Alert archive / Virginia / Flash Flood Warnings in 2018

Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS Blacksburg, VA

May 27, 2018Roanoke County, City of Roanoke, City of Salem, Virginia

NWS Blacksburg, VA issued this flash flood warning at May 27, 2018, 3:53 PM EDT for Roanoke County, City of Roanoke, City of Salem, Virginia. It was in force for 6 hr. 3 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
May 27, 2018, 3:53 PM EDT (19:53 UTC)
Expired
May 27, 2018, 9:45 PM EDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
NWS Blacksburg, VA
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

Counties City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, Roanoke County, VA

The radar

The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 39 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
May 27, 4:37 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD4 Sw Roanoke, VAGARST MILL PARK COMPLETELY INUNDATED BY MUD LICK CREEK
May 27, 5:00 PM EDTFLASH FLOODCave Spring, VAMULTIPLE REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING, ROADS CLOSED OR WASHED AWAY, HOUSES FLOODED, ECT. MOST REPORTS OCCURRED BETWEEN AT 330 PM THROUGH 600 PM.
May 27, 5:17 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD3 Sw Roanoke, VAEXTENSIVE FLOODING ALONG GRANDIN AND GARST MILL ROADS. MANY HOUSES FLOODED.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 3 storm reports to this flash flood warning; the first came 44 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 44 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Roanoke, VA at 12:00Z on 2018-05-27Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 64 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Roanoke, VA at 12:00Z on 2018-05-27The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -11 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
64 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-94 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
898 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
19 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-11 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
22 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

222 
WGUS51 KRNK 271953
FFWRNK
VAC161-770-775-280145-
/O.NEW.KRNK.FF.W.0031.180527T1953Z-180528T0145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
353 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2018

The National Weather Service in BLACKSBURG has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Central Roanoke County in west central Virginia...
  The City of Salem in west central Virginia...
  The City of Roanoke in west central Virginia...

* Until 945 PM EDT

* At 352 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
  heavy rain across the warned area. Over two inches of rain have 
  already fallen in some areas. Flash flooding is expected to begin 
  shortly.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Roanoke...
  Salem...
  Vinton...
  Hollins...
  Cave Spring...
  and Poages Mill.

Additional rainfall amounts of over two inches are possible in the 
warned area.

This includes The following Locations The Salem Fairgrounds and
Roanoke Regional Airport.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding,
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather Service
by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and
pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3735 7992 3722 7988 3717 8013 3728 8014
      3736 7994

$$

JR
6 follow-up statements
314 
WGUS71 KRNK 272030
FFSRNK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
430 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2018

VAC161-770-775-280145-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.W.0031.000000T0000Z-180528T0145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Roanoke VA-City of Salem VA-City of Roanoke VA-
430 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM EDT FOR 
CENTRAL ROANOKE ...THE CITY OF SALEM AND THE CITY OF ROANOKE...

At 425 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. 3 or more inches of rain have fallen in 
the past two hours or so.  Flash flooding has been reported 
within the warned area with cars and road flooded.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Roanoke...
Salem...
Vinton...
Hollins...
and Poages Mill.

This includes the Cave Spring where the heaviest rain has fallen.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1 or more inches are possible in the 
warned area although the heaviest rain is shifting slowly south.

Flooding in the Mudlick Creek basin is expected to especially severe.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding,
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather Service
by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and
pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3735 7992 3722 7988 3717 8013 3728 8014
      3736 7994

$$

PC
105 
WGUS71 KRNK 272102
FFSRNK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
502 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2018

VAC161-770-775-280145-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.W.0031.000000T0000Z-180528T0145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Roanoke VA-City of Salem VA-City of Roanoke VA-
502 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM EDT FOR 
CENTRAL ROANOKE ...THE CITY OF SALEM AND THE CITY OF ROANOKE...

At 455 PM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated 
thunderstorms producing heavy rain over the warned area. Doppler 
radar estimates rainfall of up to 6 inches in the past 3 hours have 
fallen in the Cave Spring area of Roanoke County.

Numerous reports of flash flooding has been received especially in 
the Cave Spring area.

