Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
241 PM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Frontal boundary in vicinity into the weekend with showers and
storms. Cold front late Sunday or Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM Wednesday...

Firmly in the warm sector, with front stalled to our north. A wave
of low pressure will move along this front today into tonight,
with an upper level shortwave trough crossing overhead. With
very humid airmass, thunderstorms are already popping up across
the forecast area. Models continue to show that most widespread
thunderstorm coverage will be across the northern half of the
forecast area, so have maintained highest POPs there, with
scattered wording farther south. It looks like the best shear
will not arrive until after the atmosphere has been worked over
by todays showers and storms, so not really expecting organized
strong to severe storms however any taller storms will be
capable of strong to severe outflow gusts. Precipitable water
values today in the 2+ inch range, so like the last few days,
downpours are likely and could lead to isolated flash flooding.
Do have some spots that got hit pretty good yesterday, which
reduced flash flood guidance to under 1.5". Debated a flash
flood watch across the north, but decided against it since storms
should be moving along OK, with less training/backbuilding than
we saw yesterday.

Overnight, expect the frontal boundary to our north to gradually
sink south and stall somewhere across the forecast area. For
Thursday, we will begin to see forcing arrive from the large
stacked low pressure system in the Missouri and Mississippi
River Valleys. This should bring lots of overrunning clouds and
renewed showers and storms as moisture advection picks up again.
With the abundant clouds, instability will be limited. Main
concern will be additional moderate rainfall. Thankfully it
looks like the main area of higher QPF will be slightly
displaced from the heaviest QPF today. Will let todays showers
and storms play out before making any decision on a watch for
Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...

A stalled frontal boundary will gradually lift northward as warm
front during the day on friday. With the soupy airmass over us
any showers or thunderstorms that develop will produce very
heavy downpours. This will continue the flash flood threat over
the entire area. A low pressure system moving through the
Great Lakes region Friday night into Saturday will push a cold
front through the area. Continuing the threat for heavy
downpours and possible flash flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 240 PM Wednesday...

Cold front exits the region on Sunday, with cool high pressure
building in behind it. High pressure will stay in control
through Wednesday with drier weather and warmer temperatures
increasing each day.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM Wednesday...

Showers and storms on the increase this afternoon, but hard to
time restrictions to any TAF site. Expect amendments will be
needed as the day progresses, as any storm could contain IFR.
Showers and storms should decrease overnight, but decent cloud
cover should linger. This poses a bit of a problem with fog
formation, but with abundant moisture and minimal flow opted to
include fog to a varying degree at each site. Also, any stray
showers overnight could cause variable conditions.

Expect a fairly slow recovery Thursday morning, with IFR
gradually lifting into a MVFR cloud deck and showers/storms once
again on the increase by mid to late morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Amendments likely for thunderstorms
restrictions. Timing and density of fog tonight may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    M    L    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
Brief IFR conditions expected in afternoon thunderstorms
through the weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...MZ

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
228 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2018

OHZ076-WVZ009>011-019-020-201900-
Washington-Doddridge-Ritchie-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-
228 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2018

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL
WASHINGTON...PLEASANTS...NORTHERN RITCHIE...NORTHWESTERN DODDRIDGE...
TYLER AND NORTHEASTERN WOOD COUNTIES...

At 226 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near Sistersville,
or 8 miles northeast of St. Marys, moving east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Parkersburg, Marietta, St. Marys, Middlebourne, Vienna, Williamstown,
Paden City, Sistersville, Pennsboro, Belmont, Boaz, Mineralwells,
Newport, Matamoras, North Hills, Ellenboro, Friendly, Fly, Alma and
Maxwell.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 Interstate 77 in West Virginia between mile markers 170 and 186.
 Interstate 77 in Ohio between mile markers 1 and 3.
 Route 50 in West Virginia between mile markers 7 and 41.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to travel across
flooded roads. Find alternate routes. It takes only a few inches of
swiftly flowing water to carry vehicles away.

LAT...LON 3958 8089 3960 8085 3956 8082 3956 8081
      3955 8079 3954 8078 3951 8074 3947 8071
      3948 8067 3932 8068 3918 8156 3941 8156
      3958 8112 3957 8104 3954 8104 3961 8095
TIME...MOT...LOC 1826Z 271DEG 12KT 3948 8108

21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
252 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2018

WVZ011-019-020-030-031-201930-
Doddridge-Harrison-Ritchie-Lewis-Tyler-
252 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN RITCHIE...
DODDRIDGE...NORTHERN LEWIS...SOUTHEASTERN TYLER AND HARRISON
COUNTIES...

At 252 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near West Union, or
11 miles south of Middlebourne, moving east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clarksburg, Shinnston, Stonewood, Nutter Fort, Salem, Pennsboro,
Lumberport, West Union, Jackson Mill, Enterprise, West Milford, Lost
Creek, Jane Lew, Pullman, Alma, Wolf Summit, Mountain, Lima, Center
Point and Sedalia.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 Interstate 79 between mile markers 102 and 111.
 Route 50 in West Virginia between mile markers 42 and 80.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to travel across
flooded roads. Find alternate routes. It takes only a few inches of
swiftly flowing water to carry vehicles away.

LAT...LON 3943 8028 3942 8025 3905 8039 3917 8103
      3944 8089 3945 8058 3943 8058 3944 8056
      3943 8054 3943 8052 3945 8052 3945 8037
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 278DEG 15KT 3933 8088

21