Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
222 PM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Frontal boundary in vicinity into the weekend with showers and
storms. Drier early in the work week. Cold front late Wednesday
brings rain chances back to the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 150 PM Friday...

Nearly stacked low pressure system moving from central IL into
IN with a warm front extending across central OH into
central/northern WV. A cold front extends through IN into
central KY. As the surface low pressure system moves through IN
and into the Great Lakes tonight into tomorrow, the warm front
is expected to linger across the northern forecast area, and
then we will see the cold front moving through Saturday. Have
the highest POPs this afternoon across the north near the warm
front, with more scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight and
tomorrow as moisture thins out a bit. Instability is fairly
limited today and we did not get much thunder this morning, but
with some peaks of sun early this afternoon we have built
enough instability to give a bit more thunder. Have not seen
anything in the way of strong storms yet, but cannot rule out
some taller storms with gusty winds. Instability should be
limited again tomorrow with only isolated to scattered garden
variety thunderstorms possible.

Precipitable water remains high today -- 2"+. Any shower and
storm will be capable of heavy rainfall. A flash flood watch
continues across the northern half of the forecast area into
tonight. While not notably low, lower precipitable water values
are expected tomorrow, in the 1.5" range. Do not plan to extend
watch into tomorrow at this point, giving the next shift a
chance to see how showers and storms change ground saturation
levels today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 210 PM Friday...

Zonal flow and the active pattern across the region will
diminish through the long term with upper level ridging building
to the southwest. Expect column drying to some extent as the
heights increase and high pressure increases over the Great
Lakes. Until then, the chances for showers and storms,
especially Saturday night through Sunday night, remains in play.
Expect the PWATs to come down just a bit, but still running at
very summer like values around 1.5 inches.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 210 PM Friday...

Upper ridging in control through mid week, with temperatures
increasing slightly during this time. Upper level wave/cold
front brings the next rain chances in for later on Wednesday
through Thursday as stout ridging rebuilds over the Mississippi
Valley. This may end up as a precursor to some very hot weather
beyond the extended time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Friday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will provide periods of MVFR
to IFR into tonight. Amendments will likely be needed to
account for these as the approach terminals. Expect a decrease
in coverage of showers tonight, but cannot rule out a shower
here and there. Went with some fog from CRW up towards EKN, but
confidence is not great on this with lots of clouds around.
Expect another day with scattered showers and thunderstorms
tomorrow.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and level of restrictions may vary
in showers and thunderstorms through the period. Fog formation
tonight is uncertain.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    H    L    H    H    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
Brief IFR conditions expected in afternoon thunderstorms
through the weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Saturday for WVZ007>011-
     014>020-027>032-039-040-519>526.
OH...Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>086.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MZ/26
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
527 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>086-WVZ007>011-014>020-027>032-039-040-
519>526-230930-
Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Mason-
Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-
Ritchie-Doddridge-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-Upshur-
Barbour-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster-
Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-
Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
527 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Ohio
and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005-006-013-024>026-033-034-
515>518-230930-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Lincoln-Mingo-Logan-Boone-McDowell-Wyoming-Northwest Raleigh-
Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-
527 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, portions
of southeast Ohio, southwest Virginia, and portions of southeast
West Virginia, southern West Virginia and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

If thunderstorms move over the same area repeatedly Friday, flash
flooding could result.

In addition, a few thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts
and/or large hail this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
614 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018

OHZ075-085>087-WVZ007-222245-
Athens-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence-Mason-
614 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MEIGS...
GALLIA...SOUTHEASTERN ATHENS...NORTH CENTRAL LAWRENCE AND
NORTHWESTERN MASON COUNTIES...

At 613 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 7 miles south of Albany to 9 miles
northeast of Lake Vesuvius. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Point Pleasant, Gallipolis, Pomeroy, Rio Grande, Coolville, Rutland,
Mason, Tuppers Plains, Waterloo, Middleport, Chester, Syracuse,
Hartford City, Henderson, Vinton, Cheshire, Adamsville, Lakin,
Dyesville and Darwin.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect. Heavy downpours could cause
rapid rises in water. If rising water is observed, move to higher
ground. Do not drive into areas covered by water.

