River Flood Warning 56, NWS Blacksburg, VA

727 
WGUS81 KRNK 160155
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
855 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...Virginia...
 
  Dan River near Danville affecting Caswell...Rockingham...City of 
  Danville and Pittsylvania Counties 
  Dan River at Paces affecting Halifax County 
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County 


 ...Excess water from upstream reaches of the Dan River continue to 
 cause rises on the Dan River at Danville and Paces, and have led to
 a slowing of receding at South Boston. Continued rises are expected 
 as this water moves downriver. No changes to flood categories with 
 the most updated forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.

 
 
The next scheduled statement will be issued tomorrow, or sooner if 
forecast flood categories change.

&&

NCC033-157-VAC143-590-160955-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0056.181116T0148Z-181117T1513Z/
/DVLV2.1.ER.181115T2325Z.181116T1200Z.181117T0313Z.UU/
855 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River near Danville.
* until Saturday morning. 
* at 08PM Thursday the stage was 17.9 feet.

* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 19.9 feet by tomorrow 
  morning. The river will fall below flood stage tomorrow late 
  evening.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 19.7 
  feet on Aug 2 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3646 7974 3650 7976 3664 7941 3663 7920
          3648 7923 3650 7949         

$$

VAC083-160955-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0053.000000T0000Z-181118T1600Z/
/PCEV2.U.ER.181116T0234Z.000000T0000Z.181118T0400Z.UU/
855 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at Paces.
* from tonight until Sunday morning
* at 07PM Thursday the stage was 19.1 feet.

* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage tonight and continue to rise 
  to near 24.1 feet by tomorrow evening. The river will fall below 
  flood stage by Saturday before midnight.
* Impact...at 24.0 feet...Low spots along routes 658 and 671 begin 
  to flood.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 23.6 
  feet on Dec 26 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 7923 3663 7920 3672 7902 3660 7898
          3656 7911                   

$$

VAC083-160955-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0054.000000T0000Z-181119T0913Z/
/SBNV2.U.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.181118T2113Z.UU/
855 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* until late Sunday night. 
* at 08PM Thursday the stage was 24.2 feet.

* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 25.7 feet by Saturday 
  morning. The river will fall below flood stage Sunday afternoon.
* Impact...at 27.0 feet...Water approaches route 501.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 25.6 
  feet on May 19 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$

Loconto

116 
WGUS81 KRNK 160736
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
236 AM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...Virginia...
 
  Dan River near Danville affecting Caswell and Rockingham Counties...
  the City of Danville and Pittsylvania County 
  Dan River at Paces affecting Halifax County 
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County 

One to two inches of rain on Wednesday night and Thursday have resulted 
in rises on the Dan River. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.
 
The next scheduled statement will be issued by noon.

&&

NCC033-157-VAC143-590-161536-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0056.000000T0000Z-181117T1012Z/
/DVLV2.1.ER.181115T2325Z.181116T1200Z.181116T2212Z.UU/
236 AM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River near Danville.
* until late tonight. 
* at 02AM Friday the stage was 18.2 feet and was cresting.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 18.4 feet by this morning. 
  The river will fall below flood stage late this afternoon.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 18.4 
  feet on Jun 18 2017.

&&

LAT...LON 3646 7974 3650 7976 3664 7941 3663 7920
          3648 7923 3650 7949         

$$

VAC083-161536-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0053.000000T0000Z-181118T0930Z/
/PCEV2.1.ER.181116T0515Z.181117T0600Z.181117T2130Z.NO/
236 AM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at Paces.
* until late Saturday night. 
* at 01AM Friday the stage was 20.2 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 23.1 feet by after early 
  Saturday morning. The river will fall below flood stage Saturday
  afternoon.
* Impact...at 24.0 feet...Low spots along Routes 658 and 671 begin 
  to flood.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 23.6 
  feet on Dec 26 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 7923 3663 7920 3672 7902 3660 7898
          3656 7911                   

$$

VAC083-161536-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0054.000000T0000Z-181119T0336Z/
/SBNV2.2.ER.000000T0000Z.181117T1200Z.181118T1536Z.NO/
236 AM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* until Sunday evening. 
* at 02AM Friday the stage was 23.8 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 25.4 feet by Saturday
  morning. The river will fall below flood stage late Sunday morning.
* Impact...at 27.0 feet...Water approaches Route 501.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 25.6 
  feet on May 19 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$

287 
WGUS81 KRNK 161458
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
958 AM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...North Carolina...
 
