Alert archive / Virginia / Flash Flood Watches in 2018

Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Blacksburg, VA

May 17, 20184 counties in West Virginia; 37 counties in Virginia; 9 counties in North Carolina

NWS Blacksburg, VA issued this flash flood watch at May 17, 2018, 4:13 AM EDT for 4 counties in West Virginia; 37 counties in Virginia; 9 counties in North Carolina. It took effect at May 17, 2018, 10:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 62 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
May 17, 2018, 4:13 AM EDT (08:13 UTC)
In effect from
May 17, 2018, 10:00 AM EDT
Expired
May 20, 2018, 12:00 AM EDT
In force
62 hr
Issued by
NWS Blacksburg, VA
Flood severity
None
All 50 counties

Alleghany County, NC, Ashe County, NC, Caswell County, NC, Rockingham County, NC, Stokes County, NC, Surry County, NC, Watauga County, NC, Wilkes County, NC, Yadkin County, NC, Alleghany County, VA, Amherst County, VA, Appomattox County, VA, Bath County, VA, Bedford County, VA, Bland County, VA, Botetourt County, VA, Buckingham County, VA, Campbell County, VA, Carroll County, VA, Charlotte County, VA, City of Buena Vista, VA, City of Covington, VA, City of Danville, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Lexington, VA, City of Lynchburg, VA, City of Martinsville, VA, City of Radford, VA, City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, Craig County, VA, Floyd County, VA, Franklin County, VA, Giles County, VA, Grayson County, VA, Halifax County, VA, Henry County, VA, Montgomery County, VA, Patrick County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA, Pulaski County, VA, Roanoke County, VA, Rockbridge County, VA, Smyth County, VA, Tazewell County, VA, Wythe County, VA, Greenbrier County, WV, Mercer County, WV, Monroe County, WV, Summers County, WV

The radar

The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 11 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 114 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2018-05-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 137 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2018-05-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 44 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
137 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-57 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
909 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
17 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
44 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
42 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

742 
WGUS61 KRNK 170813
FFARNK

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
413 AM EDT Thu May 17 2018

...Locally Heavy Rainfall Expected Later Today, Tonight, and into
Friday...

.The combination of a weak stalled frontal boundary across the
northern part of the forecast area and an area of low pressure
laden with tropical Gulf Moisture moving northward from the 
southeast states, will bring a one to two day period of heavy 
rain showers and a few thunderstorms to the mountains of northwest
North Carolina and southwest Virginia. Rainfall at some locations
across this part of the forecast area during the past couple of 
days has been in the 2-4 inch range and the ground is saturated, 
so additional heavy rainfall could quickly lead to flash 
flooding, as well as quick rises on small creeks and streams. 
General main stem river flooding appears less likely.

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ015-172030-
/O.NEW.KRNK.FF.A.0002.180517T1400Z-180519T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Grayson-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Dobson, Boone, 
Wilkesboro, Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, and Volney
413 AM EDT Thu May 17 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of North Carolina and southwest 
  Virginia, including the following areas, in North Carolina, 
  Alleghany NC, Ashe, Surry, Watauga, and Wilkes. In southwest 
  Virginia, Grayson. 

* From 10 AM EDT this morning through Friday evening

* Additional localized rainfall of 2 to 4 inches possible in areas
  where the ground is already saturated from recent rainfall.

* Localized flash flooding in areas of heavier rainfall. Flooding
  of small streams, creeks, and smaller rivers such as the Watauga
  River, as well as urban areas of Boone, Wilkesboro, North
  Wilkesboro, Jefferson, Independence, and other similar areas in
  this region.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. 
Remember...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

RAB
10 follow-up statements
448 
WGUS61 KRNK 171916
FFARNK

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
316 PM EDT Thu May 17 2018

...Locally Heavy Rainfall Expected Through Friday...

.The combination of a weak stalled frontal boundary across West
Virginia and Virginia, and an area of low pressure laden with 
tropical Gulf Moisture moving northward from the southern
Appalachians, will bring periods of heavy rain showers and a few 
thunderstorms with torrential downpours to the central Mid-
Atlantic States. The Highlands of Virginia and West Virginia, and
into the High Country of North Carolina will be most susceptible 
to rapid runoff of this rainfall due to the steep terrain. 
Expected rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is possible through Friday, 
some of this rain occurring in a very short period of time. If 
this occurs, streams will rise rapidly and may quickly lead to 
flash flooding. 


