 25.8 feet Saturday night. The river 
  will fall below flood stage by Monday afternoon.
* Impact...at 25.0 feet...Water is several feet deep on portions of 
  river road and black walnut road.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 26.1 
  feet on Dec 17 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
          3680 7863 3680 7870        

$$

NCC157-291351-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0076.181229T1400Z-181230T0042Z/
/WENN7.1.ER.181229T1400Z.181229T1800Z.181229T1842Z.NO/
1252 AM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River Near Wentworth.
* from late this morning until this evening
* at 11PM Friday the stage was 18.1 feet.

* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by late this morning and 
  continue to rise to near 19.2 feet by this afternoon. The river 
  will fall below flood stage this afternoon.
* Impact...at 19.0 feet...Minor flood stage. Flooding of lowlands 
  and one or two roads. 
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 18.1 
  feet on Nov 13 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3637 7995 3641 7995 3650 7976 3646 7974
          3641 7978 3637 7987         

$$

NCC033-157-VAC143-590-291351-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0073.000000T0000Z-181231T1000Z/
/DVLV2.1.ER.181229T0215Z.181229T1800Z.181230T2200Z.UU/
1252 AM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River near Danville.
* until late Sunday night. 
* at 12AM Saturday the stage was 18.2 feet.

* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 20.3 feet by this afternoon.
  The river will fall below flood stage tomorrow afternoon.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 20.6 
  feet on Dec 16 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3646 7974 3650 7976 3664 7941 3663 7920
          3648 7923 3650 7949         

$$

VAC083-291351-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0074.181229T1126Z-190101T0611Z/
/PCEV2.1.ER.181229T1126Z.181230T1200Z.181231T1811Z.NO/
1252 AM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at Paces.
* from this morning until late Monday night
* at 11PM Friday the stage was 16.3 feet.

* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by this morning and continue to 
  rise to near 23.9 feet by tomorrow morning. The river will fall 
  below flood stage by Monday early afternoon.
* Impact...at 24.0 feet...Low spots along routes 658 and 671 begin 
  to flood.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 23.3 
  feet on Dec 17 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 7923 3663 7920 3672 7902 3660 7898
          3656 7911                   

$$

VAC083-291351-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0071.000000T0000Z-190101T2300Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.181229T0008Z.181231T0000Z.190101T1100Z.NO/
1252 AM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* until Tuesday evening. 
* at 12AM Saturday the stage was 20.5 feet.

* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 24.9 feet by tomorrow 
  evening. The river will fall below flood stage Tuesday morning.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 25.1 
  feet on Dec 17 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$

NCC171-197-290622-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FL.W.0075.000000T0000Z-181229T1841Z/
/ELKN7.1.ER.181228T1935Z.181228T2230Z.181229T0442Z.NO/
1252 AM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

the Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Yadkin River At Elkin.
* until this afternoon. 
* at 12AM Saturday the stage was 17.5 feet and falling.

* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Impact...at 18.0 feet...Flooding of the parking lot at Crater Park
  begins.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 17.7 
  feet on Sep 17 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3617 8099 3624 8105 3632 8075 3631 8045
          3622 8045 3622 8073         

$$

236 
WGUS81 KRNK 291053
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
553 AM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...Virginia...
 
  Dan River Near Wentworth affecting Rockingham County 
  Dan River at Paces affecting Halifax County 

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...North Carolina..
  Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph affecting Charlotte and 
  Halifax Counties 
  Dan River near Danville affecting Caswell...Rockingham...City of 
  Danville and Pittsylvania Counties 
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County 

Runoff from heavy rainfall on Friday continues to flow into mainstem
rivers. This will bring portions of the Roanoke and Dan rivers on Saturday.
 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.

 
 
The next scheduled statement will be issued by 11 AM Saturday.

&&

VAC037-083-291853-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0072.181229T1942Z-190101T0843Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.181229T1942Z.181230T1800Z.181231T2043Z.NO/
553 AM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph.
* from this afternoon until late Monday night
* at 04AM Saturday the stage was 22.1 feet.

* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue 
  to rise to near 25.8 feet by tomorrow early afternoon. The river 
  will fall below flood stage by Monday afternoon.
* Impact...at 25.0 feet...Water is several feet deep on portions of 
  river road and black walnut road.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 26.1 
  feet on Dec 17 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
          3680 7863 3680 7870        

$$

NCC157-291853-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0076.181229T1049Z-181230T0200Z/
/WENN7.1.ER.181229T0803Z.181229T1800Z.181229T2000Z.NO/
553 AM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River Near Wentworth.
* until this evening. 
* at 05AM Saturday the stage was 19.4 feet.

* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 19.7 feet by this afternoon.
  The river will fall below flood stage late this afternoon.
* Impact...at 19.5 feet...Dan Valley Road and River Road in Madison 
  are closed by floodwaters.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 20.0 
  feet on Dec 25 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 3637 7995 3641 7995 3650 7976 3646 7974
          3641 7978 3637 7987         

$$

NCC033-157-VAC143-590-291853-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0073.000000T0000Z-181231T1000Z/
/DVLV2.1.ER.181229T0215Z.181229T1800Z.181230T2200Z.UU/
553 AM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River near Danville.
* until late Sunday night. 
* at 05AM Saturday the stage was 19.0 feet.

* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 20.3 feet by this afternoon.
  The river will fall below flood stage tomorrow afternoon.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 20.6 
  feet on Dec 16 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3646 7974 3650 7976 3664 7941 3663 7920
          3648 7923 3650 7949         

$$

VAC083-291853-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0074.181229T1143Z-190101T0611Z/
/PCEV2.1.ER.181229T1143Z.181230T1200Z.181231T1811Z.NO/
553 AM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at Paces.
* from this morning until late Monday night
* at 04AM Saturday the stage was 17.8 feet.

* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage this morning and continue to 
  rise to near 23.9 feet by tomorrow morning. The river will fall 
  below flood stage by Monday early afternoon.
* Impact...at 24.0 feet...Low spots along routes 658 and 671 begin 
  to flood.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 23.3 
  feet on Dec 17 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 7923 3663 7920 3672 7902 3660 7898
          3656 7911                   

$$

VAC083-291853-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0071.000000T0000Z-190101T2300Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.181229T0008Z.181231T0000Z.190101T1100Z.NO/
553 AM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* until Tuesday evening. 
* at 05AM Saturday the stage was 21.5 feet.

* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 24.9 feet by tomorrow 
  evening. The river will fall below flood stage Tuesday morning.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 25.1 
  feet on Dec 17 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$

597 
WGUS81 KRNK 291519
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
1019 AM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...North Carolina...
 
  Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph affecting Charlotte and Halifax
  Counties 
  Dan River Near Wentworth affecting Rockingham County 
  Dan River near Danville affecting Caswell...Rockingham...City of 
  Danville and Pittsylvania Counties 
  Dan River at Paces affecting Halifax County 
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County 

Flooding continues along the lower sections of the Roanoke (Staunton) River
and along the lower Dan River. The Dan is near crest at Wentworth now and
will crest at Danville by this evening. The flooding is expected to remain 
in the minor category.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.

The next scheduled statement will be issued by this evening.

&&

VAC037-083-292318-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0072.181229T1800Z-181231T0325Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.181229T1800Z.181230T0600Z.181230T1525Z.NO/
1019 AM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph.
* from this afternoon until Sunday evening
* at 09AM Saturday the stage was 23.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue 
  to rise to near 24.8 feet by after midnight tomorrow. The river 
  will fall below flood stage by tomorrow late morning.
* Impact...at 25.0 feet...Water is several feet deep on portions of 
  River Road and Black Walnut road.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 25.6 
  feet on Nov 17 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
          3680 7863 3680 7870        

$$

NCC157-292318-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0076.000000T0000Z-181230T0230Z/
/WENN7.1.ER.181229T0803Z.181229T1345Z.181229T2030Z.NO/
1019 AM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River Near Wentworth.
* until this evening. 
* at 09AM Saturday the stage was 19.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river is past crest now and will fall below
  flood stage late this afternoon.
* Impact...at 19.5 feet...Dan Valley Road and River Road in Madison 
  are closed by floodwaters.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 20.0 
  feet on Dec 25 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 3637 7995 3641 7995 3650 7976 3646 7974
          3641 7978 3637 7987         