  Roanoke (Staunton) River At Brookneal affecting Campbell...Charlotte
  and Halifax Counties 
  Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph affecting Charlotte and Halifax
  Counties 
  Dan River near Danville affecting Caswell...Rockingham...City of 
  Danville and Pittsylvania Counties 
  Dan River at Paces affecting Halifax County 
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County 

One to two inches of rain on Wednesday night and Thursday have resulted
in rises on the Dan and Roanoke (Staunton) Rivers.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.
 
The next scheduled statement will be issued this evening, earlier
if conditions warrant.

&&

VAC031-037-083-162258-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0057.000000T0000Z-181117T0600Z/
/BROV2.1.ER.000000T0000Z.181116T1200Z.181116T1800Z.NO/
958 AM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke (Staunton) River At Brookneal.
* until late tonight. 
* at 8AM Friday the stage was 23.2 feet.

* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by this 
  afternoon.
* Impact...at 23.0 feet...Low-lying fields and woods are flooded.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 24.2 
  feet on May 19 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 7911 3711 7908 3703 7882 3695 7885
                                      

$$

VAC037-083-162258-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0058.181116T1600Z-181118T1407Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.181116T1600Z.181117T1200Z.181118T0207Z.NO/
958 AM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph.
* from late this morning until Sunday morning
* at 8AM Friday the stage was 23.7 feet.

* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by late this morning and 
  continue to rise to near 25.4 feet by tomorrow morning. The river 
  will fall below flood stage by tomorrow late evening.
* Impact...at 25.0 feet...Water is several feet deep on portions of 
  river road and black walnut road.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 23.9 
  feet on Apr 26 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
          3680 7863 3680 7870        

$$

NCC033-157-VAC143-590-162258-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0056.000000T0000Z-181117T0627Z/
/DVLV2.1.ER.181115T2325Z.181116T1145Z.181116T1827Z.UU/
958 AM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River near Danville.
* until late tonight. 
* at 9AM Friday the stage was 18.2 feet.

* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by this 
  afternoon.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 18.4 
  feet on Jun 18 2017.

&&

LAT...LON 3646 7974 3650 7976 3664 7941 3663 7920
          3648 7923 3650 7949         

$$

VAC083-162258-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0053.000000T0000Z-181118T0724Z/
/PCEV2.1.ER.181116T0515Z.181117T0600Z.181117T1924Z.NO/
958 AM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at Paces.
* until late Saturday night. 
* at 8AM Friday the stage was 21.1 feet.

* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 22.5 feet around midnight.
  The river will fall below flood stage tomorrow early afternoon.
* Impact...at 24.0 feet...Low spots along routes 658 and 671 begin 
  to flood.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 23.6 
  feet on Dec 26 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 7923 3663 7920 3672 7902 3660 7898
          3656 7911                   

$$

VAC083-162258-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0054.000000T0000Z-181118T2127Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.000000T0000Z.181117T1200Z.181118T0927Z.NO/
958 AM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* until Sunday afternoon. 
* at 9AM Friday the stage was 23.8 feet.

* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 24.4 feet by tomorrow 
  morning. The river will fall below flood stage Sunday morning.
* Impact...at 27.0 feet...Water approaches route 501.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 25.6 
  feet on May 19 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$

488 
WGUS81 KRNK 162037
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
337 PM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers
in Virginia...
 
  Roanoke (Staunton) River At Brookneal affecting Campbell...
  Charlotte and Halifax Counties
 
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...North Carolina...
 
  Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph affecting Charlotte and Halifax
  Counties 
  Dan River near Danville affecting Caswell...Rockingham...City of 
  Danville and Pittsylvania Counties 
  Dan River at Paces affecting Halifax County 
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County 

One to two inches of rain on Wednesday night and Thursday have resulted
in rises on the Dan and Roanoke (Staunton) Rivers. The Roanoke (Staunton)
River at Brookneal has fallen below flood stage, and will continue to
fall through the evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.

The next scheduled statement will be issued tonight, earlier
if conditions warranted.