NCZ004>006-020-VAZ007-009>014-016>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-
059-WVZ042>044-507-508-180330-
/O.EXB.KRNK.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-180519T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-
Pulaski-Montgomery-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-
Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-
Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
Including the cities of Danbury, Eden, Yanceyville, Yadkinville, 
Tazewell, Marion, Bland, Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, 
Pulaski, Blacksburg, Galax, Floyd, New Castle, Clifton Forge, 
Covington, Hot Springs, Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, Lexington, 
Buena Vista, Stuart, Rocky Mount, Bedford, Amherst, Martinsville,
Danville, Lynchburg, Appomattox, South Boston, Keysville, 
Bluefield, Flat Top, Hinton, Hix, Union, Lewisburg, 
White Sulphur Springs, Alderson, Quinwood, Duo, and Rainelle
316 PM EDT Thu May 17 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has expanded the

* Flash Flood Watch to include portions of North Carolina, 
  Virginia, and southeast West Virginia, including the following 
  areas, in North Carolina, Caswell, Rockingham, Stokes, and 
  Yadkin. In Virginia, Alleghany VA, Amherst, Appomattox, Bath, 
  Bedford, Bland, Botetourt, Buckingham, Campbell, Carroll, 
  Charlotte, Craig, Floyd, Franklin, Giles, Halifax, Henry, 
  Montgomery, Patrick, Pittsylvania, Pulaski, Roanoke, 
  Rockbridge, Smyth, Tazewell, and Wythe. In southeast West 
  Virginia, Eastern Greenbrier, Mercer, Monroe, Summers, and 
  Western Greenbrier. 

* Through Friday evening.

* Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is expected, some of this rain 
  occurring in a very short period of time. 

* Expect flash flooding in areas of torrential rainfall. Flooding
  of small streams, creeks, and smaller rivers may occur with
  little warning. 
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
Remember...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ015-180330-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-180519T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Grayson-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Dobson, Boone, 
Wilkesboro, Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, and Volney
316 PM EDT Thu May 17 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for

* Portions of North Carolina and southwest Virginia, including 
  the following areas, in North Carolina, Alleghany NC, Ashe, 
  Surry, Watauga, and Wilkes. In southwest Virginia, Grayson. 

* Through Friday evening.

* Additional localized rainfall of 2 to 4 inches possible in 
  areas where the ground is already saturated from recent 
  rainfall. 

* Localized flash flooding in areas of heavier rainfall. 
  Flooding of small streams, creeks, and smaller rivers such as 
  the Watauga River, as well as urban areas of Boone, 
  Wilkesboro, North Wilkesboro, Jefferson, Independence, and 
  other similar areas in this region. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
Remember...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
334 
WGUS61 KRNK 172025
FFARNK

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
425 PM EDT Thu May 17 2018

...Locally Heavy Rainfall Expected Through Friday...

.The combination of a weak stalled frontal boundary across West
Virginia and Virginia, and an area of low pressure laden with
tropical Gulf Moisture moving northward from the southern
Appalachians, will bring periods of heavy rain showers and a few
thunderstorms with torrential downpours to the central Mid-
Atlantic States. The Highlands of Virginia and West Virginia, and
into the High Country of North Carolina will be most susceptible
to rapid runoff of this rainfall due to the steep terrain.
Expected rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is possible through Friday,
some of this rain occurring in a very short period of time. If
this occurs, streams will rise rapidly and may quickly lead to
flash flooding.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-180900-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-180519T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-
Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-
Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-
Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-
Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Dobson, Danbury, 
Eden, Yanceyville, Boone, Wilkesboro, Yadkinville, Tazewell, 
Marion, Bland, Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, 
Blacksburg, Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, Galax, 
Floyd, New Castle, Clifton Forge, Covington, Hot Springs, 
Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, Lexington, Buena Vista, Stuart, 
Rocky Mount, Bedford, Amherst, Martinsville, Danville, Lynchburg,
Appomattox, South Boston, Keysville, Bluefield, Flat Top, Hinton,
Hix, Union, Lewisburg, White Sulphur Springs, Alderson, Quinwood,
Duo, and Rainelle
425 PM EDT Thu May 17 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of North Carolina, Virginia, and southeast West 
  Virginia, including the following areas, in North Carolina, 
  Alleghany NC, Ashe, Caswell, Rockingham, Stokes, Surry, 
  Watauga, Wilkes, and Yadkin. In Virginia, Alleghany VA, 
  Amherst, Appomattox, Bath, Bedford, Bland, Botetourt, 
  Buckingham, Campbell, Carroll, Charlotte, Craig, Floyd, 
  Franklin, Giles, Grayson, Halifax, Henry, Montgomery, Patrick, 
  Pittsylvania, Pulaski, Roanoke, Rockbridge, Smyth, Tazewell, 
  and Wythe. In southeast West Virginia, Eastern Greenbrier, 
  Mercer, Monroe, Summers, and Western Greenbrier. 

