Frost Advisory 1, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Caswell County, NC, Rockingham County, NC, Stokes County, NC, Surry County, NC, Wilkes County, NC, Yadkin County, NC, Amherst County, VA, Appomattox County, VA, Bedford County, VA, Botetourt County, VA, Buckingham County, VA, Campbell County, VA, Charlotte County, VA, City of Buena Vista, VA, City of Danville, VA, City of Lexington, VA, City of Lynchburg, VA, City of Martinsville, VA, Franklin County, VA, Halifax County, VA, Henry County, VA, Patrick County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA, Rockbridge County, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1036 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will continue to progress east of the region
this morning and offshore by afternoon. Much colder air on
strong northwest winds including mountain snow or rain showers
follows the front today into Tuesday. Weak high pressure builds
in on Wednesday with warmer and drier weather expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 AM EDT Monday...

No significant changes to current forecast necessary. Chilly and
blustery through this afternoon with rain to snow showers
mainly west of the Blue Ridge. Many lingering hydro issues as
runoff from widespread rainfall continues.

Previous discussion...

Surface cold front will continue to push east of the region early
this morning followed by the actual 850 mb boundary that should
cross the Blue Ridge around 12z if not sooner. This looks to bring
about a prolonged period of cold advection into tonight as the large
upper low also pivots across including embedded shortwave energy.
Resulting lift with these impulses along with upslope flow should
keep periods of upslope rain/snow showers going with more
significant bands of snow showers possible northwest this evening
when the boundary layer cools more. However thinking any
accumulation during the daylight hours will be mainly confined to
the higher ridges with perhaps 1-3 inches overnight but not enough
for an advisory at this point. Otherwise the combination of cold
advection and subsidence within a 30-40 kt 850 mb jet likely enough
to warrant a wind advisory along the southern Blue Ridge today. This
may be limited by cloud cover but given wet ground and potential
surge in speeds this morning will hoist a headline for ROA to TNB
through 00z. Otherwise blustery and much colder mountains where
expect more clouds, while the east bumps well into the 50s per
downslope flow and more sunshine.

Strong pressure gradient remains in place tonight with deep
northwest flow aiding continued upslope along with gusty northwest
winds espcly mountains. Thus will maintain going high pops northwest
and clouds out to the Blue Ridge with mainly clear skies east. This
of concern with possible frost/freeze conditions out east although
given large temp/dewpoint spread not expecting much frost with lows
enough above freezing to preclude a freeze espcly given some light
mixing. Also winds may again ramp up late along the ridges behind
another passing wave as the 850 mb jet again cranks up to 40 kts
overnight. Lows mostly 30s east to 25-32 west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 AM EDT Monday...

Heights to rebound Tuesday into Wednesday as the upper low exits and
shortwave ridging develops between the two. This along with
increasing warm advection should make for warmer temps starting
Tuesday with highs ranging from the upper 40s northwest to mid 50s
Blue Ridge to mid 60s southeast. Will also see some increase in
mid/high clouds within the deepening warm advection Tuesday
night/Wednesday which will hold lows up a bit more Tuesday night
with only the far northwest going below freezing. Should be a
warm/breezy day Wednesday under rebounding temps aloft and enough
mixing to support highs mostly 70s under some sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 510 PM EDT Sunday...

With active weather in the near-term period, didn't spend as much
time with this forecast period with the forecast basis being from
the overnight 00z and 06z model suite, along with early 12z
guidance.

Warming trend to temperatures continues early in the period (thru
Thursday) before a cold front associated with a low pressure
area/clipper system passes to our north. Chances for showers appear
limited in this period. Brief cool down Friday into first part of
Saturday with below-normal temps indicated. Temperatures than begin
to warm along with moisture values as we await a progged strong
southern stream disturbance moving out of the mid-Mississippi Valley
to impact the region Sunday into Monday. This may bring another shot
of decent rainfall to the region.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 700 AM EDT Monday...

Showers continue to exit slowly to the north early this morning
with upslope rain/snow showers filling in around KBLF/KLWB.
However low clouds likely to linger across much of the area this
morning before a stronger downslope northwest component
develops by afternoon. This should help scour out the low cigs
east of the mountains with VFR expected to return by early
afternoon if not sooner. Still looking at poor flying conditions
across the mountains with IFR cigs likely to linger around KBLF
this morning with conditions perhaps improving to MVFR at times
by tonight. Snow or rain showers may also result in periods of
MVFR vsbys across the southeast West Va sites. Also appears KBCB
will improve to VFR by midday today with KROA mainly seeing VFR
cigs. Northwest winds will be strong at times with gusts topping
30-35 kts around KROA and possibly 20-30 kts elsewhere.

Gusty northwest winds will continue tonight through Tuesday
along with mountain sub-VFR in low cigs espcly KBLF/KLWB.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Finally looking at a return to overall VFR on Wednesday with a
gusty southwest wind likely ahead of yet another approaching
cold front.

Next front arrives Wed night-Thu with chance of showers, with
gusty winds and sub-VFR cigs again Thursday in the mountains.

VFR returns Friday although gusty northerly winds to persist as
high pressure slowly builds in from the northwest.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 645 AM EDT Monday...

Main concern over the next 24 hours will be with residual runoff
of between 2 and 4 inches of rain resulting in flooding of
smaller creeks and streams today and perhaps river flooding into
mid week. Please see the latest statements (WBCFLSRNK) and
warnings (WBCFLWRNK) regarding ongoing flooding and potential
river flooding along several different mainstem basins.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ015>017-022.
NC...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ001-002-018.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...AL
AVIATION...AL/JH/WP
HYDROLOGY...JH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
402 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ015>017-022-170815-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Roanoke-
402 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

In addition, minor to occasionally moderate flooding along creeks,
streams, and rivers can be expected across the region as a result of
heavy rainfall that fell Sunday afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

WVZ508-170815-
Western Greenbrier-
402 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Snow will be possible later today and tonight as cold air spreads
back into the region. Accumulations of 1 to 3 inches will be possible
by Tuesday morning, especially at the higher elevations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ007-009>014-018>020-023-024-032>035-043>047-
058-059-WVZ042>044-507-170815-
Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Wilkes-Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-
Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Botetourt-
Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-
Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-
Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
402 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

However, minor to occasionally moderate flooding along creeks,
streams, and rivers can be expected across the region as a result of
heavy rainfall that fell Sunday afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

RAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1030 AM EDT MON APR 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SSE MAYFIELD          36.45N 79.55W
04/15/2018                   ROCKINGHAM         NC   PUBLIC

            LOTS OF STRUCTURAL AND TREE DAMAGE. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

JRUCKMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1036 AM EDT MON APR 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 AM     TSTM WND DMG     6 S DANBURY             36.33N 80.23W
04/15/2018                   STOKES             NC   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE LARGE OAK TREES UPROOTED OR SNAPPED IN HALF.
            SHINGLES OFF HOUSE. INDICATED POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

JRUCKMAN

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