Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
338 PM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Rounds of showers and thunderstorms can be expected throughout
the work week. Coverage decreases some for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 915 AM Tuesday...

Trimmed PoPs across the east leaving them over southeast OH and
northeast KY per latest radar images. Continue monitoring the
eastern quadrant of our CWA for a potential flash flood watch
needed. Rest of forecast remains on track.

As of 250 AM Tuesday...

Showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase across the area
again today. Upper trough/low across the midwest will deepen today,
with a surface low pressure system moving northeast out of the
Tennessee Valley into Ohio and the Great Lakes region, with
attendant frontal boundary lifting north across the area. Upper
disturbances moving through the flow, will enhance shower and
thunderstorm activity at times today, with greatest chances/best
support looking to be across NE KY and southeast OH zones. Heavy
downpours are expected once again today in any convection. Wettest
area in the CWA looks to be generally across an area from southern
Wayne county northeast into Barbour county, and it's possible,
depending on the evolution of convection today, that a FFA may be
needed for these areas. Have elected to hold off for now, and let
the day shift evaluate the evolution of convection today.

In terms of the convection today, there exists the possibility of
severe, and a marginal risk has been issued for the entire CWA by
SPC, due to strengthening winds aloft, along with backed low level
flow and average 40 kts 0-6km bulk shear. Damaging winds are the
primary hazard, however, with the aforementioned shear and low level
flow pattern, a brief tornado cannot be totally ruled out. There is
however, the possibility that too much cloud cover, and activity
early on could limit destabilization, and thus prevent storms from
becoming too strong to allow for stronger winds aloft to reach the
surface or for more organized development.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 PM Tuesday...

Area remains in the east side of a trough, allowing a continuous
flow of deep moisture over the region. This will allow for
rounds of showers and thunderstorms throughout the workweek.
Precipitable water approaches 2 inches at times. With the
ground is already saturated from previous rains, concerned with
the threat of flash flooding developing.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 325 PM Tuesday...

The trough to the west will weaken over the weekend, killing
some of the southern moisture inflow. Enough moisture will
remain so that some showers and thunderstorms are possible,
mainly during the afternoon and evening hours through the
weekend and into the beginning of the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM Tuesday...

Numerous showers and scattered storms will continue to move
north northeast across southeast OH, into the WV in the
beginning of the period. MVFR and brief IFR visibilities can be
expected along the strongest storms. Any storms will be capable
of heavy downpours, and strong gusty winds. All convection
should decrease after 00-03Z Wednesday, but areas of MVFR/IFR
fog or low stratus are expected to form, particularly after 06Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and storm today may vary
from current forecast. More widespread MVFR and IFR conditions
may be possible in post rain fog and stratus late tonight than
currently forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms through Friday,
mainly during the afternoons and evenings. IFR in post-rain fog
and stratus will be possible each of these nights.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RPY/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
314 AM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526-010715-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-
Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-
Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
314 AM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Heavy downpours are expected in convection today and tonight.
Localized flash flooding issues are possible.

In addition, there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms today.
Damaging winds are the primary threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy downpours, are expected
for much of the week. Localized flash flooding issues are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
357 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0212 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MILTON                  38.43N  82.13W
07/31/2018                   CABELL             WV   911 CALL CENTER

            RECEIVED REPORTS FROM 911 CALL CENTER OF MANY POWER
            LINES AND TREES DOWN IN THE AREA. ONE REPORT OF A TREE
            FALLING DOWN ON A HOUSE. 911 CALL CENTER ALSO MENTIONED
            A RADIO TOWER FOR THE MILTON FIRE DEPARTMENT WAS BROUGHT
            DOWN BY THE STORM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1800251

MEK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
408 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2018

WVZ028>030-521-312045-
Northwest Webster-Lewis-Gilmer-Braxton-
408 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL GILMER...SOUTH
CENTRAL LEWIS...BRAXTON AND NORTH CENTRAL WEBSTER COUNTIES...

At 408 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Gassaway, or 8
miles west of Sutton, moving east at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sutton, Gassaway, Burnsville, Flatwoods, Exchange, Heaters, Wilsie,
Rosedale, Falls Mills, Frametown and Ireland.

This includes Interstate 79 between mile markers 62 and 80.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3863 8093 3879 8096 3891 8051 3869 8040
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 256DEG 40KT 3871 8086

KISTNER

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