* Through Friday evening.

* Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is expected, some of this rain 
  occurring in a very short period of time. 

* Expect flash flooding in areas of torrential rainfall. 
  Flooding of small streams, creeks, and smaller rivers may 
  occur with little warning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
Remember...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

11
374 
WGUS61 KRNK 180807
FFARNK

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
407 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018

...Locally Heavy Rainfall Through This evening...

.The combination of a weak stalled frontal boundary across 
our region, and an area of low pressure laden with tropical Gulf 
Moisture moving northward from the southern Appalachians, will 
bring periods of heavy rain showers and a few thunderstorms with 
torrential downpours to the central Mid- Atlantic States. Recent
heavy rains will enhance the flood threat. Additional rainfall of
one to three inches is possible through this evening, some of 
this rain occurring in a very short period of time. Flooding of 
small streams, creeks, and smaller rivers may occur with little 
warning. 

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-181615-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-180519T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-
Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-
Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-
Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-
Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Dobson, Danbury, 
Eden, Yanceyville, Boone, Wilkesboro, Yadkinville, Tazewell, 
Marion, Bland, Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, 
Blacksburg, Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, Galax, 
Floyd, New Castle, Clifton Forge, Covington, Hot Springs, 
Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, Lexington, Buena Vista, Stuart, 
Rocky Mount, Bedford, Amherst, Martinsville, Danville, Lynchburg,
Appomattox, South Boston, Keysville, Bluefield, Flat Top, Hinton,
Hix, Union, Lewisburg, White Sulphur Springs, Alderson, Quinwood,
Duo, and Rainelle
407 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of North Carolina, Virginia, and southeast West 
  Virginia, including the following areas, in North Carolina, 
  Alleghany NC, Ashe, Caswell, Rockingham, Stokes, Surry, 
  Watauga, Wilkes, and Yadkin. In Virginia, Alleghany VA, 
  Amherst, Appomattox, Bath, Bedford, Bland, Botetourt, 
  Buckingham, Campbell, Carroll, Charlotte, Craig, Floyd, 
  Franklin, Giles, Grayson, Halifax, Henry, Montgomery, Patrick, 
  Pittsylvania, Pulaski, Roanoke, Rockbridge, Smyth, Tazewell, 
  and Wythe. In southeast West Virginia, Eastern Greenbrier, 
  Mercer, Monroe, Summers, and Western Greenbrier. 

* Through this evening

* Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is expected, some of this 
  rain occurring in a very short period of time. 

* Expect flash flooding in areas of torrential rainfall. 
  Flooding of small streams, creeks, and smaller rivers may 
  occur with little warning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
Remember...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

07
726 
WGUS61 KRNK 181501
FFARNK

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1101 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018

...Locally Heavy Rainfall Through This Evening...

.The combination of a weak stalled frontal boundary across our
region, and an area of low pressure laden with tropical moisture 
moving northward from the southern Appalachians, will bring 
periods of heavy showers and a few thunderstorms with torrential 
downpours to the central Mid- Atlantic states. Recent heavy rains
will enhance the flood threat. Additional rainfall of one to 
three inches is possible into tonight as bands of showers 
redevelop across the region. Some of this rain may occur in a 
very short period of time. Flooding of small streams, creeks, and 
smaller rivers may occur especially where heavier bands tend to 
train across the same area into this evening.


NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-182315-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-180519T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-
Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-
Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-
Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-
Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Dobson, Danbury, 
Eden, Yanceyville, Boone, Wilkesboro, Yadkinville, Tazewell, 
Marion, Bland, Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, 
Blacksburg, Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, Galax, 
Floyd, New Castle, Clifton Forge, Covington, Hot Springs, 
Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, Lexington, Buena Vista, Stuart, 
Rocky Mount, Bedford, Amherst, Martinsville, Danville, Lynchburg,
Appomattox, South Boston, Keysville, Bluefield, Flat Top, Hinton,
Hix, Union, Lewisburg, White Sulphur Springs, Alderson, Quinwood,
Duo, and Rainelle
1101 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of North Carolina, Virginia, and southeast West 
  Virginia, including the following areas, in North Carolina, 
  Alleghany NC, Ashe, Caswell, Rockingham, Stokes, Surry, 
  Watauga, Wilkes, and Yadkin. In Virginia, Alleghany VA, 
  Amherst, Appomattox, Bath, Bedford, Bland, Botetourt, 
  Buckingham, Campbell, Carroll, Charlotte, Craig, Floyd, 
  Franklin, Giles, Grayson, Halifax, Henry, Montgomery, Patrick, 
  Pittsylvania, Pulaski, Roanoke, Rockbridge, Smyth, Tazewell, 
  and Wythe. In southeast West Virginia, Eastern Greenbrier, 
  Mercer, Monroe, Summers, and Western Greenbrier. 

* Through this evening

* Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is expected, some of this 
  rain occurring in a very short period of time. 

* Expect flash flooding in areas of torrential rainfall. Flooding
  of small streams, creeks, and smaller rivers may occur.
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
Remember...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
864 
WGUS61 KRNK 181843
FFARNK

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
243 PM EDT Fri May 18 2018

...Locally Heavy Rainfall Into The Overnight...

.The combination of a weak stalled frontal boundary across our
region, and an area of low pressure laden with tropical moisture
moving northward from the southern Appalachians, will bring
periods of heavy showers and a few thunderstorms with torrential
downpours to the region into tonight. Recent heavy rains will 
enhance the flood threat. Additional rainfall of one to three 
inches is possible through the overnight as bands of showers 
redevelop across the region. Some of this rain may occur in a very
short period of time. Flooding of small streams, creeks, and 
smaller rivers may occur especially where heavier bands tend to 
train across the same area into tonight.


NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-190245-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-180519T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-
Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-
Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-
Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-
Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Dobson, Danbury, 
Eden, Yanceyville, Boone, Wilkesboro, Yadkinville, Tazewell, 
Marion, Bland, Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, 
Blacksburg, Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, Galax, 
Floyd, New Castle, Clifton Forge, Covington, Hot Springs, 
Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, Lexington, Buena Vista, Stuart, 
Rocky Mount, Bedford, Amherst, Martinsville, Danville, Lynchburg,
Appomattox, South Boston, Keysville, Bluefield, Flat Top, Hinton,
Hix, Union, Lewisburg, White Sulphur Springs, Alderson, Quinwood,
Duo, and Rainelle
243 PM EDT Fri May 18 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY 
MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for

* Portions of North Carolina, Virginia, and southeast West 
  Virginia, including the following areas, in North Carolina, 
  Alleghany NC, Ashe, Caswell, Rockingham, Stokes, Surry, 
  Watauga, Wilkes, and Yadkin. In Virginia, Alleghany VA, 
  Amherst, Appomattox, Bath, Bedford, Bland, Botetourt, 
  Buckingham, Campbell, Carroll, Charlotte, Craig, Floyd, 
  Franklin, Giles, Grayson, Halifax, Henry, Montgomery, Patrick, 
  Pittsylvania, Pulaski, Roanoke, Rockbridge, Smyth, Tazewell, 
  and Wythe. In southeast West Virginia, Eastern Greenbrier, 
  Mercer, Monroe, Summers, and Western Greenbrier. 

* Through early Saturday morning.

* Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is expected in spots, some
  of this rain occurring in a very short period of time. 

* Expect flash flooding in areas of torrential rainfall. Flooding
  of small streams, creeks, and smaller rivers may occur followed
  by mainstem river flooding by Saturday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
Remember...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
092 
WGUS61 KRNK 190125
FFARNK

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
925 PM EDT Fri May 18 2018

...Locally Heavy Rainfall Overnight...