LAT...LON 3885 8250 3885 8245 3893 8245 3903 8237
      3903 8232 3912 8231 3927 8175 3873 8222
      3866 8264
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 249DEG 27KT 3913 8223 3873 8254

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
620 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018

WVZ005-013-024>026-222245-
Boone-Lincoln-Logan-Wayne-Mingo-
620 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MINGO...LINCOLN...
SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE...LOGAN AND WESTERN BOONE COUNTIES...

At 620 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Kiahsville to Coleman. Movement was
east at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Williamson, Madison, Logan, Chapmanville, Man, Delbarton, Ranger,
Gilbert Creek, Mount Gay-Shamrock, Harts, Gill, Mallory, Hinch,
Julian, Spurlockville, Chief Logan State, Holden,
Amherstdale-Robinette, Red Jacket and Chattaroy.

This includes Route 119 between mile markers 1 and 62, and near mile
marker 64.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3755 8197 3755 8204 3753 8205 3756 8208
      3755 8213 3759 8213 3762 8218 3765 8218
      3763 8221 3766 8224 3768 8230 3779 8235
      3809 8242 3830 8185 3776 8174 3775 8176
      3770 8172 3767 8180 3757 8184 3751 8193
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 253DEG 34KT 3805 8231 3746 8219

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
644 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018

OHZ085-086-WVZ007-222315-
Meigs-Gallia-Mason-
644 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MEIGS...NORTHEASTERN
GALLIA AND NORTHWESTERN MASON COUNTIES...

At 643 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Rutland, moving
east at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm. With saturated
grounds, trees could fall.

Locations impacted include...
Pomeroy, Rutland, New Haven, Mason, Middleport, Syracuse, Hartford
City, Cheshire, Lakin, Salem Center, Dexter, Letart and Kyger.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect. Heavy downpours could cause
rapid rises in water. If rising water is observed, move to higher
ground. Do not drive into areas covered by water.

LAT...LON 3890 8229 3909 8229 3914 8194 3887 8193
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 262DEG 13KT 3900 8219

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
709 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018

WVZ028-030-039-222330-
Upshur-Lewis-Braxton-
709 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN LEWIS...
NORTHEASTERN BRAXTON AND NORTHWESTERN UPSHUR COUNTIES...

At 706 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Weston to Sutton. Movement was east
at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms. With
saturated grounds, trees could fall.

Locations impacted include...
Buckhannon, Weston, Sutton, Stonewall Jackson, Flatwoods, Lorentz,
Sand Run, Heaters, Walkersville, Ireland, Hodgesville, Horner and
Falls Mills.

This includes Interstate 79 between mile markers 60 and 75, and
between mile markers 85 and 104.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect. Heavy downpours could cause
rapid rises in water. If rising water is observed, move to higher
ground. Do not drive into areas covered by water.

These storms have also shown weak rotation, so they may intensify,
Be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television
stations for additional information and possible warnings from the
National Weather Service.

Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the
roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross
safely. Move to higher ground.

LAT...LON 3873 8042 3873 8046 3864 8052 3864 8077
      3909 8048 3911 8033 3910 8025 3911 8024
      3909 8017
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 254DEG 11KT 3905 8043 3865 8070

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
713 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018

WVZ011-020-031-222345-
Doddridge-Harrison-Tyler-
713 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT DODDRIDGE...EAST CENTRAL TYLER
AND NORTHWESTERN HARRISON COUNTIES...

At 712 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near West Union, or
19 miles southeast of Middlebourne, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm. With saturated
grounds, trees could fall.

Locations impacted include...
Salem, West Union, New Milton, Wallace, Smithburg, Lima, Blandville,
Center Point, Sedalia, Avon and Canton.

This includes Route 50 in West Virginia between mile markers 51 and
67.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect. Heavy downpours could cause
rapid rises in water. If rising water is observed, move to higher
ground. Do not drive into areas covered by water.

Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the
roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross
safely. Move to higher ground.

LAT...LON 3947 8071 3948 8067 3946 8067 3947 8064
      3944 8060 3945 8058 3943 8058 3944 8056
      3943 8054 3944 8051 3946 8051 3947 8049
      3945 8041 3915 8063 3923 8084 3950 8074
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 202DEG 21KT 3927 8070

12