&&

VAC031-037-083-162107-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FL.W.0057.000000T0000Z-181117T0600Z/
/BROV2.1.ER.000000T0000Z.181116T1200Z.181116T1452Z.NO/
337 PM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

the Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Roanoke (Staunton) River At Brookneal.
* at 2PM Friday the stage was 22.2 feet.

* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Impact...at 23.0 feet...Low-lying fields and woods are flooded.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 21.4 
  feet on Oct 9 2016.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 7911 3711 7908 3703 7882 3695 7885
                                      

$$

VAC037-083-170436-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0058.000000T0000Z-181118T1424Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.181116T1545Z.181117T1200Z.181118T0224Z.NO/
337 PM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph.
* until Sunday morning. 
* at 2PM Friday the stage was 24.5 feet.

* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 25.4 feet by tomorrow 
  morning. The river will fall below flood stage tomorrow late 
  evening.
* Impact...at 25.0 feet...Water is several feet deep on portions of 
  river road and black walnut road.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 25.3 
  feet on May 26 2017.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
          3680 7863 3680 7870        

$$

NCC033-157-VAC143-590-170436-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0056.000000T0000Z-181117T0909Z/
/DVLV2.1.ER.181115T2325Z.181116T1501Z.181116T2109Z.UU/
337 PM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River near Danville.
* until late tonight. 
* at 3PM Friday the stage was 17.5 feet.

* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by late this 
  afternoon.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 18.4 
  feet on Jun 18 2017.

&&

LAT...LON 3646 7974 3650 7976 3664 7941 3663 7920
          3648 7923 3650 7949         

$$

VAC083-170436-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0053.000000T0000Z-181118T0641Z/
/PCEV2.1.ER.181116T0515Z.181117T0600Z.181117T1841Z.NO/
337 PM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at Paces.
* until late Saturday night. 
* at 2PM Friday the stage was 21.7 feet.

* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 22.3 feet around midnight. 
  The river will fall below flood stage tomorrow early afternoon.
* Impact...at 24.0 feet...Low spots along routes 658 and 671 begin 
  to flood.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 21.6 
  feet on Oct 1 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 7923 3663 7920 3672 7902 3660 7898
          3656 7911                   

$$

VAC083-170436-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0054.000000T0000Z-181118T2243Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.000000T0000Z.181117T1800Z.181118T1043Z.NO/
337 PM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* until Sunday afternoon. 
* at 3PM Friday the stage was 23.9 feet.

* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 24.2 feet by tomorrow early 
  afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage Sunday morning.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 24.5 
  feet on Oct 10 2016.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$

092 
WGUS81 KRNK 162227
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
527 PM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers
in North Carolina...Virginia...
 
  Dan River near Danville affecting Caswell...Rockingham...City of 
  Danville and Pittsylvania Counties
 

 ...River levels at the Dan River at Danville have fallen to 
 below flood stage levels. A continued receding trend is expected. 
 Thus the flood warning is being cancelled for the Dan River 
 at Danville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.

 
 
The next scheduled statement will be issued *** fill me in ***

&&

NCC033-157-VAC143-590-162257-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FL.W.0056.000000T0000Z-181117T0909Z/
/DVLV2.1.ER.181115T2325Z.181116T1501Z.181116T2140Z.UU/
527 PM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

the Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Dan River near Danville.
* until late tonight. 
* at 05PM Friday the stage was 16.9 feet.

* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 16.4 
  feet on Jan 24 2017.

&&

LAT...LON 3646 7974 3650 7976 3664 7941 3663 7920
          3648 7923 3650 7949         

$$

Loconto

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
103 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A deepening low was off the southeast coast with a high over New York
wedges down the Appalachians. By Friday morning the low will be
close to Long Island. High pressure will be over the Mid Atlantic
region Saturday, followed by a cold front that will sweep out of the
Ohio Valley on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1000 AM EST Thursday...