.The combination of a weak stalled frontal boundary near the 
Virginia and North Carolina border with tropical moisture will 
bring periods of heavy showers and a few thunderstorms with 
torrential downpours to the region tonight. 

Much of the region was saturated from rainfall earlier in the
week. Any additional rainfall may cause flood or worsen flooding
that was already occurring. 

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-191200-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-180519T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-
Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-
Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-
Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-
Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Dobson, Danbury, 
Eden, Yanceyville, Boone, Wilkesboro, Yadkinville, Tazewell, 
Marion, Bland, Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, 
Blacksburg, Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, Galax, 
Floyd, New Castle, Clifton Forge, Covington, Hot Springs, 
Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, Lexington, Buena Vista, Stuart, 
Rocky Mount, Bedford, Amherst, Martinsville, Danville, Lynchburg,
Appomattox, South Boston, Keysville, Bluefield, Flat Top, Hinton,
Hix, Union, Lewisburg, White Sulphur Springs, Alderson, Quinwood,
Duo, and Rainelle
925 PM EDT Fri May 18 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of North Carolina, Virginia, and southeast West 
  Virginia, including the following areas, in North Carolina, 
  Alleghany NC, Ashe, Caswell, Rockingham, Stokes, Surry, 
  Watauga, Wilkes, and Yadkin. In Virginia, Alleghany VA, 
  Amherst, Appomattox, Bath, Bedford, Bland, Botetourt, 
  Buckingham, Campbell, Carroll, Charlotte, Craig, Floyd, 
  Franklin, Giles, Grayson, Halifax, Henry, Montgomery, Patrick, 
  Pittsylvania, Pulaski, Roanoke, Rockbridge, Smyth, Tazewell, 
  and Wythe. In southeast West Virginia, Eastern Greenbrier, 
  Mercer, Monroe, Summers, and Western Greenbrier. 

* Until 8 AM EDT Saturday

* Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is expected in spots, 
  some of this rain occurring in a very short period of time. 

* Expect flash flooding in areas of torrential rainfall. Flooding
  of small streams, creeks, and smaller rivers may occur. Flooding
  along the Dan River will also occur tonight. 

 Flash flooding was occurring in northwest North Carolina and
 across parts of southern Virginia, including Martinsville and
 Danville. Several Flash Flood and Areal Flood Warnings were in 
effect. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
Remember...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
605 
WGUS61 KRNK 190749
FFARNK

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
349 AM EDT Sat May 19 2018

...Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible...

.The combination of a weak stalled frontal boundary across the
region with tropical moisture will bring periods of heavy showers
and a few thunderstorms with torrential downpours.

Much of the region was saturated from rainfall earlier in the
week. Any additional rainfall may cause flood or worsen flooding
that was already occurring.

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-191600-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-180520T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Wilkes-Yadkin-Roanoke-Botetourt-
Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-
Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
Including the cities of Dobson, Danbury, Eden, Yanceyville, 
Wilkesboro, Yadkinville, Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, Lexington, 
Buena Vista, Stuart, Rocky Mount, Bedford, Amherst, Martinsville,
Danville, Lynchburg, Appomattox, South Boston, and Keysville
349 AM EDT Sat May 19 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for

* Portions of North Carolina and Virginia, including the 
  following areas, in North Carolina, Caswell, Rockingham, 
  Stokes, Surry, Wilkes, and Yadkin. In Virginia, Amherst, 
  Appomattox, Bedford, Botetourt, Buckingham, Campbell, 
  Charlotte, Franklin, Halifax, Henry, Patrick, Pittsylvania, 
  Roanoke, and Rockbridge. 

* Through this evening

* Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is expected in spots, 
  some of this rain occurring in a very short period of time. 

* Expect flash flooding in areas of torrential rainfall. Flooding
  of small streams, creeks, and smaller rivers may occur. Flooding
  along the Dan River will also occur today. 



