Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
159 PM EDT Thu Aug 30 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front will make it to the mountains by tonight and linger
there through Friday. Upper level ridge rebuilds over the
weekend and into the next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM Thursday...

Cold front is very slowly sagging southward across West
Virginia this afternoon. Showers and storms will continue into
this evening and some storms may contain strong gusty winds as
well as torrential downpours. Short Corfidi Vectors supports
backbuilding cells and this has already been observed with the
ongoing convection. Will continue to monitor for localized flash
flooding in areas of training and slow moving cells and continue
to highlight in HWO.

Front makes it to the mountains tonight, but will not push much
further than that. It will linger over the area tomorrow and
likely be the focus for more showers and storms across the
Eastern CWA tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 AM Thursday...

Overall drier weather on Friday with frontal boundary across far
southern zones. Still the possibility of storms during the day
Friday, particularly in vcnty of front, and across the higher
terrain. Showers and storms continue over the weekend, as well
as hot and humid conditions, with several upper disturbances
moving across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 225 AM Thursday...

Hot and humid conditions will remain across the area with upper
ridge dominating the weather across the eastern U.S. There will
remain at least a chance of showers and storms in the forecast
during the period from weak passing disturbances, and daytime
heating.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 140 PM Thursday...

Heavy showers and thunderstorms through this evening for all
Eastern TAF Sites as a cold front continues to push eastward
across West Virginia. These storms could bring brief IFR
conditions as they pass overhead, as well as gusty erratic
winds.

Showers and storms come to an end tonight, then the question
will be if fog or stratus sets in. All forecast guidance at this
time is indicating VLIFR fog in the valleys through early Friday
morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of restrictions due to thunderstorms
may vary from forecast. Fog or stratus development overnight may
differ than current forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    L    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    L

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions possible under showers and thunderstorms Friday
afternoon across the mountains.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPK/SL
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MPK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
916 AM EDT Thu Aug 30 2018

VAZ003-004-WVZ008-013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526-311330-
Dickenson-Buchanan-Jackson WV-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-
Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-
Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
916 AM EDT Thu Aug 30 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, and
portions of central West Virginia, northeast West Virginia,
northern West Virginia, southeast West Virginia and southern West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon. Some storms will
contain strong gusty winds and heavy downpours. Localized flash
flooding will also be possible with these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
221 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2018

WVZ016-301845-
Roane-
221 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ROANE COUNTY...

At 221 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles northwest of
Amma, or 12 miles south of Spencer, moving east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Amma, Left Hand, Looneyville, Walton and Tariff.

This includes Interstate 79 between mile markers 22 and 33.

LAT...LON 3868 8117 3867 8116 3864 8116 3864 8114
      3856 8114 3853 8119 3853 8123 3852 8127
      3854 8131 3855 8143 3867 8144 3873 8117
TIME...MOT...LOC 1821Z 270DEG 11KT 3862 8138

HART

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