Mudlick Creek continues to be of serious concern as the main runoff 
is into that stream basin. Expect very large rises on this stream 
and dangerous flash flooding.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Cave Spring...Roanoke... Salem...Vinton... Hollins...
and Poages Mill.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1 inch or more are possible in the 
warned area.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
Paint Bank Branch...
Gish Branch...
Carvin Creek...
Horners Branch...
and Murray Run.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding,
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather Service
by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and
pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3735 7992 3722 7988 3717 8013 3728 8014
      3736 7994

$$

PC
083 
WGUS71 KRNK 272158
FFSRNK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
558 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2018

VAC161-770-775-280145-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.W.0031.000000T0000Z-180528T0145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Roanoke VA-City of Salem VA-City of Roanoke VA-
558 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM EDT FOR 
CENTRAL ROANOKE ...THE CITY OF SALEM AND THE CITY OF ROANOKE...

At 545 PM EDT, emergency management and spotters reported flash 
flooding in numerous locations in the Cave Spring area of Roanoke 
County. The maximum radar-estimated rainfall was 5 to 6 inches in 
about a 3 hour period from 2 to 5 PM falling mainly over the upper 
portions of Mudlick Creek basin. Flash flooding is already occurring 
but rainfall rates have diminished considerably and should continue 
to lessen.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Cave Spring...
Roanoke...
Salem...
Vinton...
Hollins...
and Poages Mill.

The worst of the rain is over but additional rainfall amounts of up 
to 0.25 inches are possible in the warned area and flooding will 
persist as the runoff continues.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
Paint Bank Branch...
Gish Branch...
Carvin Creek...
Horners Branch...
and Murray Run.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding,
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather Service
by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and
pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3735 7992 3722 7988 3717 8013 3728 8014
      3736 7994

$$

PC
525 
WGUS71 KRNK 272328
FFSRNK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
728 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2018

VAC161-770-775-280145-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.W.0031.000000T0000Z-180528T0145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Roanoke VA-City of Salem VA-City of Roanoke VA-
728 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM EDT FOR 
CENTRAL ROANOKE ...THE CITY OF SALEM AND THE CITY OF ROANOKE...

At 718 PM EDT, numerous reports of flash flooding in the Cave Spring 
area of Roanoke County area were received earlier this evening with 
ongoing issues including several evacuations mainly along Mudlick 
Creek in Roanoke City. 

NWS Doppler radar estimated that 4 to 6 inches of rain fell in about 
3 hours and a rain gage report of 4.69 inches near Bent Mountain was 
received.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Roanoke...
Salem...
Vinton...
Hollins...
and Poages Mill.

Very little additional rainfall is expected this evening but runoff 
will continue for several more hours along Mudlick Creek. Hydrologic 
models indicate that the rate of runoff into the creek is declining.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding,
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather Service
by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and
pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3735 7992 3722 7988 3717 8013 3728 8014
      3736 7994

$$

PC
852 
WGUS71 KRNK 280042
FFSRNK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
842 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2018

VAC161-770-775-280145-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.W.0031.000000T0000Z-180528T0145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Roanoke VA-City of Salem VA-City of Roanoke VA-
842 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM EDT FOR 
CENTRAL ROANOKE ...THE CITY OF SALEM AND THE CITY OF ROANOKE...

At 835 PM EDT, numerous reports of flash flooding in the Cave Spring 
area of Roanoke County area were received earlier this evening with 
ongoing issues including several evacuations mainly along Mudlick 
Creek in Roanoke City.

NWS Doppler radar estimated that 4 to 6 inches of rain fell in about 
3 hours and a rain gage report of 4.69 inches near Bent Mountain was 
received.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Roanoke...
Salem...
Vinton...
Hollins...
and Poages Mill.

Doppler radar is indicating that an additional round of showers and 
thunderstorms are developing in and around the warned area. These 
storms could produce one to two more inches of rain in the next 
hour. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding,
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather Service
by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and
pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3735 7992 3722 7988 3717 8013 3728 8014
      3736 7994

$$

JR
317 
WGUS71 KRNK 280155
FFSRNK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
955 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2018

VAC161-770-775-280203-
/O.EXP.KRNK.FF.W.0031.000000T0000Z-180528T0145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Roanoke VA-City of Salem VA-City of Roanoke VA-
955 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR 
CENTRAL ROANOKE ...THE CITY OF SALEM AND THE CITY OF ROANOKE HAS
EXPIRED...