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
Remember...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>020-WVZ042>044-507-508-191200-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-180519T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-
Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-
Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Boone, Tazewell, 
Marion, Bland, Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, 
Blacksburg, Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, Galax, 
Floyd, New Castle, Clifton Forge, Covington, Hot Springs, 
Bluefield, Flat Top, Hinton, Hix, Union, Lewisburg, 
White Sulphur Springs, Alderson, Quinwood, Duo, and Rainelle
349 AM EDT Sat May 19 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of northwest North Carolina, Virginia, and southeast 
  West Virginia, including the following areas, in northwest 
  North Carolina, Alleghany NC, Ashe, and Watauga. In Virginia, 
  Alleghany VA, Bath, Bland, Carroll, Craig, Floyd, Giles, 
  Grayson, Montgomery, Pulaski, Smyth, Tazewell, and Wythe. In 
  southeast West Virginia, Eastern Greenbrier, Mercer, Monroe, 
  Summers, and Western Greenbrier. 

* Until 8 AM EDT this morning

* Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is expected in spots, 
  some of this rain occurring in a very short period of time. 

* Expect flash flooding in areas of torrential rainfall. Flooding
  of small streams, creeks, and smaller rivers may occur. 
 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
Remember...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
815 
WGUS61 KRNK 191202
FFARNK

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
802 AM EDT Sat May 19 2018

...Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible...

.The combination of a weak stalled frontal boundary across the
region with tropical moisture will bring periods of heavy showers
and a few thunderstorms with torrential downpours.

Much of the region was saturated from rainfall earlier in the
week. Any additional rainfall may cause flood or worsen flooding
that was already occurring.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>020-WVZ042>044-507-508-191315-
/O.EXP.KRNK.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-180519T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-
Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-
Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Boone, Tazewell, 
Marion, Bland, Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, 
Blacksburg, Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, Galax, 
Floyd, New Castle, Clifton Forge, Covington, Hot Springs, 
Bluefield, Flat Top, Hinton, Hix, Union, Lewisburg, 
White Sulphur Springs, Alderson, Quinwood, Duo, and Rainelle
802 AM EDT Sat May 19 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS EXPIRED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of northwest North Carolina,
Virginia, and southeast West Virginia has expired. 

$$

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-192015-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-180520T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Wilkes-Yadkin-Roanoke-Botetourt-
Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-
Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
Including the cities of Dobson, Danbury, Eden, Yanceyville, 
Wilkesboro, Yadkinville, Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, Lexington, 
Buena Vista, Stuart, Rocky Mount, Bedford, Amherst, Martinsville,
Danville, Lynchburg, Appomattox, South Boston, and Keysville
802 AM EDT Sat May 19 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of North Carolina and Virginia, including the 
  following areas, in North Carolina, Caswell, Rockingham, 
  Stokes, Surry, Wilkes, and Yadkin. In Virginia, Amherst, 
  Appomattox, Bedford, Botetourt, Buckingham, Campbell, 
  Charlotte, Franklin, Halifax, Henry, Patrick, Pittsylvania, 
  Roanoke, and Rockbridge. 

* Through this evening.

* Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is expected in spots, 
  some of this rain occurring in a very short period of time. 

* Expect flash flooding in areas of torrential rainfall. 
  Flooding of small streams, creeks, and smaller rivers may 
  occur. Flooding along the Dan River will also occur today. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
Remember...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
994 
WGUS61 KRNK 191844
FFARNK

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
244 PM EDT Sat May 19 2018

...Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible...

.The combination of a weak stalled frontal boundary across the
region with tropical moisture will bring periods of heavy showers
and a few thunderstorms with torrential downpours.

Much of the region was saturated from rainfall earlier in the
week. Any additional rainfall may cause flood or worsen flooding
that was already occurring.

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-200400-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-180520T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Wilkes-Yadkin-Roanoke-Botetourt-
Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-
Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
Including the cities of Dobson, Danbury, Eden, Yanceyville, 
Wilkesboro, Yadkinville, Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, Lexington, 
Buena Vista, Stuart, Rocky Mount, Bedford, Amherst, Martinsville,
Danville, Lynchburg, Appomattox, South Boston, and Keysville
244 PM EDT Sat May 19 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of North Carolina and Virginia, including the 
  following areas, in North Carolina, Caswell, Rockingham, 
  Stokes, Surry, Wilkes, and Yadkin. In Virginia, Amherst, 
  Appomattox, Bedford, Botetourt, Buckingham, Campbell, 
  Charlotte, Franklin, Halifax, Henry, Patrick, Pittsylvania, 
  Roanoke, and Rockbridge. 

