Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
941 PM EDT Sun May 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface boundary across north could bring scattered thunderstorms
thru tonight. Unsettled pattern dominates the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 940 PM Sunday...

Will make some minor tweaks to sky cover and pops based on
current radar and satellite trends.

As of 130 PM Sunday...

Tricky forecast as the quasi stationary boundary moves south to
north through tonight. Because of uncertainty on the location
of the front, kept chance PoP across central WV, likely PoPs
across extreme northern WV and dry PoPs across the southern
third of the area.

By Monday morning the frontal boundary should drop south at the
same time with a upper level disturbance. This kicking mechanism
could aid convective initiation across the north slowly sinking
south. There is a slight risk for severe weather tomorrow
morning. Coded chance PoPs with this feature.

Sfc based CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg suggest enough bouyancy,
however soundings show a cap in place. The best shear continues
to remain north of the forecast area, but with 30-40 kts of
bulk shear should a storm break through the cap it should be
able to sustain an updraft and potentially become strong to
severe.

Despite precipitable water values nearing 2 inches across the
north, expect coverage to be low enough to limit flash flood
concerns. For temperatures, went with the bias corrected MOS
values for lows tonight, and the bias corrected SREF for highs
on Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 225 PM Sunday...

Really not many changes in the overall forecast thinking for the
start of the work week. Lots of instability in place with the
chance for thunderstorms. Models keep the stationary boundary
draped within our vicinity. Moisture will increase the next few
days and dew points could climb into the low 70s by Tuesday, so
with available surface moisture and EML plume remaining
overhead, it is not surprising to still see model soundings
showing 1500 - 2000 J/Kg of CAPE. Storm development will depend
on timing of any subtle perturbations moving through the
westerly flow. Temperatures will remain above average through
the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM Sunday...

As with the last few forecasts, no changes to the extended with
the unsettled conditions persisting through the long term
period. Will have to monitor the trends in the forecast of the
upper low that pulls northward out of the Gulf of Mexico the end
of this week. This system has potential to bring some tropical
moisture and heavy rain into the region that could produce some
flash flooding.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 650 PM Sunday...

Some thunderstorms will move across central Ohio and northern WV
this evening. Outside of the thunderstorms, expect VFR
conditions. Some patchy fog could form late tonight in areas
that receive rainfall this evening. Thunderstorms will be
possible again on Monday, mainly in central Ohio and northern
WV.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of thunderstorms this
evening could vary. Areas that receive rainfall this evening
could see some overnight fog.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 05/14/18
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
Brief periods of IFR possible in showers and storms through the
week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...ARJ/RPY
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...RPY

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1021 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2018

OHZ084-140245-
Vinton-
1021 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL VINTON COUNTY...

At 1021 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 12 miles west of
Mcarthur, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 45 mph and nickel size hail are possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Allensville.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3928 8276 3932 8275 3934 8273 3926 8250
      3918 8261 3919 8265 3920 8265 3920 8269
      3927 8276
TIME...MOT...LOC 0221Z 301DEG 18KT 3929 8271

30

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