Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Blacksburg, VA

145 
WGUS71 KRNK 152031
FFSRNK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
431 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

VAC023-161-770-775-160000-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-180516T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Roanoke VA-City of Salem VA-City of Roanoke VA-Botetourt VA-
431 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR 
NORTHEASTERN ROANOKE AND SOUTHWESTERN BOTETOURT COUNTIES...THE CITY
OF SALEM AND THE CITY OF ROANOKE...

At 428 PM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated 
thunderstorms producing heavy rain over the warned area although 
rain rates have diminished considerably. One to two inches of rain 
have already fallen across parts of north Roanoke according to 
several automated rain gauges.

Additional rainfall amounts of up to a half inch are possible in the 
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as
well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding,
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather Service
by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and
pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3740 7982 3733 7983 3731 7985 3730 7984
      3729 7985 3727 7986 3724 7984 3722 7985
      3722 7987 3721 7988 3724 8013 3731 8012
      3738 8008

$$

PC

957 
WGUS71 KRNK 152123
FFSRNK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
523 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

VAC023-161-770-775-152132-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-180516T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Roanoke VA-City of Salem VA-City of Roanoke VA-Botetourt VA-
523 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR 
NORTHEASTERN ROANOKE AND SOUTHWESTERN BOTETOURT COUNTIES...THE CITY
OF SALEM AND THE CITY OF ROANOKE IS CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding,
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather Service
by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and
pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.

LAT...LON 3740 7982 3733 7983 3731 7985 3730 7984
      3729 7985 3727 7986 3724 7984 3722 7985
      3722 7987 3721 7988 3724 8013 3731 8012
      3738 8008

$$

JH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
301 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will remain just over the Mid Atlantic region
and Ohio Valley for the rest of the week. Tropical moisture
will intersect this boundary resulting in daily showers and
thunderstorms through at least Friday. Temperatures will stay
above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Tuesday...

Thunderstorms have initiated due to orographic forcing in a
moist unstable environment. Expect terrain and outflow
interaction to be dominant factors affecting movement and
propagation of storms. Expect locally heavy rain from any storms
and a marginal threat for severe weather especially from I-64
northward. There looks to be enough forcing from weak short wave
energy in the juicy airmass to keep showers stewing around
overnight especially from the mountains of NC up through the
Shenadoah valley.

Approach of low pressure in tropical airmass will keep a good
chance for showers and thunderstorms across the region again
tomorrow, though greater coverage and increased cloud cover
will limit instability a bit and significant shear will remain
absent.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM EDT Tuesday...

This portion of the forecast period is shaping up to one
characterized by frequent, and potentially heavy, rainfall. The
baroclinic zone that is currently north of our region will gradually
move southward and be positioned over our region. Concurrent to this
event, we expect a very strong and moist flow off the eastern
portion of the Gulf of Mexico. This flow will maintain itself
through Friday on the east side of an upper low that is progged to
move north from the panhandle of Florida to central Kentucky. This
persistent flow crossing the baroclinic zone almost on an orthogonal
angle will help to maximize rainfall across the area. We will need to
monitor on a daily basis how much rain has fallen in comparison with
the various flash flood guidance to assess any need for flash flood
watches and/or warnings.

Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will average about
five degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 309 PM EDT Monday...

The weekend will start with a upper level low positioned across
IL/IN/OH.  The generous southerly stream of moisture that was over
the area Thursday and Friday, will continue to hold fast for
Saturday as well. Look for scattered to likely coverage showers and
storms across the area again, with the potential again for some
locally heavy rain.

The activity will wane Saturday night with the loss of daytime
heating, plus the best upper level dynamics will weaken as the upper
low opens up, and gets ejected northeast in advance of an
approaching cold front.

On Sunday, the approaching cold front will still be upstream of the
region, but a continuation of a moisture rich low level profile,
combined with daytime and differential heating will allow for
scattered shower and some thunderstorm development.

The cold front is expected cross the area on Monday, allowing for a
return of greater coverage of showers and storms across the region.
Chances decrease only slightly on Tuesday thanks to the front
stalling just to our south, and then starting to make headway north
again by the late afternoon.

Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will average five
to ten degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Tuesday...

Thunderstorms will be affecting TAF sites early his period,
especially along and west of the Blue Ridge. Terrain and outflow
will play a big role in storm formation and make specific timing
difficult in TAFs. Will use generous duration tempo groups and
amend when convection becomes more certain. Expect storms to
diminish with loss of heating, though there remains enough
forcing in moist environment to keep showers/rumble of thunder
going overnight especially from the mountains of NC up through
the Shenandoah valley. Plume of low level moisture will also
work up the mountains and foothills with some low stratus/fog
affecting KBCB and KROA, and possibly KLYH and KDAN as well.
KLWB may also experience some LIFR cigs/vsbys late tonight if
they get some rain then break out and cool late. Heating
tomorrow will reinvigorate convection with widespread
showers/thunderstorms affecting TAF sites from mid morning on.

Winds will generally be light outside of thunderstorms.

.Extended Aviation Discussion...

Probability for showers/thunderstorms will increase associated
with southward sagging front and moisture streaming north from
the Gulf of Mexico.

Weather pattern will remain summerlike through the week.
Daily threat for numerous afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms with MVFR ceilings and visibilities will continue
through the end of the week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 940 PM EDT Monday...

Additional record warmth remains possible on Tuesday.

May 15th      Record Highs....Record Warm Lows
Roanoke Va    92 in 1962 ......65 in 1963
Danville VA   95 in 1985 ......64 in 2009
Lynchburg VA  93 in 1900 ......65 in 1905
Blacksburg VA 88 in 1985 ......60 in 2004
Bluefield WV  85 in 1988 ......62 in 2013

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MBS/AMS
CLIMATE...AMS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
507 AM EDT Tue May 15 2018

VAZ019-020-024-WVZ507-508-161000-
Alleghany VA-Bath-Rockbridge-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
507 AM EDT Tue May 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Virginia and
southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening across northern and central Virginia and West Virginia. The
primary threat from any severe storms will be damaging winds and
large hail. Heavy rain and frequent lightning will accompany the
storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday through
Friday. Heavy rain is likely with any of the storms and localized
flooding is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>018-022-023-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-161000-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Roanoke-Botetourt-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-
Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-
Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
507 AM EDT Tue May 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday through
Friday. Heavy rain is likely with any of the storms and localized
flooding is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
340 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             4 NNE ROANOKE           37.33N 79.92W
05/15/2018  E0.25 INCH       ROANOKE            VA   PUBLIC

            PEA SIZE HAIL

&&

MBS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
340 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

VAZ010-013-WVZ042-152030-
Pulaski-Bland-Mercer-
340 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
WEST CENTRAL PULASKI...BLAND AND SOUTH CENTRAL MERCER COUNTIES...

Until 430 PM EDT

At 340 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Bland, moving
northeast at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bluefield...
Bland...
Princeton...
Bastian...
and Rocky Gap.

LAT...LON 3739 8110 3729 8099 3727 8101 3718 8090
      3718 8089 3716 8087 3711 8081 3705 8098
      3705 8103 3702 8111 3704 8113 3702 8117
      3715 8127
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 240DEG 7KT 3711 8114

JR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
347 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             2 SSW PILOT             37.03N 80.39W
05/15/2018  E0.25 INCH       MONTGOMERY         VA   PUBLIC

            PEA SIZE HAIL

&&

MBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
348 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 ESE SPEEDWELL         36.78N 81.08W
05/15/2018                   GRAYSON            VA   PUBLIC

            BRUSH CREEK REPORTED OUT OF ITS BANKS, WITH WATER OVER
            BRUSH CREEK ROAD IN SPOTS.

&&

HYSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
350 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HAIL             5 SSW TROUTVILLE        37.36N 79.92W
05/15/2018  E0.25 INCH       BOTETOURT          VA   PUBLIC

            PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL

&&

MBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
352 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     HAIL             ROANOKE                 37.28N 79.96W
05/15/2018  E0.25 INCH       CITY OF ROANOKE    VA   PUBLIC

            PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT CAMPING WORLD

&&

MBS