$$

NCC033-157-VAC143-590-292318-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0073.000000T0000Z-181231T0723Z/
/DVLV2.1.ER.181229T0215Z.181230T0000Z.181230T1923Z.UU/
1019 AM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River near Danville.
* until late Sunday night. 
* at 10AM Saturday the stage was 19.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* The river will crest near 19.8 feet by this evening
  and fall below flood stage tomorrow early afternoon.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 20.6 
  feet on Dec 16 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3646 7974 3650 7976 3664 7941 3663 7920
          3648 7923 3650 7949         

$$

VAC083-292318-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0074.000000T0000Z-190101T0046Z/
/PCEV2.1.ER.181229T1500Z.181230T1800Z.181231T1246Z.NO/
1019 AM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at Paces.
* from late this morning until Monday evening
* at 09AM Saturday the stage was 19.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by late this morning and 
  continue to rise to a crst near 23.3 feet by tomorrow early afternoon.
  The river will fall below flood stage by Monday morning.
* Impact...at 24.0 feet...Low spots along routes 658 and 671 begin 
  to flood.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 23.3 
  feet on Dec 17 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 7923 3663 7920 3672 7902 3660 7898
          3656 7911                   

$$

VAC083-292318-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0071.000000T0000Z-190101T1725Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.181229T0008Z.181231T0000Z.190101T0525Z.NO/
1019 AM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* until Tuesday afternoon. 
* at 09AM Saturday the stage was 22.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to a crest near 24.6 feet by tomorrow 
  evening. The river will fall below flood stage early Tuesday 
  morning.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 25.1 
  feet on Dec 17 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$

pc

408 
WGUS81 KRNK 292331
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
631 PM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...Virginia...
 
  Dan River near Danville affecting Caswell...Rockingham...City of 
  Danville and Pittsylvania Counties 
  Dan River at Paces affecting Halifax County 
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County 

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Virginia..
  Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph affecting Charlotte and 
  Halifax Counties 


 ...The Dan River at Danville is nearing its expected crest. Otherwise,
 gradual/slow rises are still occurring at Paces, South Boston and on 
 the Roanoke River at Randolph. Crests are expected to occur Sunday for 
 these forecast points currently in flood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.

 
 
The next scheduled statement will be issued Sunday morning.

&&

VAC037-083-300732-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0072.000000T0000Z-181231T0325Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.181229T2152Z.181230T0600Z.181230T1525Z.NO/
631 PM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph.
* until Sunday evening. 
* at 05PM Saturday the stage was 24.0 feet.

* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 24.8 feet by after midnight 
  tomorrow. The river will fall below flood stage tomorrow late 
  morning.
* Impact...at 25.0 feet...Water is several feet deep on portions of 
  river road and black walnut road.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 25.6 
  feet on Nov 17 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
          3680 7863 3680 7870        

$$

NCC033-157-VAC143-590-300732-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0073.000000T0000Z-181231T0520Z/
/DVLV2.1.ER.181229T0215Z.181230T0000Z.181230T1720Z.UU/
631 PM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River near Danville.
* until late Sunday night. 
* at 06PM Saturday the stage was 19.6 feet.

* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 19.7 feet by this evening. 
  The river will fall below flood stage tomorrow early afternoon.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 20.6 
  feet on Dec 16 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3646 7974 3650 7976 3664 7941 3663 7920
          3648 7923 3650 7949         

$$

VAC083-300732-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0074.000000T0000Z-181231T2155Z/
/PCEV2.1.ER.181229T1520Z.181230T1800Z.181231T0955Z.NO/
631 PM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at Paces.
* until Monday afternoon. 
* at 05PM Saturday the stage was 21.0 feet.

* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 22.9 feet by tomorrow early 
  afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage Monday morning.
* Impact...at 24.0 feet...Low spots along routes 658 and 671 begin 
  to flood.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 23.3 
  feet on Dec 17 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 7923 3663 7920 3672 7902 3660 7898
          3656 7911                   

$$

VAC083-300732-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0071.000000T0000Z-190101T1527Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.181229T0008Z.181231T0000Z.190101T0327Z.NO/
631 PM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* until Tuesday morning. 
* at 06PM Saturday the stage was 22.8 feet.

* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 24.5 feet by tomorrow 
  evening. The river will fall below flood stage Monday before 
  midnight.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 25.1 
  feet on Dec 17 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$

Loconto

066 
WGUS81 KRNK 300113
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
813 PM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...North Carolina...
 
  Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph affecting Charlotte and Halifax
  Counties 
  Dan River near Danville affecting Caswell...Rockingham...City of 
  Danville and Pittsylvania Counties 
  Dan River at Paces affecting Halifax County 
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County 


 ...Update to refresh with current forecasts. Minor flood stage continues 
 at all active river Flood Warning points. River level on the Dan River at
 Danville has crested, while gradual rises continue at Paces and South Boston,
 as well as on the Roanoke River at Randolph. Crests are expected Sunday for 
 these latter three forecast points, with falling trends anticipated thereafter.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.

 
 
The next scheduled statement will be issued Sunday morning.

&&

VAC037-083-300913-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0072.000000T0000Z-181230T2230Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.181229T2152Z.181230T0600Z.181230T1030Z.NO/
813 PM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph.
* until Sunday afternoon. 
* at 07PM Saturday the stage was 24.1 feet.

* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 24.3 feet by after midnight 
  tomorrow. The river will fall below flood stage early tomorrow.
* Impact...at 24.0 feet...Widespread lowland flooding in fields on 
  left bank and woods on right bank.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 23.9 
  feet on Sep 18 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
          3680 7863 3680 7870        

$$

NCC033-157-VAC143-590-300913-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0073.000000T0000Z-181231T0107Z/
/DVLV2.1.ER.181229T0215Z.181229T2116Z.181230T1307Z.UU/
813 PM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River near Danville.
* until Sunday evening. 
* at 07PM Saturday the stage was 19.6 feet.

* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by tomorrow 
  morning.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 20.5 
  feet on Nov 13 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3646 7974 3650 7976 3664 7941 3663 7920
          3648 7923 3650 7949         

$$

VAC083-300913-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0074.000000T0000Z-181231T1550Z/
/PCEV2.1.ER.181229T1520Z.181230T1800Z.181231T0350Z.NO/
813 PM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at Paces.
* until Monday morning. 
* at 07PM Saturday the stage was 21.2 feet.

* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 22.5 feet by tomorrow early 
  afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage tomorrow late 
  evening.
* Impact...at 24.0 feet...Low spots along routes 658 and 671 begin 
  to flood.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 23.3 
  feet on Dec 17 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 7923 3663 7920 3672 7902 3660 7898
          3656 7911                   

$$

VAC083-300913-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0071.000000T0000Z-190101T0804Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.181229T0008Z.181231T0000Z.181231T2004Z.NO/
813 PM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* until late Monday night. 
* at 07PM Saturday the stage was 22.9 feet.

* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 24.3 feet by tomorrow 
  evening. The river will fall below flood stage Monday afternoon.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 25.1 
  feet on Dec 17 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$

Loconto

430 
WGUS81 KRNK 301309
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
809 AM EST Sun Dec 30 2018

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers
in Virginia...North Carolina...
 
  Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph affecting Charlotte and 
  Halifax Counties
  Dan River near Danville affecting Caswell...Rockingham...City of 
  Danville and Pittsylvania Counties
 
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Virginia...

  Dan River at Paces affecting Halifax County 
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County 


Excessive runoff from recent moderate to heavy rainfall will continue
for another couple of days along the lower portion of the Dan River. 
River levels have begun to fall in some locations, and The Roanoke River
has now fallen below flood stage at all forecast sites.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.

The next statement will be issued this evening.