* Until midnight EDT tonight

* Additional rainfall up to an inch, with localized higher amounts 
  is expected in spots, some of this rain occurring in a very 
  short period of time. 

* Expect flash flooding in areas of torrential rainfall. Flooding
  of small streams, creeks, and smaller rivers may occur. Flooding
  along the Dan and Roanoke River will continue to occur into the
  evening. 
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
Remember...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
668 
WGUS61 KRNK 200414
FFARNK

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1214 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018


NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-200515-
/O.EXP.KRNK.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-180520T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Wilkes-Yadkin-Roanoke-Botetourt-
Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-
Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
Including the cities of Dobson, Danbury, Eden, Yanceyville, 
Wilkesboro, Yadkinville, Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, Lexington, 
Buena Vista, Stuart, Rocky Mount, Bedford, Amherst, Martinsville,
Danville, Lynchburg, Appomattox, South Boston, and Keysville
1214 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS EXPIRED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of North Carolina and Virginia
has expired. Isolated pockets of heavy rain will continue for the
next hour or two. The threat for widespread flash flooding has 
ended tonight. Please continue to monitor for river flood warnings
and localized flooding problems and heed remaining road closures.


$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at May 17, 1:55 AM EDT, 2 hours 18 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 17, 1:55 AM EDT, 2 hours 18 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
155 AM EDT Thu May 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front across the region will remain about stationary
through the end of the week. Low pressure lifting north into the
Tennessee Valley will combine with the stalled boundary to bring
periodic rounds of showers and storms into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 905 PM EDT Wednesday...

Bands/clusters of heavy rain producing convection continue to
lift north across parts of the region this evening within a very
tropical environment aided by deep south/southwest flow. Latest
analysis also showing enough leftover instability combined with
the moisture to likely result in lingering showers espcly
south/east where old outflow resides. Short term models finally
show things diminishing after midnight as an initial wave
passes to the north and in advance of the next feature well to
the south. However given the degree of moisture around per GSO
PWAT of better than 1.5 inches, would expect some showers to
linger, so leaving in likely pops although may become quite
scattered/isolated late as suggested by the HRRR and several
other solutions. Therefore will hold off on any watches at this
point since expecting some decrease in bands overnight with loss
of heating and uncertainty with where localized heavier rain
may occur. Otherwise just some adjusts to short term pops/QPF
with muggy lows in the 60s on track overnight.

Previous discussion as of 400 PM EDT Wednesday...

The main focus through Thursday will be quasi-stationary front
to our north and subtropical low lifting north into the southern
Appalachians from the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Airmass south of
the front and covering the entire southeast CONUS is more
indicative of August as opposed to May with PWATs 2 standard
deviations above normal. As such, showers and thunderstorms
which occur within this environment will be very rain efficient.

For our forecast area, anticipate numerous to widespread
showers. CAPE has been limited to generally 1000 j/kg or less,
so nothing severe, but lack of a cap has allowed for showers to
bubble up all over the CWA... more of a shotgun pattern but
nothing organized. Since the front is well north of the area,
not much to focus the heavy rain, so no need for a flood watch
attm, but may need to consider possibility of headline pending
track of subtropical low as it lifts north into the southern
Appalachians Thursday. Until then will entertain occasional
showers with embedded thunderstorms with brief heavy downpours.

Temperatures/dewpoints will remain summerlike with overnight
lows above 60 coinciding with the August-like dewpoints.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 AM EDT Wednesday...

The portion of the forecast is continuing to offer wet conditions
across the region. From Thursday night through Saturday, an upper
level area of low pressure will make gradual progress from western
TN to Wisconsin. Saturday night, the low will open into a wave and
start to be transported eastward as it reaches the northern jet. Its
associated trough axis will still be extending south into eastern
KY. This trough axis will cross our region Saturday night. On the
east side of this low/trough, southerly, moisture-rich flow of air
will be streaming across our area with its origins off the eastern
Gulf of Mexico. It will be this moisture that will allow for a very
generous coverage of moderate to heavy rain showers to cross our
region during this time period, along with some isolated to
scattered thunderstorms, especially during the late afternoon and
evening hours.

We will be monitoring precipitation patterns and amounts as we
progress into this time period. This will help us gauge where and/or
if any flood watches may need to be posted. The first time period of
increased focus will be Thursday into Thursday night. WPC currently
has posted a slight chance for excessive rainfall during this time
period.

