Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
247 PM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will drift south into the region today, providing
showers and thunderstorms. Unsettled weather remains through the
weekend as the front remains in the vicinity.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 210 PM Tuesday...

Not a whole lot of changes in the overall forecast from this
morning. Cold front is currently draped across Northern West
Virginia and will continue to sag southward this afternoon and
evening. However, this boundary eventually stalls this evening
and retreats back to the north. Expecting on going numerous
thunderstorms out ahead of this front, with activity growing as
we near max heating for the day. Although wind shear is weak,
instability is quite high with a very moist atmosphere in place.
PWAT values close to 2 inches, short corfidi vectors support
training cells and deep warm cloud layer will also elevate the
flash flood threat. However, very tough to pin point an exact
location and a watch will not be issued, but localized flash
flood event is very possible.

Severe potential is modest this afternoon and evening. Biggest
threat will be due to wet microbursts. SPC meso analysis
indicates DCAPE values across our Central CWA above 1000...with
PWATs as high as they are, would not be surprised to see a few wet
microbursts from precip loading. However, potential severe
storms should be isolated and probability for any convective
watch appears quite low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...

The main focus for the short term is nearly stacked surface and
upper level lows gradually moving through the Missouri and
Mississippi River valleys mid week, and then into the lower Ohio
River Valley by Friday morning. This system will eventually pick
up a frontal boundary that models show stalled just to our south
and push it north as a warm front Thursday night and Friday. The
surface low should then move into the Great Lakes Friday night
into Saturday as the upper level low opens into a trough. This
will drive a cold front through Saturday. With lots of clouds
around through the short term, temperatures will not be as warm
as earlier in the week, but the very humid air remains and will
lead to areas of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain each
day. Flooding concerns will be on the increase, especially if
the same areas are hit multiple days, or if multiple storms
cross the same basins in a shorter period of time.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...

One cold front should be headed east away from us to start the
period, with a secondary, weaker front sinking toward us from
the Great Lakes. This second front will usher in high pressure
with drier air late Monday into Tuesday. Did keep some lingering
POPs area wide through Monday morning to account for timing
uncertainty, and then kept low end POPs across the far south
into Tuesday -- closer to the surface boundary. Used a
consensus blend for temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 140 PM Tuesday...

Showers and storms are popping up across the region as a cold
front moves in from the north. These showers and storms could
bring brief IFR periods to sites, but will have to handle this
with amendments when it appears one may pass overhead.

Depending on what sites see rainfall and the extent of cloud
cover tonight, dense river valley fog will be possible at any
terminal that receives rain.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of convection today may
vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR conditions expected in thunderstorms throughout the
week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MZ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...MPK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
310 AM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-013>020-026>032-
039-040-515>526-200715-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-
Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-
Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Boone-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-
Taylor-Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-
Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-
Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-
Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-
Southeast Randolph-
310 AM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A few thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could produce
damaging wind gusts.

In addition, if thunderstorms move over the same area repeatedly,
flash flooding could result.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

If thunderstorms move over the same area repeatedly Wednesday, flash
flooding could result.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

VAZ003-004-WVZ024-025-033-034-200715-
Dickenson-Buchanan-Mingo-Logan-McDowell-Wyoming-
310 AM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia and
southern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

If thunderstorms move over the same area repeatedly Wednesday, flash
flooding could result.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
539 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2018

WVZ015-192215-
Kanawha-
539 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL KANAWHA COUNTY...

At 538 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Charleston,
moving southeast at 40 mph. Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size
hail are possible with this storm. Torrential rainfall is occurring
with this storm, and may cause localized flooding. Do not drive your
vehicle through flooded roadways.

Locations impacted include...
Charleston, South Charleston, Montgomery, Chesapeake, Marmet, Belle,
Cedar Grove, East Bank, Glasgow, Pratt, Coal Fork, Handley, Dawes,
Sharon and Pond Gap.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 Interstate 79 between mile markers 1 and 2.
 Interstate 77 in West Virginia between mile markers 96 and 105.
 Interstate 64 in West Virginia near mile marker 57.
 West Virginia Turnpike between mile markers 69 and 95.
 Route 119 between mile markers 77 and 80.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is also occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3805 8137 3828 8174 3841 8164 3830 8124
      3829 8124 3821 8128 3818 8132 3818 8133
      3808 8135
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 305DEG 36KT 3831 8162

16

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
548 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0534 PM     HAIL             FORT HILL               38.35N  81.65W
06/19/2018  E0.88 INCH       KANAWHA            WV   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER FROM CAR IN AREA OF CORRIDOR G AND
            CANTLEY DR

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1800096

MEC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
606 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CHARLESTON              38.35N  81.63W
06/19/2018                   KANAWHA            WV   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF MINOR WATER ISSUES. WATER PONDING
            ON ROADWAY ON MORRIS AND LEE IN DOWNTOWN. WATER ALSO
            FLOWING OFF HILLSIDE AND COVERING ROAD WITH AROUND AN
            INCH OF WATER IN ST ALBANS AREA. HIGH, THOUGH NOT
            FLOWING, WATER ALSO REPORTED IN AREA OF KANAWHA CITY
            COMMUNITY CENTER NEAR CHAPPEL BRANCH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1800097

MEC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
611 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KANAWHA CITY            38.32N  81.58W
06/19/2018                   KANAWHA            WV   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CALLER REPORTS 6-8" DIAMETER TREE LIMB DOWN, BLOCKING
            ROADWAY NEAR VENABLE AND 46TH. TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1800098

MEC

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