&&

VAC037-083-301339-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FL.W.0072.000000T0000Z-181230T2230Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.181229T2152Z.181230T0200Z.181230T0505Z.NO/
809 AM EST Sun Dec 30 2018

the Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph.
* until further notice.
* at 8 AM EST Sunday the stage was 22.3 feet...and falling.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* The river has crested and is expected to remain below flood
  stage until further notice at this time.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
          3680 7863 3680 7870        

$$

NCC033-157-VAC143-590-301339-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FL.W.0073.000000T0000Z-181231T0107Z/
/DVLV2.1.ER.181229T0215Z.181229T2116Z.181230T1135Z.UU/
809 AM EST Sun Dec 30 2018

the Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Dan River near Danville.
* until this evening. 
* at 8 AM EST Sunday the stage was 16.0 feet....and falling.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* The river has crested and is expected to remain below flood
  stage until further notice.

&&

LAT...LON 3646 7974 3650 7976 3664 7941 3663 7920
          3648 7923 3650 7949         

$$

VAC083-302108-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0074.000000T0000Z-181231T1550Z/
/PCEV2.1.ER.181229T1520Z.181230T1800Z.181231T0350Z.NO/
809 AM EST Sun Dec 30 2018

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at Paces.
* until Monday morning. 
* at 8 AM EST Sunday the stage was 22.2 feet...and rising.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet. Moderate flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 22.5 feet by this afternoon.
  The river is forecast to fall below flood stage tonight.
* Impact...at 24.0 feet...Low spots along routes 658 and 671 begin 
  to flood.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 23.3 
  feet on Dec 17 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 7923 3663 7920 3672 7902 3660 7898
          3656 7911                   

$$

VAC083-302108-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0071.000000T0000Z-190101T0804Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.181229T0008Z.181231T0000Z.181231T2004Z.NO/
809 AM EST Sun Dec 30 2018

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* until late Monday night. 
* at 8 AM EST Sunday the stage was 23.7 feet...and rising.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet. Moderate flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 24.3 feet by this evening. 
  The river is forecast to fall below flood stage tomorrow afternoon.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 25.1 
  feet on Dec 17 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$

RAB

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Dec 28, 9:48 AM EST, 1 hour earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 28, 9:48 AM EST, 1 hour before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
948 AM EST Fri Dec 28 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A moisture laden warm front will approach the area from the south
and cross the region this morning. A cold front will sweep
across the area this afternoon and evening bringing additional
rainfall. After only a brief break in the rain on Saturday,
another series of systems are expected to bring additional
precipitation to the area Sunday through the start of the new
year.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 940 AM EST Friday...

The morning update will reflect two distinct adjustments to the
ongoing forecast. First, a gap in the broader area of
precipitation has developed along a line from roughly Wentworth,
NC northeast through locations such as Danville and Appomattox,
VA. This gap will continue for perhaps another hour or two
before the broader area of precipitation to the west advances
into the region in advance of an approaching cold front. Another
adjustment will be the inclusion of isolated thunder across
some of our NC counties. Lightning network has shown a couple of
strikes across Wilkes County, NC, just west of the region where
there is a gap in precipitation. Extrapolating this region
eastward, and continuing to recognize the stronger wedge in
place along the lee of the Appalachians, will offer some
isolated thunderstorms for the next few hours within our NC
counties and just barely north into parts of Southside VA.

Have also tweaked hourly temperature, dew point, wind/gusts, and
sky cover based upon the latest observations and expected trends
into the early afternoon hours.

As of 255 AM EST Friday...

Flood Watches continue into this evening for mountain counties
west of the Blue Ridge and until Saturday morning for counties
along and east of the Blue Ridge. This watch mainly covers areal
flooding. Forecast river levels and rainfall amounts will be
assessed this morning to determine river flood warnings.

Periods of moderate to heavy rain will continue today as a
strong storm system tracks over the region. Going into the
afternoon, the heavy rain axis shifts east to the piedmont,
exiting by the evening.