Temperatures during this portion of the forecast are expected to
average about five degrees above normal. Low will range from the low
to mid 60s across the mountains with mid 60s to near 70 across the
Piedmont. High temperatures are forecast in the the mid to upper 70s
across the mountains with upper 70s to around 80 across the Piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
By Sunday, the upper low/trough that has been impacting our weather
pattern the past several days, will be far enough north to be caught
up by the northern jet, and heading eastward towards New England.

This will return our region to a flow that initially will be
predominately westerly, all while another baroclinic zone
establishes itself along or near the Ohio River Valley by Monday
evening. Concurrently, an upper high in the western Atlantic, east
of GA/FA will hold fast, and anti-cyclonic flow around this feature
will keep a decent fetch of moisture into our region at the lower
levels.

By Wednesday, the front to our north is expected to have trended
farther south to over, or just north of our region.

The result of the above scenario will be a weather pattern that will
still have daily chances of showers and some thunderstorms. On
average, chances will be greatest during the afternoon hours during
the peak heating of the day. Chances will also on average increase
by mid-week as the frontal boundary gets closer to, or overhead of,
the area.

Temperatures across the region will begin this portion of the
forecast averaging five to ten degrees above normal. While a slight
cooling trend is expected, by Wednesday, temperatures will still be
averaging five degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 AM EDT Thursday...

Generally marginal to poor aviation conditions will continue
through the TAF valid period as a pseudo-tropical area of low
pressure tracks north through the southeast states and into the
southern Appalachians and the eastern TN valley. The low
pressure area will combine with a stationary front across the
northern part of the area keeping widespread low clouds, areas
of fog, rain showers, and a few thunderstorms in the forecast
for the next several days. As the core of the remnant low
pressure area tracks north through the region tonight and early
Friday, that is when the best coverage of rainfall, lowest
ceilings, and lowest visibilities are expected overall. This
applied pretty much to the entire forecast area, however
ceilings and visibilities will tend to be lower across areas
west of the Blue Ridge and especially through the higher terrain
where ceilings and visibilities could be LIFR through much of
the TAF valid period. Periods of MVFR to low end VFR will be
most likely across the Piedmont during the late morning into the
early evening before deterioriating to MVFR or worse there as
well.

Winds are expected to be light southeast 3-5 mph through most of
the day veering more to light southwest overnight into early
Friday. Speeds remaining 5kts or less through most of the TAF
valid period.

Medium confidence in ceilings and visibilities through the TAF
valid period.
High confidence in wind speed, medium to high confidence in wind
direction through the TAF valid period.
Low to medium confidence on thunderstorm potential through the
period.

.Extended Aviation Discussion...

The pseudo-tropical low and the lingering frontal boundary will
begin to drift north of the CWA Friday and especially into the
weekend. This should bring about a slight decrease in rain
coverage Friday with activity trending more scattered and
diurnal in nature as we go into the weekend and high pressure
ridging is noted across the southeast states. However, still
feel that chances for showers/thunderstorms and associated
aviation issues will be greater than normal for this time of the
year, at least through Saturday with periods of sub-VFR
possible. Fog and low clouds will be common during the late
night and early morning hours as well. After more isolated
storms on Sunday, appears another weak cold front may bring
increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms again on
Monday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/PM/RAB
Hazardous weather outlook, May 16, 11:20 PM EDT, 4 hours 53 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1120 PM EDT Wed May 16 2018

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-180330-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
1120 PM EDT Wed May 16 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday through
Friday as an area of low pressure moves north through the region.
Heavy rainfall is expected to be a bit more widespread than in
previous days. A Flood or Flash Flood Watch may be needed for this
period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Blacksburg, VA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 17, 6:08 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningRNKMonroe, Summers6 hr
May 17, 4:56 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningRNKHalifax5 hr
May 17, 6:55 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryRNKBuckingham6 hr
May 17, 7:02 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningRNKRoanoke, City of Roanoke, City of Salem6 hr
May 17, 5:40 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryRNKWilkes4 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Watches in Virginia, 2018Flash Flood Watches in North Carolina, 2018Flash Flood Watches in West Virginia, 2018Every flash flood watch in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.