Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
217 PM EDT Mon May 28 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather continues into mid week, as remnants from
Alberto push northward.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Monday...

A line of convection has fired roughly along a line from KCRW
to KEKN as band of precipitation associated with an outer spiral
band of Alberto looms to our south. Also, noted on sat imagery
that there as a fetch of moisture working up the Appalachians
and it appears that this feature is going to remain just to our
east as 3h jet maxima passes over. Aforementioned band should
continue to creep northward into the late night hours with
precipitation with scattered showers for the southern
coalfields. Will keep mention of some nocturnal shower activity
through tonight, generally staying in line with HRRR.

There was very little variation amongst the guidance in terms
of max and min temps so mainly used a consensus of the short
term models blended with the previous forecasts which resulted
very little change to the temp forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 217 PM Monday...

The remnants of Alberto will track northward with the center
of the system expected to remain to our west through Wednesday
night. Current thinking is that whatever is left of Alberto
will be over the Great Lakes Wednesday night.

Southerly flow to the east of the system will continue to push
warm very moist air into our region. Latest GEFS model
continues to show a PWAT anomaly of 3 to 4 standard deviations,
with values near 2 inches on Wednesday. Forecast soundings are
strongly suggesting deep moist convection will be possible with
efficient warm rain processes.

Will likely need a Flood watch for portions of our area.
However, confidence in where and how widespread convection may
be remains low at this time. Will continue to mention the flood
threat in the HWO...especially with the wet antecedent
conditions across parts of the region already.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 217 PM Monday...

The warm moist airmass is expected to remain in place across the
region until a mid-level trof and associated cold front push
southeast on Saturday.

However, unsettled weather is expected to continue through the remainder
of the period as an upper trough remains nearby.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM Monday...

Scattered convection with heavy downpours and IFR along a line from
KCRW to KEKN this afternoon with cells showing some retrograde
motion. There may isold-sct showers into the later evening
hours. Enough moisture in place, along with weak gradient flow
to allow for a repeat of fog development after 10z. Conditions
should improve to mostly VFR after 15Z Tuesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of brief periods of IFR under heavy
showers possible.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 05/25/18
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
Tropical moisture could bring more widespread IFR Wed and Thu.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...KMC

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
132 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2018

WVZ521-522-281800-
Southeast Webster-Northwest Webster-
132 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN WEBSTER COUNTY...

At 131 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Addison
(Webster Springs), or near Webster Springs, moving west at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Webster Springs, Addison (Webster Springs), Diana, Hacker Valley,
Bergoo, Waneta and Erbacon.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3841 8032 3853 8062 3871 8045 3861 8023
      3857 8021
TIME...MOT...LOC 1731Z 109DEG 7KT 3854 8032

09

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
222 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2018

WVZ016-027-028-030-039-040-519-521-522-525-526-281900-
Barbour-Southeast Webster-Clay-Northwest Randolph-Roane-Northwest
Webster-Northwest Nicholas-Upshur-Lewis-Braxton-Southeast Randolph-
222 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN
RANDOLPH...NORTH CENTRAL NICHOLAS...SOUTHEASTERN LEWIS...BRAXTON...
UPSHUR...SOUTHEASTERN ROANE...NORTHERN WEBSTER...SOUTH CENTRAL
BARBOUR AND CLAY COUNTIES...

At 222 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Dailey to 9 miles east of Clay.
Movement was northwest at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Elkins, Sutton, Clay, Gassaway, Mill Creek, Dailey, Birch River, Big
Otter, Rock Cave, Holly River State, Wallback, Harrison, Beverly,
Junior, Flatwoods, Womelsdorf (Coalton), Huttonsville, Alexander,
Procious and Eden.

This includes Interstate 79 between mile markers 32 and 71.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause elevated levels on
small creeks and streams, and ponding of water on country roads and
farmland along the banks of creeks and streams.

LAT...LON 3832 8095 3849 8125 3850 8124 3853 8120
      3853 8128 3902 8002 3881 7970
TIME...MOT...LOC 1822Z 119DEG 13KT 3882 7985 3844 8091

09

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
410 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2018

WVZ013>015-282045-
Kanawha-Lincoln-Putnam-
410 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL KANAWHA...SOUTHERN
PUTNAM AND NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES...

At 409 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Dunbar, or near
Charleston, moving northwest at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Charleston, Nitro, Winfield, Jefferson, South Charleston, St. Albans,
Dunbar, Poca, Cross Lanes, Alum Creek, Institute, Tornado, Teays
Valley and Bancroft.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 Interstate 77 in West Virginia between mile markers 99 and 102.
 Interstate 64 in West Virginia between mile markers 38 and 57.
 Route 119 between mile markers 65 and 80.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause elevated levels on
small creeks and streams, and ponding of water in urban areas,
highways, streets and underpasses, as well as other poor drainage
areas and low lying spots.

LAT...LON 3855 8188 3836 8159 3823 8170 3822 8173
      3821 8172 3820 8173 3821 8176 3822 8176
      3823 8178 3822 8179 3832 8206
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 122DEG 14KT 3833 8175

09