Rainfall amounts thus far have ranged from a round an inch
across the North Carolina High Country to the Grayson Highland
and a quarter to half an inch across the rest of the mountains
and foothill counties. Less than a quarter of an inch of rain
has fallen over the piedmont. These totals are lower than
previously forecasted as convection moving across the Tennessee
Valley this afternoon fell apart moving over the wedge. There is
also convection across Georgia early this morning which is
preventing more moisture from heading north into the region. A
cold front will remove the wedge today. This front will have
ample moisture and lift to produce moderate to heavy rain with
up to an inch of additional rainfall. Since the ground is soggy,
most of the rain will be runoff and into already swollen creeks
and streams.

Winds do not appear to be overly strong, but with a soggy
ground, any wind gusts could topple trees causing power outages
as the front passes over the area this afternoon.

The wedges remain across the foothills this morning, but will
break in the afternoon. Warm air advecting in on the back side
of the rain shield will help send temperatures into the upper
50s to mid 60s today. Weak high pressure begins to build into
the area tonight with lows ranging from the upper 30s to low 40s
west of the Blue Ridge to the low to mid 40s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EST Friday

By 12Z (7 AM EST) Saturday, a cold cold will be well to our
east, with gusty northwest winds in its wake with forecast
soundings showing 20-30 knot winds at the base of the low level
inversion. Pushed up winds in the forecast to reflect higher
wind gusts in the mountains. With a deep northwest/westerly
downsloping flow, temperatures on Saturday should be well above
normal east of the Blue Ridge. A blend of model guidance
generates temps around 60 for these areas.

Dry weather will continue through Sunday as high pressure
drifts off to the east. Temps on Sunday will be cooler as
1000-850mb thicknesses fall and we lose some of the downsloping
winds. By late Sunday night, low level moisture begins to lift
north along with increasing isentropic lift. Models disagree
about the timing of saturation in the low levels of the
atmosphere, with the GFS and GFS FV3-GFS slowest. Placed high
chance POPS in the far southern portions of the forecast area
with a sharp gradient of POPS from south to north.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 AM EST Friday

During the long term period, our area transitions from being
influenced by an upper level ridge off the southeast U.S. coast,
to a deepening upper level eastern U.S. trof with a closed low
near the Ohio Valley by Friday. Several upper level waves
lifting northeast on the northern periphery of the upper ridge
through our area will bring multiple rounds of precipitation
until a cold front passes on Tuesday. There still are some
signals in the models that heavy rain that could lead to some
flooding are possible, especially late Monday into Monday night
when the GEFS generates 850mb mflux values over 4 standard
deviations above average and PWAT values 2-3 standard deviations
above average. However, best upper level dynamics and low level
forcing are forecast to be just north of our area. For now,
will continue to highlight the potential for flooding in the
Hazardous weather outlook. Well above normal temps will be found
ahead of the cold front on Tuesday before falling to more
seasonable levels behind the front for mid-week.

Late in the long term period, the aforementioned closed low
helps generate a sfc low across the southeast U.S, but
deterministic models and ensemble members show a large spread in
timing of precipitation, location of the potential low, and
strength of this system. For now, increased POPs across the far
southern portion of our forecast area Thursday into early
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 720 AM EST Friday...

Starting out with widespread LIFR to MVFR ceilings across
southwest Virginia, southeast West Virginia, and northwest North
Carolina this morning. Ceilings were mainly in the 500 to 1500
foot agl range with MVFR visibility in light to moderate rain. A
band of heavy rain that extended From near KSHD to KUKF will
produce IFR visibility.

A strong low level southerly jet atop a pronounced surface
wedge with light winds will lead to low level wind shear at
KROA, KDAN, KLYH, KBCB, KBLF and KLWB through much of the day.

A cold front work from west to east today, which will break up
the wedge and turn winds to the southwest and west. Clouds will
clear out east of the Blue Ridge after 00Z/7PM. Expect
improvement back to KROA sooner than at KDAN and KLYH which may
take until around midnight. Clouds will remain over the
mountains with the westerly upslope winds producing MVFR or
lower ceilings at KBLF and possibly KLWB.