The heavy rain has ended. Portions of this warning have been 
replaced by an areal flood warning for the next couple of hours. 
Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding,
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather Service
by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and
pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.

LAT...LON 3735 7992 3722 7988 3717 8013 3728 8014
      3736 7994

$$

JR

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at May 27, 3:40 PM EDT, 13 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 27, 3:40 PM EDT, 13 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
340 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered offshore will maintain a moist southerly
flow of air into the region for the next several days. Subtropical
Storm Alberto moving into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend will
move ashore and into the lower Mississippi Valley early in the
week. Tropical moisture will stream north into the region
making for very rain efficient showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 340 PM EDT Sunday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have formed in the moist
unstable air across our region with the better coverage across the
higher terrain and along the Blue Ridge. Ample insolation has
allowed MLCAPE values to climb to around 1500 to 3000 J/KG. The
combination of upper trough over the northern Mid-Atlantic and
tropical moisture streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico has
resulted in a convergence axis along or north of our CWA border.

With healthy PWATS, these storms will be very rain efficient rain
producers. The HRRR and HiresW-ARW-East indicated that the greatest
convection concentration will occur cross the northern half of our
forecast area. The NAM and RAP generates precipitation across the
entire forecast area. The GFS and ECMWF showers widespread storms
with the heaviest north of our forecast area. The excessive rain
fall had marginal potential across the entire forecast area with
slight chance to our northeast across Washington area. We will need
to watch for flooding issues across entire forecast area with deeper
convection or training. The good news is that the storm motion is
faster today around 15 knots compared to yesterday. One weak spots
will be Tazewell county where some rain gages reporting 2-3 inch
amounts Saturday. Attm will hold off on a Flash Flood Watch. Prefer
to see where convergence boundaries will line-up and target those
areas of high confidence as opposed to blanketing a larger piece of
real estate. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 50s
in the mountains to the mid 60s in the piedmont.

Refer to the latest advisories from NHC on Alberto for track
and its movement. Alberto comes ashore Monday morning and
continues moving northward into southern Alabama by Monday
evening. The flooding potential for Monday will depend on how
much rainfall is accumulated from several days of locally heavy
tropical rainfall and where the deeper convection forms. The
greatest chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday will occur
across southern portions of the forecast area. Decided to
mention the rain could be heavy at times in the south. The Day
Two excessive rainfall showed a sharp gradient with a slight
chance to our south across North Carolina. Both the GFS and
ECMWF showed richer moisture try to push into the southern edge
of our forecast area before translating east to the coast. High
temperatures on Monday will vary for around 70 degrees in the
mountains to the upper 70s in the east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...

NHC forecasts bring Alberto ashore Monday morning and continues the
center on a NNW track into southern Alabama by Monday evening while
weakening the system to a tropical depression by Tuesday morning
over north central Alabama. Forward speed then increases as the NNW
track continues with the depression in southern Indiana by Wednesday
morning and Michigan by Thursday morning. Our forecast area will
remain in deep southerly flow through this entire period with
extremely high moisture for late May. The 12z/27 RNK sounding PWAT
of 1.42 inches is near 'all-time' high for the date (1995-2014 SPC
climatology) and chances are very good that this type of moisture
remains over the region for next few days and beyond. As mentioned
in previous discussions the forecast NAEFS anomalies for PWAT are 2
to 2.5 standard deviations above normal through much of the week.
Bottom line is any showers that develop are will be efficient rain
producers and storms that lingers over a particular location or
small basin more than about 1-2 hours are liable to produce minor
flooding and 2-3 hours could initiate flash flooding. Day 3
Excessive rainfall outlook from WPC shows Slight Risk (10-20 percent
chance)for exceeding flash flood guidance 12z Tuesday through 12z
Wednesday. This does not provide much confidence in issuing a Flash
Flood Watch given the lack of focus and the shotgun pattern of flash
flood guidance (FFG) in place across our region. 3-hour FFG ranges
generally from 1.5 to 3.0 inches with the lower guidance mainly in
the mountains. Will hold off on a Flood/Flash Watch as the pattern
is too diffuse in terms of timing and location. A short-fused Watch
targeted to developing organized convection may make more sense than
what could be a 3-day (or longer) Watch.  As Alberto lifts into the
Tennessee Valley late Tuesday into Wednesday a Marginal Risk for
Severe will exist with the possibility for isolated tornadoes in the
northeast quadrant of the weakening system as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