Upper level closed low will drift northeast into the Ohio
Valley this afternoon. Meanwhile, the parent ridge of the wedge
will remain over New England. The good news is that the wedge
will erode over the area, allowing temperatures to recover above
freezing heading into this afternoon. Most areas are reporting
freezing rain with temperatures right around 32F, give or take a
degree. Rainfall rates have also increased as the back edge of
the precipitation begins to enter the area from the south at 10
AM. Given temperatures are warming and rainfall rates have
increase, any addition ice accretions will be minor. Winds have
not been an issue, except over the piedmont where cross-barrier
jet resides. However, icing has not been as great compared to
the mountains. Winds are expected to increase some over the
mountains as precipitation departs, but ice should melt by
then. We will start canceling winter weather headlines as
precipitation exits and temperatures warm.

At this time, flooding has not been an issue as most of the
precipitation has been frozen, keeping runoff slow. Storm total
rainfall amounts over the Dan River basin have ranged from an
inch to an inch and a quarter. Another quarter to half of
an inch is expected into early this afternoon. There still
exist the threat for road closures due to high water, therefore
will keep current flood watch as is. New river forecasts for the
Dan River will be issued by 11 AM.

As of 305 AM EST Thursday...

No changes planned to any headlines at this time.

Classic mid-latitude cyclone early this morning over the eastern
United States. Warm conveyor belt progresses east today as the upper
low tracks across Kentucky and West Virginia. Dry slot reaches
western Virginia in the afternoon. Latest RAP was trending a bit
slower with the back edge of the main shield of precipitation,
reaching Lynchburg and Danville around 5PM.
Coldest air aloft and deepest moisture with the upper low moves
across southeast West Virginia and the Alleghany Highlands
overnight. At the surface, low pressure off the Georgia coast will
continue to deepen as it moves northeast toward the DelMarVa region
by this evening. Once the low reaches a far enough north latitude
winds will torn to the northwest. A 35 to 45 knot 850MB jet will
result in enhanced upslope on the western side of the central
Appalachians and downslope clearing east of the Blue Ridge. Will
make subtle adjustments to the timing of the precipitation today and
will veer the forecast wind more to the northwest tonight.

Watching the dew point depression gradually shrink from southwest to
northeast as the air mass saturates. 06Z/1AM special sounding from
KIAD still showed some dry air and room for evaporative cooling
below 650MB. Also seeing that reflected in the surface obs in
Rockbridge and Botetourt Counties with an 8 degree dew point
depression. As of 2AM getting some reports of icing and below
freezing temperatures along the spine of the Blue Ridge, in
southeast West Virginia, in northwest North Carolina, and in the New
River Valley. Will be using a non-diurnal trend to reflect
additional cooling for temperatures today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 AM EST Thursday...

As the low pressure system departs, conditions will be blustery and
cold across the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region with
lingering snow showers west of the Blue Ridge dissipating by the
afternoon. The upper pattern will then become zonal with fair weather
expected through the weekend. One potential fly in the ointment is a
plume of low level moisture that may move down from the northwest and
bring more clouds to locations west of the Blue Ridge Friday night into
Saturday. However the correlation between upstream satellite imagery
and guidance RH fields is not stellar so confidence in the added cloud
cover is not high so will maintain the fair weather forecast for now. A
weak front will approach from the northwest with a chance of rain/snow
showers west of the Ridge late Sunday night.

Temperatures are expected to remain below normal through the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EST Wednesday...

A weak front may bring some rain/snow showers to locations west of the
Blue Ridge through Monday morning. However, then pattern aloft shows
more of a fast zonal but northwest flow and this will keep us in drier
pattern for now, with temperatures still averaging 5 to 10 degrees
below normal, especially high temps.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1240 AM EST Thursday...

Rain beginning to pull out of the area early this afternoon, but
low clouds and possible drizzle to hang around through the
afternoon. Good news is that temperatures will warm above
freezing through the afternoon.

MVFR to IFR ceilings will hang around into the evening along and
east of the Blue Ridge. A closed low will drift to the Ohio
Valley and increase mixing over the region. As winds increase
from the west, low clouds will dissipate along and east of the
Blue Ridge. For the west, ceilings and visibilities will become
VFR by mid afternoon, then lower to MVFR as showers from the
closed low advance towards the area. Rain showers will change
over to snow through the evening. Snow showers will be more
intense along western slopes between 02Z-10Z Friday. Through the
morning hours snow showers will taper off from south to north
with everyone returning to VFR.

