Flash Flood Warning 105, NWS Blacksburg, VA

583 
WGUS71 KRNK 222256
FFSRNK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
656 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2018

VAC019-023-067-161-770-775-230030-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.W.0105.000000T0000Z-180923T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Roanoke VA-City of Salem VA-City of Roanoke VA-Bedford VA-
Botetourt VA-Franklin VA-
656 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM EDT FOR 
ROANOKE...WEST CENTRAL BEDFORD...SOUTHERN BOTETOURT AND NORTHWESTERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...THE CITY OF SALEM AND THE CITY OF ROANOKE...

At 648 PM EDT, two to  three inches of rain has fallen from 
thunderstorms, heaviest in the Poages Mill and Cave Spring area. 
Roanoke County warning point reported the intersection of Cotton 
Hill Road and Merriman Road in Cave Spring had water running over it 
from excessive rains. Several smaller creeks have experienced rises, 
with a trained spotter reporting the Back Creek near Starlight Lane 
in Boones Mill is nearly overflowing its banks. Though heavy rains 
have shifted east into central Bedford County, additional rainfall 
from Floyd County may affect southern portions of Roanoke and 
northern Franklin Counties.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Roanoke...
Salem...
Vinton...
Stewartsville...
and Bent Mountain.

This includes The following Locations The Salem Fairgrounds and
Roanoke Regional Airport.
 
Additional rainfall amounts of up to an inch are possible in the 
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as
well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding,
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather Service
by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and
pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3736 7972 3714 7976 3712 8018 3729 8016
      3737 8000

$$

Loconto

625 
WGUS71 KRNK 230031
FFSRNK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
831 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2018

VAC019-023-067-161-770-775-230040-
/O.EXP.KRNK.FF.W.0105.000000T0000Z-180923T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Roanoke VA-City of Salem VA-City of Roanoke VA-Bedford VA-
Botetourt VA-Franklin VA-
831 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR 
ROANOKE...WEST CENTRAL BEDFORD...SOUTHERN BOTETOURT AND NORTHWESTERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...THE CITY OF SALEM AND THE CITY OF ROANOKE HAS
EXPIRED...

A Flood Warning has been issued as additional rainfall moving from 
the southwest may trigger additional flooding impacts. Excessive 
rainfall capable of flash flooding has since ended. Therefore the 
Flash Flood Warning has been expired. Please continue to heed any 
remaining road closures.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding,
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather Service
by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and
pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.

LAT...LON 3736 7972 3714 7976 3712 8018 3729 8016
      3737 8000

$$

Loconto

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
328 PM EDT Sat Sep 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front extends from Richmond VA west to Jackson KY
and south to the Arkansas-Louisiana border this afternoon. This
front will move south into the Carolinas tonight. Potential for
showers and thunderstorms exist through this evening with the
possibility of locally heavy rain. Behind the front, a surge of
cooler temperatures will arrive just in time for the fall
equinox which begins tonight (9:54 PM EDT).

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Saturday...

A cold front has enter the northern part of the forecast area
(Lewisburg WV to Lynchburg VA) this afternoon. This front has
helped trigger convection over the mountains. Being in a moist
environment, dew points in the 60s and PWATS around 1.50 inches
(2 standard deviations above normal), heavy downpours are
expected from storms this afternoon and evening. With weak mid
level winds, storms this afternoon and evening will move slow
and could train over the same areas leading to flash flooding
from the New River, Roanoke and southern Shenadoah Valleys to
the foothills of southwest Virginia. A Flash Flood Watch is in
effect for these area until midnight tonight. Despite the
potential for heavy rain, river forecast centers are not
expecting any of the forecast points to go above action stage at
this time. One river they are keeping an eye on is the James
River. Severe storm potential is low despite warm temperatures
and increasing instabilities as better difluence is north of the
area (Mason-dixon line). However, we can not rule out a wet
micro-burst from a few storms going into this evening. At this
time, SPC does not have the area outlooked for widespread severe
thunderstorms.