A generally wet pattern is expected to continue late week into next
weekend as the remains of Alberto lift northward into the northern
Great Lakes. But then the forecast becomes interesting as 12z/27 GFS
shows intense upper low over the western North Atlantic blocked by
ridging south of Greenland. This forces the upper low over the Great
Lakes back to the southeast with a broad area of low pressure over
the Mid-Atlantic that deepens with time over VA/NC area providing
continued chances for rainfall. The 00z/27 ECMWF shows similar
longwave pattern with the Greenland block but develops surface low
pressure somewhat further north and east, while 12z/27 CMC closer to
GFS. Obviously pattern details cannot be descried with any real
confidence at this range but the pattern certainly fits the
definition of 'unsettled' through the extended period. Used mainly
Super blend for the grids during this time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Sunday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing in the moist
unstable air especially over the higher terrain this afternoon.
These storms will be very rain efficient due to the high
moisture content of the air. Areas of MVFR cigs will
continue this afternoon into tonight with pockets IFR/LIFR
in convection and low clouds.

Areas of fog and low clouds will develop overnight into
Monday morning. Morning fog and low clouds will mix out or
dissipate by mid morning leaving MVFR/VFR conditions
into Monday afternoon. Outside of thunderstorms , winds will
generally be light and variable or calm through the forecast
period.

Medium confidence in ceilings, visibilities and winds
during the taf period.

.Extended Aviation Discussion...

Wet pattern anticipated through the upcoming week with periods
of at least diurnally driven sub-VFR conditions associated with
deep convection. Moist low level southerly winds will also favor
lower layers of cloudiness at night, especially along the spine
of the Appalachians with potential for both MVFR Cigs and early
morning MVFR visibilities from mist/haze. The tropical system
over the Gulf of Mexico may begin to impact the region mid-week.
The unsettled weather with showers and thunderstorms may
continue into the end of the week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 315 PM Sunday...

Significant focus in hydro concerns as discussed in portion of the
Near, Short and Long term discussions above. Alberto and associated
effects will be with us through the upcoming week in one form or
another. The question of Flood or Flash Flood Watches will be with
us during much of this time period as mentioned earlier but the
notion of holding onto what could be a very long-fused Watch seems
almost counter to producing real awareness of any flood threat.
There may be opportunities for more short-fused Flash Flood Watches
tied to a more discernible threat such as banded features or
persistent clusters of storms. That said, the ground is fairly
saturated in many places but as noted above very erratic coverage.
River flooding cannot be discounted especially on smaller fast-
reacting streams such as the upper Roanoke, Watauga, or even
something like Mason Creek. All basins will have to be monitored
closely. The latest MMEFS ensembles, mostly from 00z/27 or 06z/27
are painting some a somewhat less robust response on the bigger
rivers than the previous set of runs with minor to moderate flooding
generally in the 30 percent or less chance in most large river
basins. The experience with MMEFS has been that is tends to overdo
the probabilities of reaching high stages at these extended
forecast time periods. Still, the Dan River basin once again
under the highest threat for flooding but that would be a late
week time frame.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio, All Hazards, WZ2500 at Wytheville, VA,
broadcasting on a frequency of 162.45 mHz has been fixed.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KK/PM
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...KK/PM
HYDROLOGY...PC
EQUIPMENT...DS/KK
Hazardous weather outlook, May 27, 3:48 PM EDT, 5 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
348 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-282000-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
348 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Localized excessive rainfall is possible this afternoon and evening.
Rainfall which exceeds 2 inches in an hour may cause flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Showers and thunderstorms will be very rain efficient this week with
the potential for small stream and poor drainage flooding. In
addition, the tropical system emanating from the Eastern Gulf of
Mexico may have impacts with respect to rainfall amounts and
potential flooding Monday through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 27, 2:31 PM EDT, 1 hour 22 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
231 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2018

VAZ023-034-271900-
Botetourt-Bedford-
231 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN BEDFORD AND
SOUTHEASTERN BOTETOURT COUNTIES...