Forecast confidence is above average on timing of precipitation
and cold front. Confidence is below average on how long clouds
will hold over the mountains tonight. Confidence is average for
all other elements.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Winds may be gusty from the northwest into Saturday, but with
the vast majority of the region experiencing VFR conditions.

Sub-VFR conditions return Sunday into at least Tuesday when the
next series of disturbances and their associated precipitation
return to the area.

Forecast confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 1026 PM EST Thursday...

No changes to the flood watch. Coordinated with River Forecast
Centers and may see some decrease in forecast river stages,
especially along the Dan and Roanoke, but its all based on
rainfall amounts forecast. Otherwise, still looks like a general
1-2 inches of rain, with locally 3-4 inches possible across the
Blue Ridge and maybe SE WV with the cold front will likely
create flooding issues later tonight into Friday-Friday evening.

Rainfall rates overall will be under a half an inch an hour, but
could see some higher rates toward WV/Far SW VA Friday. Flash
flooding is not out of the question, but more general
creek/stream and river flooding over a longer period is the main
threat.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for VAZ007-009>014-
     018>020.
     Flood Watch through Saturday morning for VAZ015>017-022>024-
     032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for NCZ001>006-018>020.
WV...Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...DS/RCS
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...AMS/RCS
HYDROLOGY...AMS

Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 28, 3:51 AM EST, 6 hours 57 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
351 AM EST Fri Dec 28 2018

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ015>017-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-290900-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-
Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-
Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
351 AM EST Fri Dec 28 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch into Saturday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ007-009>014-018>020-WVZ042>044-507-508-290900-
Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Craig-
Alleghany VA-Bath-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Western Greenbrier-
351 AM EST Fri Dec 28 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, west
central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

RCS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Blacksburg, VA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Dec 28, 3:49 AM EST	Areal Flood Advisory	RNK	Caswell, Rockingham	116 min
Dec 28, 4:35 AM EST	Areal Flood Advisory	RNK	Ashe, Watauga	3 hr
Dec 28, 7:34 AM EST	Areal Flood Warning	RNK	Ashe, Watauga	9 hr
Dec 28, 8:59 AM EST	Areal Flood Advisory	RNK	Alleghany, Surry, Wilkes	6 hr
Dec 28, 11:36 AM EST	Areal Flood Advisory	RNK	Alleghany, Surry, Wilkes, Yadkin	5 hr
Dec 28, 1:29 PM EST	River Flood Warning	RNK	Surry, Yadkin	18 hr
Dec 28, 2:58 PM EST	River Flood Warning	RNK	Rockingham	23 hr
Dec 28, 3:06 PM EST	Areal Flood Advisory	RNK	Alleghany	4 hr
Dec 28, 4:30 PM EST	Areal Flood Advisory	RNK	Ashe, Watauga	8 hr
Dec 28, 4:34 PM EST	Areal Flood Advisory	RNK	Surry, Wilkes, Yadkin	3 hr
Dec 28, 7:19 AM EST	River Flood Warning	RNK	Halifax	3 days
Dec 28, 7:53 AM EST	Areal Flood Warning	RNK	Floyd, Patrick	9 hr
Dec 28, 10:48 AM EST	River Flood Warning	RNK	Charlotte, Halifax	4 days
Dec 28, 10:48 AM EST	River Flood Warning	RNK	Halifax	3 days
Dec 28, 11:08 AM EST	Areal Flood Advisory	RNK	Craig, Floyd, Franklin, Giles, Montgomery, Pulaski and 4 more	5 hr
Dec 28, 3:11 PM EST	Areal Flood Advisory	RNK	Bedford, Franklin, Henry, City of Martinsville	4 hr
Dec 28, 4:46 PM EST	Areal Flood Advisory	RNK	Floyd, Patrick	3 hr
Dec 28, 4:48 PM EST	Areal Flood Advisory	RNK	Montgomery, Roanoke, City of Roanoke, City of Salem	3 hr
Dec 28, 4:59 PM EST	Areal Flood Advisory	RNK	Charlotte, Halifax, Pittsylvania	3 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in North Carolina, 2018 River Flood Warnings in Virginia, 2018 Every river flood warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.