The front will wedge south along and east of the Blue Ridge
overnight. The portion of the front to the west (West Virginia
into eastern Tennessee) may remain stationary through the day
Sunday. Waves tracking along this portion of the front could
keep the potential for heavy rain ongoing overnight into Sunday.
At this time, it appears stronger storms will stay west of a
line from Bluefield to Rainelle WV. The threat for heavy rain
decrease by midnight, however, light rain/drizzle is possible
for everyone as warm moist air overruns the wedge into the day
Sunday.

Cool northeast winds will send temperatures down into the low
to mid 60s tonight. Ongoing light rain, drizzle and
northeasterly flow through the day Sunday, temperatures may only
warm a few degrees from overnight lows. Seems fitting since
Sunday is the first full day of Autumn.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 125 PM EDT Saturday...

Short wave tracking out of the southern plains will cross the
Tennessee Valley and Mid Atlantic region Sunday night and
Monday. This will aide in lift along with isentropic forcing and
increasing southeast upslope surface to 850 MB winds on Monday.

Models similar with the wedge through Monday and suggest wedge
erodes ad warm front retreats back to the north by Tuesday
afternoon. Higher probability of precipitation ahead of the next
cold front will arrive in the mountains early Wednesday,
perhaps a bit slower according to the 12Z/GFS.

Very small diurnal variation in temperature within the wedge
Sunday night through Monday night. Will lean towards MOS
guidance on Tuesday with temperatures mainly back in the 70s
south of the warm front.

Confidence was average for all elements.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1210 PM EDT Saturday...

Two surface cold fronts cross through the Mid Atlantic region.
The first on Wednesday and Thursday, then the next on Friday.
Similar to the front today, as the upper pattern flattens to
westerly zonal flow, the fronts move east much farther and
faster than to the south. The cold front on Wednesday and
Thursday will have enough convergence and moisture along and
ahead of the boundary before it stalls and dissipates for
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The re-
enforcing front on Friday may have enough of a southern push to
have relatively drier and modestly cooler air over West Virgina,
Virginia and northern North Carolina on Saturday. Overall the
more significant change in air mass remains well north of the
region.

Confidence was average Wednesday and Thursday and below average
Friday and Saturday for all elements.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Saturday...

A cold front will approach from the north this morning,
crossing the forecast area this afternoon and evening. Expect
winds to shift to the northeast with the passage of the front,
with some gusts this evening and early tonight.

Front will be the focus for widespread showers and
thunderstorms...especially this afternoon and evening per
increasing CAPE from daytime heating. Storms this afternoon will
be robust with potential for localized heavy rain and
thunderstorm outflow.

Front is forecast to move south of the region tonight before
stalling over the southern Appalachians Sunday. Wedge of high
pressure will impinge from the northeast tonight, this stable
airmass running underneath the moist boundary layer resulting in
the development of widespread low level stratus which will
likely linger over the mid-atlantic region for the next several
days, cig forecasts then favoring MVFR or lower.

Extended Discussion...

Stationary front over the southern Appalachians will be the
focus for widespread cloud cover through mid week with potential
for rain, low cigs/vsbys.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Between a half inch /0.50/ to an inch and a half /1.50/ of
rain is forecast during the next 12 hour period ending 12AM
Sunday. Heaviest of the rain is being forecast within the New
River basin and into the headwaters of the Roanoke, James, and
Dan Rivers. Given the wet antecedent conditions, river rises are
anticipated with potential for these rivers to reach bankfull
if basin average approaches 1.50 inches. If basin averages
exceed 2.00 inches then some minor flooding is possible.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ010>020-
     022>024-032>035-043.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...RCS
HYDROLOGY...RCS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
147 PM EDT Sat Sep 22 2018

VAZ010>020-022>024-032>035-043-231800-
Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-
Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-
Bedford-Amherst-Henry-
147 PM EDT Sat Sep 22 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, south
central Virginia, southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009-044>047-058-059-WVZ042>044-507-508-
231800-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-
Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Western Greenbrier-
147 PM EDT Sat Sep 22 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a slight risk for excessive rainfall today. Showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be very rain efficient
and may cause localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

RCS