Until 300 PM EDT

At 230 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Montvale,
moving east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Montvale...
Peaks Of Otter Recreation Area...
Peaks Of Otter Summit...
and Blue Ridge.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3736 7980 3744 7982 3754 7958 3737 7956
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 254DEG 18KT 3743 7975

DS
Special weather statement, May 27, 2:43 PM EDT, 1 hour 10 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
243 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2018

VAZ034-271915-
Bedford-
243 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL BEDFORD COUNTY...

Until 315 PM EDT

At 242 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Chamblissburg,
moving northeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Chamblissburg...
and Thaxton.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3721 7962 3725 7973 3736 7965 3729 7950
TIME...MOT...LOC 1842Z 225DEG 11KT 3725 7966

DS
Special weather statement, May 27, 2:53 PM EDT, 1 hour before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
253 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2018

VAZ022-271930-
Roanoke-
253 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ROANOKE ...THE
SOUTHEASTERN CITY OF SALEM AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CITY OF ROANOKE...

Until 330 PM EDT

At 253 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Poages Mill,
moving northeast at 5 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Roanoke...
Salem...
Poages Mill...
and Cave Spring.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3720 8005 3723 8007 3728 8002 3722 7996
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 240DEG 6KT 3723 8005

DS
Special weather statement, May 27, 3:28 PM EDT, 25 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
328 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2018

VAZ013-014-272000-
Pulaski-Montgomery-
328 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN PULASKI AND WEST
CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTIES AND THE NORTHEASTERN CITY OF RADFORD...

Until 400 PM EDT

At 328 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Fairlawn,
moving northeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Radford...
Prices Fork...
Fairlawn...
Walton...
and Merrimac.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3712 8056 3717 8062 3723 8050 3719 8043
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 234DEG 12KT 3715 8056

DS
Special weather statement, May 27, 3:34 PM EDT, 19 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
334 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2018

VAZ014-272000-
Montgomery-
334 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL MONTGOMERY
COUNTY...

Until 400 PM EDT

At 332 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was developing near Shawsville,
moving northeast at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm as it continues to intensify.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of
east central Montgomery County.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3717 8033 3719 8036 3725 8029 3720 8024
TIME...MOT...LOC 1932Z 237DEG 7KT 3719 8034

DS
Special weather statement, May 27, 3:48 PM EDT, 5 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
348 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2018

VAZ022-272015-
Roanoke-
348 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ROANOKE ...THE CITY OF
SALEM AND THE CITY OF ROANOKE...

Until 415 PM EDT

At 347 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Poages Mill,
moving northeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Roanoke...
Salem...
Poages Mill...
Cave Spring...
and Hollins.

This includes The following Location The Salem Fairgrounds.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3719 8006 3721 8011 3726 8006 3729 8011
      3732 8004 3733 7997 3731 7987 3728 7992
      3725 7990 3721 7995 3723 7998
TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 220DEG 12KT 3722 8007

DS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Blacksburg, VA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 26, 8:25 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRNKHalifax35 min
May 26, 8:59 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRNKCharlotte31 min
May 26, 11:18 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRNKHalifax57 min
May 27, 12:15 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryRNKHalifax75 min
May 27, 1:42 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryRNKBotetourt, Craig6 hr
May 27, 2:31 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRNKBotetourt29 min
May 27, 2:43 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRNKBedford32 min
May 27, 2:53 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRNKCity of Salem37 min
May 27, 3:28 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryRNKRoanoke, City of Roanoke, City of Salem3 hr
May 27, 3:28 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRNKCity of Radford32 min
May 27, 3:34 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRNKMontgomery26 min
May 27, 3:48 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRNKCity of Roanoke, City of Salem27 min
May 27, 4:08 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRNKSmyth37 min
May 27, 4:18 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRNKCity of Roanoke27 min
May 27, 6:15 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRNKAppomattox, Buckingham60 min
May 27, 7:20 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryRNKAmherst, Appomattox, Buckingham, City of Lynchburg3 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Virginia, 2018Every flash flood warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.