Modest pressure rises and an increasing NW cross barrier jet
will bring breezy conditions to the area starting across the
mountains after midnight then the entire region during the day.
Northwest winds gusting to 25KTS will be common with gusts to
45KTS along ridgetops.

Confidence is average for timing of the precipitation,
precipitation type, and ceilings, and above average for all
other elements.

Extended Discussion...

VFR conditions with a mostly clear sky will return across the
region for the weekend. Models suggest a chance for MVFR
ceilings in southeast West Virginia on Friday night and Saturday
morning but confidence is this occurring is low.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 305 AM EST Thursday...

Will be basing rainfall amounts for the rest of the event heavily
off of the Weather Prediction Center forecast numbers. This amount
of rainfall over the Dan River basin will likely bring Danville back
into flood. Additional evaluation and modification of forecast river
levels will be made again later this morning. Strongest isentropic
lift and best advection of higher precipitable water, up to 1.5
inches, will be through 1PM.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for
     VAZ018>020-023-024-034-035.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ007-
     009>017-022-032-033.
     Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for VAZ043-044-058-059.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     VAZ043.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     VAZ045>047.
NC...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NCZ001>003-018-019.
     Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for NCZ004>006-020.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NCZ004-020.
WV...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for
     WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/RCS
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS/WP
AVIATION...RCS
HYDROLOGY...AMS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
147 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ007-009>017-022-032-033-161900-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-
Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Roanoke-Patrick-
Franklin-
147 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, southwest Virginia and west central
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Rain is ending but ice may remain on trees into this evening.
Temperatures are expected to warm into the mid 30s before sunset.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ018>020-023-024-034-035-WVZ042>044-507-508-161900-
Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Bedford-Amherst-Mercer-
Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
147 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, south
central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and
southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ005-006-VAZ044-058-059-161900-
Rockingham-Caswell-Pittsylvania-Halifax-Charlotte-
147 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina
and south central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ045>047-161900-
Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-
147 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ004-020-VAZ043-161900-
Stokes-Yadkin-Henry-
147 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina and south central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

RCS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
216 PM EST THU NOV 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     FREEZING RAIN    2 NW FRIES              36.74N 80.99W
11/15/2018  M0.25 INCH       GRAYSON            VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            0.25 INCH OF ICE MEASURED ON STEVENS CREEK
            RD.

&&

VFJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
219 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ007-009>017-022-032-033-WVZ042-152130-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-
Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Roanoke-Patrick-
Franklin-Mercer-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Dobson, Boone,
Wilkesboro, Tazewell, Marion, Bland, Pearisburg, Wytheville,
Radford, Pulaski, Blacksburg, Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale,
Volney, Galax, Floyd, Roanoke, Salem, Stuart, Rocky Mount,
Bluefield, and Flat Top
219 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

...Light Rain and Drizzle this Afternoon...

Bulk of the heavy rain has moved north of the area this
afternoon. However, light rain and drizzle will likely persist
into this evening. Majority of the area has seen temperatures warm
into the mid 30s, while a few locations are still experiencing
temperatures near 30F. Additional glazing of ice is possible on
elevated surfaces such as trees and decks. Ice on trees may remain
heavy enough to cause limbs to snap resulting in additional power
outages.

RCS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
240 PM EST THU NOV 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     FREEZING RAIN    3 S MAXWELTON           37.83N 80.41W
11/15/2018  E0.10 INCH       GREENBRIER         WV   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ON BRUSH
            ROAD.

&&

PW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
257 PM EST THU NOV 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     FREEZING RAIN    1 WNW WARM SPRINGS      38.05N 79.80W
11/15/2018  M0.25 INCH       BATH               VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE AND AN INCH OF A
            MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET ON MOUNTAIN VALLEY
            ROAD.

&&

PW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
315 PM EST THU NOV 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     FREEZING RAIN    1 S OAK LEVEL           36.80N 79.92W
11/15/2018  E0.10 INCH       HENRY              VA   PUBLIC

            ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE IN TREES
            THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

&&

VFJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
319 PM EST THU NOV 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0317 PM     FREEZING RAIN    1 NW VESUVIUS           37.91N 79.22W
11/15/2018  E0.50 INCH       ROCKBRIDGE         VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A HALF AN INCH OF ICE ALONG WITH A MIX OF
            SNOW AND SLEET ON SHADOW RIDGE LANE.

&&

PW